RADIO
Rick Lucks analyzes Jose Peraza, Martin Prado and Tyler Anderson to see who will have continued success in the 2016 season and which players will see a regression for the rest of the year.
Thanks to the new splits tab on Fangraphs.com, we now have access to BABIP data by batted ball type for pitchers. This is a useful tool for determining whether a speedy batter has been fortunate, and I expect this new data to tell us how much a pitcher is benefiting from or being hindered by his defense. For example, if a Kansas City pitcher's BABIP is low primarily due to BABIP suppression on ground balls, their outfielders will not make it sustainable. Without knowing about the grounders, we might have concluded that KC's OF made the low BABIP sustainable.
Public service announcements aside, this week we are continuing to profile players who are widely available and may be able to help you down the stretch. After recommending Michael Conforto as a power option last week, this week I offer a SB play (Peraza) and a batting average one (Prado). If you play in a roto league, one of the three should address your needs. I also have another pitcher (Anderson), because we fantasy owners never have enough of those.
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The Fantasy Jury Is Out
Jose Peraza (2B/SS/OF, CIN)
Peraza has long been on the fantasy radar thanks to elite speed and competent production in the minor leagues, but he hasn't yet had a full MLB season to show us what he can do. With only 134 PA this year, he still doesn't. However, his current .318/.343/.395 triple slash line with 13 steals and a pair of homers have certainly whet my appetite for more from Peraza.
Peraza's excellent batting average is rooted in a .355 BABIP, in turn propped up by a 29.1% LD%, a number he certainly will not sustain even if he turns out to be a plus line drive guy. Overlooking this for a moment, Peraza projects to have a plus BABIP profile. He is very fast, and may be able to improve his .289 BABIP on ground balls going forward. There is no reason to think he can't sustain his current BABIP on them, if nothing else. He seldom hits the ball in the air (30% FB%) and pops up even less (3% IFFB%). A .330ish career BABIP in the minors completes the profile of a guy who should not need to settle for a league average BABIP.
The LD% is coming down, but I don't think it will have too great an impact. His .625 BABIP on line drives is well off the league's .681 mark. It is possible that the system is misreading some fly balls as line drives, driving down Peraza's line drive BABIP while inflating his LD%. If this is the case, regression can occur without any actual change in his production. If it's not the case, Peraza may get positive regression on the productivity of his liners as they begin to perform closer to the league average. Either way, the effects of the declining LD% will be diluted.
Peraza's BABIP has every chance to matter for fantasy owners because he has flashed some noteworthy contact skills. His 12.7% K% is outstanding, supported by a very strong 92.7% Z-Contact%. His 8% SwStr% is higher than it should be thanks to a 39.5% O-Swing%, but it still supports a strong K rate moving forward. His 1.5% BB% is outright bad as a result of the inflated chase rate, but his minor league history suggests something close to league average may be in the long term realm of possibility. For now, his BABIP should be high enough to give him plenty of SB chances.
Peraza has gone 13 for 16 in MLB SB opportunities this season, a solid success rate. Going 10 for 17 at Triple-A before his call up is considerably less impressive, but the year before saw him go 36 for 43 across three stops, with a personal best of 64 SB (15 CS) back in 2013. The speed is real. The Reds also enjoy running quite a bit, as they stuck with Billy Hamilton when stealing bases was the only thing he was good for. As a result, I expect Peraza to have a fairly long leash with the organization.
The Reds have bounced Peraza all over the place this year, allowing him to accumulate 12 games each at SS and the OF with nine more at 2B. He came into the year with 2B eligibility, making him an outstanding bench option for the H2H playoffs. You can plug him into almost any lineup if you need a SB boost, and can replace him easily if you can't realistically win the category. He has also hit all over the batting order, with his time in the second slot being the most interesting for fantasy counting stat purposes.
The Reds are rebuilding and Jay Bruce is gone, so Peraza should see plenty of the field over the rest of the year. We fantasy owners love our SBs, and yet Peraza is currently owned in only 5% of FleaFlicker leagues. That number should be a lot higher.
Verdict: Champ
Martin Prado (3B, MIA)
Yaaaawwn. Prado is quite possibly the most boring fantasy asset to own. He always hits for a plus batting average and a little bit of pop with very little upside to do anything more. It is easy to forget that he even exists. Did you know that he is hitting .317/.372/.429 with seven dingers this year? I didn't, but the batting average boost over his usual .290ish range takes him from a solid batting average asset to an excellent one. I'm guessing a lot of people haven't noticed, judging by his 34% ownership rate on FleaFlicker.
The batting average boost is rooted in a .344 BABIP. That, and the 24.9% LD% that supports it, may scream regression to you. However, Prado has bested the league average BABIP in each season since 2013, so it looks like a sustainable skill for him. He has also seen his FB% (30% to 26.2%) and IFFB% (13.6% to 5%) decline relative to last season, further suggesting an increased BABIP. By batted ball type, only Prado's grounders (.284) are outperforming their career level (.263), and it isn't even by that much. There is no reason to expect Prado to fall apart over the final month.
Batting average guys need a strong BABIP and to not strikeout, and Prado is even better at the second part of the equation than the first. His tiny 10.1% K% is completely supported by his minuscule 3.4% SwStr%. His 81.1% O-Contact% is higher than a lot of the league's Z-Contact% numbers, while his 97.2% Z-Contact% is elite. He even has a good eye, with a 7.9% BB% on the strength of a 27.4% O-Swing%.
In light of injuries to Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Bour, the Marlins have been hitting Prado either second or third every night. He is probably miscast in the role, but fantasy owners will happily accept strong counting stats to go with their batting average play. DFS players may also want to note that Prado is hitting .446/.526/.598 against LHP this season. Prado may be boring, but this brand of boredom is an asset for your fantasy squad.
Verdict: Champ
Tyler Anderson (SP, COL)
I have clearly lost my mind. Two straight columns recommending a Colorado pitcher? While Jonathan Gray's K upside makes him worth rostering despite some ERA risk, Tyler Anderson is an option for solid ratios and Ws. So far, he has gone 5-5 with a 3.43 ERA and 3.41 xFIP. Even more impressively, he has tamed Coors to a 3.11 ERA.
Coors Field has three things that make it a nightmare for pitchers. The balls fly farther due to the altitude, allowing even unimpressive flies to go over the fence. Anderson has a ground ball tendency (53.5% GB%) that not even altitude can turn into home runs. The park also inflates BABIP due to the inability of most outfielders to cover all of the ground intended to control the effect of the first point. Once again, Anderson's grounder inclination mitigates this for him. Finally, breaking pitches do not break as much at altitude, robbing most pitchers of one or more weapons.
But not Anderson. According to PITCHf/x, he only throws a curveball 1.1% of the time and a slider 1.6% of the time anyway. His repertoire consists of a heater (42.2% usage), a cutter (23.8%), and a change (28.9%). All three are fine at altitude. They also boast strong GB% numbers, as the heater induces ground balls at a 56.5% clip, the cutter at a 60% clip, and the change at 49.3%. This is probably the ideal pitching mix at Coors Field.
Strikeouts can be hard to come by without some kind of breaking pitch, but Anderson's change is great for Ks. Its 20.8% SwStr% and 41.7% chase rate are excellent and are the primary reason Anderson has above average K% (22.3%) and SwStr% (11.2%) numbers. Its 44.8% zone% means that he does not even need hitters to chase it all the time. The heater and cutter are not impressive from a strikeout standpoint, instead intended to get Anderson ahead in the count if they do not induce a ground ball. They do this fairly well, as Anderson's 6% BB% is better than the league average.
When I attempted to look at Anderson's minor league history to see if what he is doing is sustainable, I discovered that he really doesn't have minor league history. Elbow problems limited him to 118.1 IP at Double-A in 2014, where he posted a 1.98 ERA and 2.77 FIP. The same injury robbed him of the entire 2015 season, and he only threw about 30 minor league IP, split into three stops, before his call up this year. The Double-A stint suggests that he should be good, but I definitely think the MLB performance trumps anything in the minors for Anderson.
If you're fishing for Ws, the Rockies have a schedule that should help Anderson get some for you. The team has seven games left against the pathetic Padres, six with the imploding Giants, and three each with the Diamondbacks and the Brewers to close out the season. I have no idea who is going to pitch for the Dodgers in the four games they have left against Colorado, and three games against the Cardinals shouldn't be impossible either. It strikes me as a pretty favorable schedule if Coors Field doesn't scare you away.
Anderson has been slightly fortunate thus far to have a 78.1% strand rate, but it is not too much higher than the league's 72% mark. His HR/FB of 14.5% could also stand to improve, though Anderson's ability to keep the ball out of the air means it hurts him less than you might expect. Anderson is streamable at worst in standard leagues and a must start in anything deeper. Why is he only owned in 14% of FleaFlicker leagues?
Verdict: Champ
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