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Chris Clegg's fantasy baseball dynasty buy lows, sell highs, and news for Week 12 (2024). Notable prospects debuts, risers and fallers, and trends to watch.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my Week 12 fantasy baseball news, notes, and buys/sells for dynasty leagues. Thanks for bearing with me. Due to the birth of my daughter, I am much more sleep-deprived, but I am ready to rock and roll with new dynasty news and notes!
Today's article will look at recent prospect call-ups like Drew Thorpe, Hurston Waldrep, and Tyler Locklear, along with several other dynasty-related news. This weekly series will take a look at various prospects, dynasty news, and discuss fantasy implications. If you enjoy dynasty baseball, you know it is a fast-paced game. Keeping up with the Joneses per se keeps you in the game and at the top of the standings. At the end of the day, we all want to build a dynasty team that sustains and lasts for the long haul. I am here to help you do so.
Keeping up with all the current happenings can help you stay ahead of your league mates. Call-ups, trends, and buying and selling players are all just small pieces to help you stay ahead. So, that's what we will do in this article each week, break down everything you need to know to be successful in dynasty. Let's get to it, what do you need to know for dynasty leagues in Week 12 of the 2024 season?
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Recent MLB Prospect Call-Ups
Talk about a fun week of call-ups for top prospects. Over the last week, we had four top 100 prospects get the call for their MLB debut.
Drew Thorpe tossed a masterful debut for the White Sox after making the jump from Double-A to the majors. After tossing 60 innings in Double-A with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, the White Sox deemed him ready for the bigs and that looked like the case in his start against the Mariners.
Thorpe tossed five innings of one-run ball, striking out four and walking two. Thorpe won't overpower anyone with a big fastball; in fact, he averaged 91.3 mph. But the changeup plays extremely well off the pitch, which allows it to play up. The changeup sits at 82 mph, but it is not a traditional changeup.
It has excellent ride, looking like the fastball until the last 10 feet when it loses velocity and dives to the arm side. If you look on Baseball Savant, you will see Thorpe's changeup averaged 7.6 inches less of horizontal drop than the average changeup. But that is fine because it plays extremely well. The 12.6 inches of fade happen late and generate whiffs.
The good news is that Thorpe is not just a two-pitch arm, he also has a cutter and a legit slider. The slider comes in two variations, a longer horizontal moving sweeper and a more traditional shorter breaking shape. They come in two different velocity bands as well.
Maybe you think it will be hard for an arm that averages 91-92 mph to succeed in the majors, but Thorpe has defied the odds since he began his pro career and should continue to do so thanks to his unique arsenal.
Drew Thorpe, Filthy 85mh Changeup. 😷
1st MLB K pic.twitter.com/QYHBHBD7pJ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 12, 2024
Hurston Waldrep has dominated since he got his first two starts of the year out of the way, posting a 1.68 ERA across 48.1 innings with 52 strikeouts and 13 walks, earning his MLB debut. He was smooth sailing through three innings of his debut before things went haywire a bit in the fourth. A walk and a single before giving up a three-run home run to Keibert Ruiz. Waldrep probably should have been pulled before the home run but then stayed in after and things fell apart.
It starts with the fastball for Waldrep, which plays well at the top of the zone, averaging above 95-96 mph, but can get up to 99. It does not get much horizontal movement, but with nearly 16 inches of IVB, it will play, considering the velocity and the secondaries.
Waldrep’s splitter is nasty and was probably the best individual pitch in the 2023 draft class and one of the best secondaries in the minors. It can range from 85-89 mph and completely falls off the table with a ton of separation from the fastball.
The slider shows flashes of being plus, but I would like to see him throw it more to keep hitters on their toes. He was a bit predictable and seemed to lose confidence in his stuff as the MLB debut wore on, but long-term, I am still very in on Waldrep.
Hurston Waldrep's day is complete
6IP 5H 3ER 1BB 11KHe was fantastic - generating 22 whiffs to just 3 hard hit balls. pic.twitter.com/ciCxrlhC19
— Gaurav (@gvedak) June 2, 2024
Tyler Locklear earned the call in the wake of the Ty France injury, but there is a chance he can stick all year. After slashing .293/.404/.520 between Double-A and Triple-A, Locklear earned the call. He mashed nine home runs across 51 games and put up massive exit velocities, shown by a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 107 mph.
So far in Locklear's debut, he is hitting .250 with a home run and double. He has the chance to stick in the lineup due to Ty France's injury but may even get more run than that if he continues to hit. There are some contact concerns, but when Locklear connects, he mashes. I would look to add Locklear in 15-team leagues, and that may expand to 12 and 10-teamers if he hits.
Welcome to the show, Tyler Locklear! 100 mph double that traveled 380 feet.
— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) June 9, 2024
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Trends to Watch: Bat Speed and Exit Velocities
Bat speed has been the hot talk since the data released on Savant. Here are the biggest risers and fallers from May to June.
Bat Speed Risers
| Name | May Bat Speed |
June Bat Speed |
Delta |
| Bryan Reynolds | 71.9 | 75.4 | 3.5 |
| Pete Alonso | 74 | 76.8 | 2.8 |
| Amed Rosario | 69.7 | 72.1 | 2.4 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 71 | 73 | 2 |
| Francisco Lindor | 71.5 | 73.2 | 1.7 |
| Jose Altuve | 69.1 | 70.6 | 1.5 |
Bat Speed Fallers
| Name | May Bat Speed |
June Bat Speed |
Delta |
| Brandon Lowe | 74.4 | 71.8 | -2.6 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 75.2 | 72.6 | -2.6 |
| Luis Rengifo | 70.6 | 68.2 | -2.4 |
| Javier Baez | 74.9 | 72.7 | -2.2 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 74 | 72.3 | -1.7 |
| Juan Soto | 75.7 | 74.2 | -1.5 |
Average EV Risers
| Name | May AvgEV | June AvgEV | Delta |
| Shea Langeliers | 88.7 | 93.2 | 4.5 |
| Starling Marte | 85.8 | 89.9 | 4.1 |
| Brice Turang | 87.8 | 91.4 | 3.6 |
| J.D. Martinez | 87.2 | 90.6 | 3.4 |
| Nolan Schanuel | 89.2 | 92.6 | 3.4 |
Average EV Fallers
| Name | May AvgEV | June AvgEV | Delta |
| Andy Pages | 89.7 | 86.1 | -3.6 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 90.7 | 89.9 | -0.8 |
| Johan Rojas | 90.7 | 87.4 | -3.3 |
| Luis Campusano | 89.7 | 86.8 | -2.9 |
| Nico Hoerner | 91.2 | 88.6 | -2.6 |
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Buys and Sells
Bailey Ober is certainly not returning the price you paid to get him in drafts. Checking in with a 5.13 ERA on the year with 65 strikeouts in 66.2 innings is far from ideal, considering the last two seasons combined, Ober posted a 3.37 ERA. His walk rate is up 1.5 percent, which may not seem like much, but Ober is also not missing more bats and his K-BB% is down over two percentage points.
Under the hood, things still look okay, as Ober has an xERA of 3.98. His changeup and slider are both missing more bats than they did in 2023, and Ober added a cutter this year, which has played well. When you look at the game log, it is just a couple of games that have soiled his overall season line. I wouldn't say Ober has impressed by any means recently, but better days are ahead for the command specialist.
Triston McKenzie has not pitched great by any means, but I would try to cash out while you can. On the surface, things look okay as he has a 4.10 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 68 innings. Under the hood, things get pretty ugly. McKenzie's fastball velocity is down nearly 2 mph and he is getting hit quite hard on it with a .294 batting average against on that pitch.
McKenzie has one of the worst average exit velocities and barrel rates against and his command and walk rates have been very bad. His FIP of 5.63 and xFIP of 4.93 are significantly higher than his overall ERA. McKenzie may not have much value, but given the drop in velocity, I have some worries about an injury and would probably cash out before it is too late.
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