Cheap-But-Good QB-WR Stacks in Redraft

July 30, 2020

Antonio Losada takes a look at some QB-WR groups from the same teams worth stacking in redraft fantasy football drafts for the upcoming 2020 season, including the Bengals, Seahawks, and Bills.

When it comes to daily fantasy football, stacking players from the same team and offense on concrete weeks is a sound strategy. That is why elite DFS folks out there use that plan on a weekly basis. Data shows how around 80% of the best DFS results come from squads that stacked at least two players from the same team, so there is that. No wonder stacking is the way to go and a staple in DFS contests and best ball drafts.

That doesn't mean you can pull this off in redraft, season-long leagues. While there are no restrictions in terms of who make the players pool in DFS matches (every player is available to every gamer), redraft leagues are based on taking players off a common board. That means the odds of drafting all three of Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and Drew Brees (three players expected to finish inside the top-20 of 2020 PPR leagues) are virtually zero.

Even with that caveat, there is still plenty of value out there to stack and take advantage of without overpaying too much or altering your draft strategy overboard. Today, I'm highlighting some QB-WR groups worth stacking given their projections and the price (ADP) they could be gotten at. Let's get to it!

Some Notes on the Methodology

First of all, I'm basing the following picks on PPR-format, 12-team leagues. Although it is common knowledge, I have calculated the average ADP for each position and the results (at the time of this writing) for them are as follow:

• Top-12 QBs combined average ADP: 68.4 (6th round)
• Top-24 RBs: 20.3 (2nd round)
• Top-24 WRs: 36.1 (3rd round)
• Top-12 TEs: 78.9 (7th round)

That means that most probably the quality of the players in your draft will follow the RB>WR>QB>TE order. Keep that in mind when you plan ahead your stacking strategy. Try to load on great expensive players first before they get off the board (RBs/WRs) and then try to find potential stacks that pair well with them in late rounds (TEs/QBs in this case).

For the purposes of this column, I'll be playing it safe. I've set a house-rule in that if I pick one player with an ADP lower than the average for the position I'll be forced to pick its partners from outside of the average ADP of those players' positions. For example, if I pick Patrick Mahomes (ADP lower than 68.4) I won't be able to pick Tyreek Hill (ADP lower than 36.1) and/or Clyde Edwards-Elaire (ADP lower than 20.3).

Seattle Seahawks (Russell Wilson > Tyler Lockett > D.K. Metcalf)

This is the only one of the three teams/picks that I have included in the column in which we'd be drafting an "above average" player: QB Russell Wilson. Wilson's ADP of 64.5 (QB5) would limit me (following the rules explained above) to not draft any other above-average Seahawk. Good for me, none of them are getting drafted inside that group of players at the wide receiver position and in fact they currently have ADPs of WR19 and WR21.

Scoring this three-part stack would be bonkers. It'd probably mean spending high draft picks on back-to-back selections of both Lockett and Metcalf given their close ADPs (both inside the fifth round) and also getting a little bit lucky in terms of how other fantasy GMs see them. The upside of this group, though, is really high. All three players project to reach 188+ PPR points in 2020 (using PFF projections). Only six teams in the whole NFL project to have a QB/WR/WR trio reaching that mark each.

Wilson has been a top-10 QB every year he's played and a top-5 one in two of the past three seasons. Just last year he finished as the QB3 and third-best player overall with 330.6 PPR over the year (4110 passing yards, 31 TDs, 5 INTs; 342 rushing yards, 3 TDs. Metcalf was far from a world-beater but had a tremendous rookie year that went for 187.1 PPR points (WR33) thanks to his 900 yards and 7 TDs on 58 receptions. Lockett was as efficient as always, racking all of his 235.2 PPR (WR13) points in just 82 receptions for 1057 yards and 8 TDs.

Cincinnati Bengals (A.J. Green > Tyler Boyd > Joe Burrow)

Stacking Bengals is a risky business, that's for sure. First of all, Joe Burrow is the no. 1 pick from the 2020 draft but still a rookie quarterback. While PFF has Burrow projected to 269.0 fantasy points, that would mean he's about to have the 13th-best rookie-QB season since 2000, on par with those of Jameis Winston, Andrew Luck, or Russell Wilson. That's a high bar to clear, but Burrow comes with both passing and rushing prowess so it shouldn't be too surprising watching him get there.

Moving on to the receivers, both Green and Boyd are getting off the board at virtually the same point (at the time of this writing) with ADPs separated by fewer than two picks inside the seventh round. Given that Burrow could be an affordable late-round pick (ADP QB19; 11th round), you can focus on getting Green and Boyd a little earlier in the early-mid rounds. The risk here is mostly about picking Green and hoping he stays healthy enough to sustain a full 16-game season of playing time. If that's the case, then you could easily be drafting a 200+ PPR stud to pair with another one in Boyd.

Last year, when playing a prominent role in the Bengals offense, Boyd finished the season with 222.9 PPR points good for WR18. He caught 90 passes for 1046 yards and 5 TDs while being targeted 148 times over the year. Although the targets might come down, they will mostly go Green's way, which is what makes this stack very appealing. Green missed all of 2019 but the last time he was on the field in 2018 he averaged 16.6 PPG in 9 games (would have finished with 265.6 PPR if translated to a 16-game schedule). Cincinnati will find itself down in the scoreboard often and that makes for a good case to all three players to rack up points on the passing game (plus the rushing side of it for Burrow).

Buffalo Bills (Josh Allen > Stefon Diggs  > John Brown > Cole Beasley)

Although Josh Allen's ADP is not considered "above-average" among quarterbacks (eighth round), he's close enough to consider him as such. In fact, he's currently the QB8 off the board, so it makes sense to treat him like that. That being said, all of the other three highlighted players (all WRs Diggs, Brown, and Beasley) have ADPs outside of the top-24 wide receivers getting drafted for 2020 at the time of this writing. Such has been Diggs' addition to the team in terms of the impact he's caused to his teammates' valuations.

While Diggs has become the best receiver of Buffalo and there is no doubt he's above John Brown on pure talent, the latter's ADP has plummeted all the way down to 124.8 (11th round) making him one of the best late-round value picks at the position. Don't be too worried if you need to reach a bit for Josh Allen, as he fits the passing&rushing QB profile that thrives these days and PFF projects him to break the 270-fantasy point mark in 2020 and finish as the QB7.

By the time you draft Allen you probably would have had to get Diggs, as he shouldn't make it past the fifth or sixth rounds of any draft. Diggs will be the no. 1 WR of Buffalo, projects to reach 184.5 PPR points, and comes from having a great season even playing under Kirk Cousins in a run-first offense. As for Brown, he's being completely overlooked while still projecting to 156.3 PPR points next season. Beasley is a little bit more of a waiver pickup at this point with an ADP of 206.3, and stacking four players from the same offense might not be too clever. Even then, Beasley has one of the highest floors for receivers not being drafted at all and PFF has him reaching 115.1 PPR points next season.

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