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Are Victor Robles (Mariners OF) and Austin Wells (Yankees C) fantasy breakouts, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.
If you sort your waiver wire by whatever stat you're looking for, the results will be bleak right now. Everybody searches waivers that way, and your rivals have likely picked it clean. This doesn't mean that waivers are a barren wasteland, just that you need to approach it a little more creatively.
One effective approach is to capitalize on players who have solidified lineup roles but haven't played enough for their season totals to reflect it. If you need runs and steals, Victor Robles has cemented his role atop Seattle's order after starting the campaign as Washington's fourth outfielder. If you're looking for HR and RBI, Austin Wells has gone from 50/50 playing time to cleanup man for the Yankees.
Let's take a closer look at what these players offer in fantasy!
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Victor Robles (OF, SEA) 18% Rostered
Robles is slashing .269/.353/.388 with three homers and 16 steals in 156 PAs, not bad for a 27-year-old failed prospect. He's hit first or second in each game since July 20, and the Mariners don't have anyone to feasibly dislodge him. As such, Robles should continue to score runs and steal bases for the rest of the season.
The secret to Robles' newfound success is straightforward: his contact quality is now worthy of a major leaguer. In 2022 (the last time Robles logged 400 PAs), his average airborne exit velocity was a paltry 88.4 mph and his rate of Barrels per batted ball event (Brls/BBE) was a measly 3.2%. This year, those marks are 93.2 mph and 9.2%, respectively. Both are a smidge better than the league average and a vast improvement for Robles.
Robles hasn't hit for much power yet, but his .422 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) is 34 points higher than his actual slugging percentage. He's also pulling more flies with a 39.5% Pull% on flies against a career mark of 29.7%, maximizing his modest raw power. Robles won't be confused for Shohei Ohtani any time soon, but there's a little pop in his bat now.
The added oomph allows Robles to take advantage of the skills he's always possessed. For example, his 28.3% chase rate is nearly identical to his career mark of 28.6%, but his 8.3% BB% is two points higher than his career 6.2% mark because Robles is enough of a threat to keep opposing pitchers honest. He's also adjusted his plate approach, becoming more aggressive (51% Swing% vs. 49.5% career) to reduce his strikeouts (18.6% K% vs. 22.8% career) despite a SwStr% uptick (12.9% vs. 11.7% career).
Similarly, Robles is a high-efficiency base thief. He only has one caught stealing on the season, giving him a success rate of 94% that will earn him the green light even on a Seattle club in the pennant race.
To be clear, Robles isn't as good as his current line. His 37.3% FB% is attached to a 15.8% IFFB%, meaning he hits tons of useless pop-ups that will drag his average down. He also isn't as fast as he used to be, seeing his Statcast Sprint Speed decline from the 87th percentile in 2022 (28.8 ft./sec) to the 63rd percentile this year (27.8 ft./sec).
Still, Robles isn't platooned and leads off for a team that could win its division. He offers the speed fantasy managers crave and has finally learned how to hit big-league pitching. This Champ deserves to be rostered in more than one in five leagues.
Austin Wells (C, NYY) 36% Rostered
Wells is hitting a solid .251/.344/.417 with eight homers in 277 PAs, but the real fantasy appeal is his lineup spot. He's hit fourth or fifth in each start since July 20, meaning the likes of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are setting up RBI opportunities for him. There are few better lineup spots in all of baseball.
Of course, Wells isn't a slouch. The 25-year-old was a top prospect, entering the 2024 season as the No. 2 prospect in the Yankees system per FanGraphs. Here is his scouting report:
Wells doesn't have huge raw power as his 92.1 mph average airborne exit velocity and 7.5% rate of Brls/BBE are both slightly below league average. However, his 41.8% FB% lets him produce usable power numbers despite his 10.5% HR/FB. The approach fits Yankee Stadium's short porch well, and his .440 xSLG suggests power upside beyond what we've seen thus far.
Plate discipline is also a significant aspect of Wells' game but isn't captured by the scouting report above. He currently sports a 12.3% BB% against a 19.9% K%, and both numbers are supported by his 26.7% chase rate and 11.6% SwStr%. Wells gains value in OBP formats and points leagues that care about walks, but his low K% affects his .263 xBA as well.
The biggest knock on Wells is his lack of track record, but he hit well in the minors too. He first cracked the high minors in 2022 with Double-A (Somerset), hitting .261/.360/.479 with 12 HR and seven steals across 247 PAs. His plate discipline was strong with an 11.7% BB% and 23.5% K%, and he elevated the ball with a 44.7% FB%.
Wells returned to Somerset in 2023 and hit .237/.327/.443 with 11 HR and five steals over 263 PAs. The overall line was down because his BABIP fell from .301 to .269, but the important skills were still intact. His plate discipline was strong with an 11% BB% against a 22.8% K%, and his 52.1% FB% was too high if anything.
The Yankees promoted Wells to Triple-A (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) midseason and he responded with a .254/.349/.452 line with five homers and two steals in 146 PAs. Wells' plate discipline was good with an 11% BB% and 23.3% K%, and his 44.1% FB% reinforced his ability to elevate baseballs. We haven't seen Wells much at the MLB level, but he has a consistent track record from his minor league days.
Fantasy managers might be shying away from Wells because he began the season in a 50/50 playing time split with Jose Trevino, who is expected to return from a left quad strain soon. However, manager Aaron Boone said, "So Trevy will play some, but Austin's definitely earned more and more reps." Wells is the catcher in the Bronx and should continue to play full-time.
Catchers stink, and Wells offers power with an average that won't kill you. He also has an outstanding lineup role, making him a clear-cut Champ.
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