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Fantasy owners love prospects, especially shiny new toys that they've never had an opportunity to play with before. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was drafted very highly last season, but his fantasy production didn't really live up to his draft-day cost even after Toronto finished playing service time games with him. This year, Luis Robert is poised to provide the same lack of return on investment.
At the same time, fantasy owners can be skeptical of quality performances that weren't predicted by the prospect hounds. Christian Walker had a very good season last season, and his peripherals suggest that he could be even better in 2020. However, he's generally taken outside of the top 200 picks.
Here is a closer look at the numbers that have led the author to the conclusions above:
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Christian Walker (1B, ARI)
ADP: 216
Walker slashed an impressive .259/.348/.476 with 29 HR and eight stolen bases (against one CS) in 603 PAs, but you wouldn't know it from the attention he's getting in fantasy circles. His MiLB career supports his status as a power-hitter, as Walker hit 18 HR in just 359 PAs at Triple-A in 2018 and 32 in 592 PAs there in 2017. The speed admittedly came out of nowhere, but his success rate suggests that there's no pressing reason to stop him.
Walker's detractors will likely point to his 25.7 K% as a reason he won't repeat 2019, but his plate discipline peripherals are better than that. First, Walker had an outstanding 25.2% chase rate last season that allowed him to walk an impressive 11.1 percent of the time. Despite this, he was not passive at the plate (48.7 Swing%) and his 12.7 SwStr% was effectively league-average. It says here that Walker will continue to work walks while trimming a couple of points off of his K%, creating BA and OBP upside.
Statcast also supports Walker's 2019 production. His airborne batted balls averaged 95.2 mph last season, an impressive amount of oomph that accompanied a well-above-average rate of Brls/BBE (13.1%). His .516 xSLG was considerably higher than his actual mark, suggesting that any regression would be in Walker's favor.
Similarly, Walker's xBA of .263 was virtually identical to his actual mark. His .312 BABIP might seem a little high for a slugger, but he has no significant pull tendency (59.6 Pull% on grounders) and hit a respectable .273 in 132 PAs against the shift last season. His 38.4 FB% also isn't high enough to damage his BABIP in the manner associated with players like Joey Gallo.
Walker is currently projected to hit 5th for a surprisingly deep Arizona offense, so he should get his fair share of counting stat opportunities. Add it all together, and the only real knock on the 29-year-old is that he's 29 and only just made a major league impact. Take the profit and hope Kevin Cron doesn't get an opportunity to showcase what he can do.
Verdict: Champ (based on solid peripherals and dirt-cheap cost)
Luis Robert (OF, CWS)
ADP: 96.6
In contrast, the 22-year-old Robert first faced advanced competition last year. A quick look at his numbers reveals why fantasy owners are enthralled with him: .314/.362/.518 with eight homers and 21 steals (six CS) in 244 PAs at Double-A, and then .297/.341/.634 with 16 HR and seven steals (three CS) in 223 PAs at Triple-A. Added together, you get a .300+ average and 20/20 counting stats with the upside for more.
Unfortunately, there are serious red flags in both of those small sample sizes. Robert's plate discipline wasn't great at Double-A (5.3 BB%, 22.1 K%), and he relied heavily on a .384 BABIP to put up the numbers he did. That's fine: maybe he's a high-BABIP guy. However, his 49.1 FB% and 31.3 IFFB% (roughly 15.5% on the MLB scale) both suggest a low-BABIP profile, and his 9.6% HR/FB isn't high enough to produce 20+ homers without a very high FB% mark. In short, Robert either needs to stop hitting so many flies to be a high-BABIP player or trade his average for power. He's can't do both yet.
Robert's plate discipline was even worse at Triple-A (4.9 BB%, 24.7 K%), suggesting that even more advanced pitchers might eat him alive. He upped his HR/FB (21.6%) to pair with his very high FB% (49.3%), but that may have had more to do with his environment than anything he did. Triple-A Charlotte had a HR Factor of 1.297 last season, ranking in the 99th percentile of the entire MiLB system. Considering that the introduction of the MLB ball turned Triple-A as a whole into a hitter's paradise, any stats put up in the 99th percentile for offense should be taken with several grains of salt.
Scouts seem to think that Robert will need an adjustment period as well. While FanGraphs gives Robert 65-grade raw power and 70-speed, his current hit tool is below average (40) while his game power is average (50). Those grades are expected to increase to 50 and 60 in the future, but that only matters in keeper and dynasty formats.
Furthermore, Baseball Savant's scouting report praises Robert for "electric bat speed, well-above-average raw power and speed, and the upside of solid tools across the board" but also expresses "swing-and-miss concerns" and notes that "he will need to improve his plate discipline to realize his offensive potential." It goes on to comp him to fellow White Sox farmhand Yoan Moncada, who notably disappointed fantasy owners for his first couple of seasons.
Roster Resource has Robert as Chicago's eight-hole hitter, a role that wouldn't lend itself very well to counting stats. Considering that reliable bats such as Yasmani Grandal (98.4 ADP), Carlos Correa (101.4), Michael Conforto (104.2), and Rhys Hoskins (105.4) are being taken in the same round as Robert, hoping for the latter's upside carries a significant opportunity cost. Let somebody else roll the dice on his 2019 MiLB numbers.
Verdict: Chump (based on poor plate discipline, extreme batted ball profile, and high cost)
