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Starting pitcher Chris Bassitt was traded to the New York Mets in March, ahead of the 2022 MLB season. What is the fantasy baseball impact of this move and what is his outlook?
The Oakland Athletics and New York Mets have clearly been on opposite sides of the offseason from the beginning. The A's are in sell mode and the Mets are seemingly buying any player they can get their hands on as they aim to make a playoff push in 2022.
More evidence of this was given shortly after the lockout, as Chris Bassitt was traded to the Mets for a couple of minor leaguers.
Lots changes for Bassitt here, moving the whole way across the country and into the National League. Let's talk about what this means for his fantasy prospects in 2022.
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Recent Success
2021 was a really strong year for the righty, and really the step forward happened prior to the 2020 season. In these last two seasons, here's what Bassitt has done.
- 220 innings
- 38 starts
- 17 wins
- 2.90 ERA
- 1.15 WHIP
- 8.7 K/9
- 2.3 BB/9
- 3.75 K/BB
- 0.86 HR/9
The only thing number there that isn't really good is the strikeout rate, but he makes due with just fine because of the limited walks and homers.
The biggest driver of these successes is the marked improvements in K% and BB%. Check out his career progressions in those metrics:
What you see here is a steadily declining walk rate with an increasing strikeout rate. Both of those lines have been heading in the correct directions, and the rest of his numbers have followed from there.
Deep Arsenal
The guys that have tons of success despite a lower strikeout rate typically are throwing the kitchen sink at hitters, and that is the case with Bassitt. Last year, he threw six different pitches. Check out the stats here:
You can see that he leads the way with a sinker that performs what I would call "fine". It's a lower GB% for a sinker and a pedestrian SwStr%. The massive difference in CSW% and SwStr% shows you how well he controls the pitch. He gets tons of called strikes with it, and for the most part avoids the barrel with the offering.
There is little doubt that the presence of the four-seamer and the cutter breed success among all of his pitches. Having three different fastballs to throw at hitters is a huge plus, as it keeps opponents on their toes even when the actual pitch by itself is pretty hittable. He posted a huge 13.1% SwStr% with the four-seam last year, certainly helped by how well he tunnels it with the sinker and cutter. You just don't know which of those three fastballs is coming at you out of the hand.
His putaway pitch is the slider, which has a decent SwStr% at 17.4%. That is a much higher mark than the fastballs, mind you, but sliders typically post SwStr% numbers above 15%, so this isn't a fantastic number.
All of this is to say that none of his pitches are amazing by themselves, but the arsenal is so deep and works together so well. Given what we see here, it's tough to not see Bassitt having continued success. Is he really a guy that will continue to post a sub-3.00 ERA? I don't think so, but below 3.50 should not be much of a problem.
Team Context
Unfortunately for Bassitt, the National League no longer has the DH advantage for pitchers switching leagues. The divisional context is pretty similar. The American League West has had that one elite offense (Houston), and then not much else to write home about. The National League East seems to be shaping up the same way, with only the Braves being a real problem for Mets pitchers.
As for the ballpark, it's a slight downgrade. Bassitt was benefited by a ballpark that suppresses homers. By my numbers, the Oakland Coliseum was sixth-friendliest in terms of how often fly-balls go for home runs. The good news is that Citi Field is right in the middle of the pack there, so this isn't a huge downgrade by any means.
Expectation
All things considered, I call this a neutral move for Bassitt. The schedule and ballparks are similar enough to not make any big waves, and he does end up with a better supporting cast around him. Bassitt has shown no signs of being injury-prone (of course, that can change in a blink!), and has logged a nice supply of innings since 2019. He's a solid guy to add to the middle of your fantasy rotation, although he does lack a strikeout ceiling. I would really love to pair him with a high-upside, slightly more volatile starter earlier on.
Happy drafting, everybody!
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