Champ or Chump: Tylor Megill

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of New York Mets SP Tylor Megill in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. What should we expect moving forward?

Isn't it amazing what one player can do? Led by Jacob deGrom, the New York Mets appeared poised to waltz into the playoffs after outlasting a mediocre division. With deGrom out for an extended period, the Phillies have surged past them while the Braves currently enjoy a half-game advantage over them. The Mets ace was that important to the team as a whole.

By far the best fill-in for deGrom has been Tylor Megill, who has pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 3.91 xFIP over 45 IP. He has been useful for fantasy purposes as well, but his continued success is far from assured. Megill was drafted 230th overall in the 2018 amateur draft and came into the season as the 23rd best prospect in the Mets thin farm system, so he doesn't have any pedigree as a top prospect. At age 26, he's also older than most of the players who make a fantasy splash.

That doesn't mean that he's hopeless as a fantasy pickup, but you might want to temper your expectations a bit. Here is a closer look at his complete statistical profile.

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MiLB History

As you might expect from a guy who was never a top prospect, Megill's scouting reports were never stellar. Here is what the FanGraphs team had to say about him:

Only two graded pitches suggest a limited repertoire, and neither is regarded highly enough to overcome that or below-average command. MLB.com doesn't even have a scouting report for Megill, so we have to take the above as our sole information point.

Megill has enjoyed success on the farm, though it should be noted that he was generally old for his level. He technically debuted in the High Minors for Double-A Binghamton in 2019, but you shouldn't draw too many conclusions from a sample of five innings. Still, his 45 K% against zero walks was impressive. Megill didn't pitch at all in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, so we're relying primarily on his minor league work this season to get a feel for what he can do.

Megill began the year at Double-A (Binghamton), pitching to a 3.12 ERA and excellent 1.84 xFIP over 26 IP. He was actually really hittable with a .370 BABIP against, but the combination of a 40.4 K% and 8.3% HR/FB allowed him to succeed. He also generally avoided walks with a 6.7 BB%, making him look really good by K-BB%.

The Mets agreed and promoted him to Triple-A Syracuse, where he tossed 14 1/3 IP with a 3.77 ERA and 3.63 xFIP. His K% fell dramatically to 28.3%, though that would still be an impressive number if you didn't know what he did at the Double-A level. His BB% also increased slightly to 8.3%, but he ended up allowing fewer overall baserunners thanks to a much lower .257 BABIP. Ultimately, all of this is a small sample size that may or may not reflect Megill's true talent level.

Welcome to the Show

Megill's greatest strength has been his 25.8 K% and 6.5 BB% at the MLB level, suggesting quality stuff. Megill has primarily thrown three pitches since his big league debut: a fastball 55.3% of the time, a change 23.9% of the time, and a slider 18.2% of the time. He also throws a show-me curve 2.7% of the tie, but we can safely exclude it from our analysis of his arsenal.

Megill's heater has decent velocity (94.6 mph) and a sterling 60 Zone%, but its 6.8 SwStr% isn't great. It also has a middling spin rate of 2,131 RPM - too low to pile up strikeouts a la Max Scherzer but too high to fit a Kyle Hendricks mold. Throwing it is essential to get ahead in the count, but it's risky considering that hitters have a .272 average and .444 slugging percentage against Megill's fastball.

Megill's change is easily his best pitch, generating a 21.7 SwStr% and 43.2% chase rate despite a 49.7 Zone%. Hitters are only hitting .196 when they put his change into play, and its xSLG of .326 is substantially better than its actual mark of .412. His slider has a similar 49.3 Zone%, but its 12.5 SwStr% isn't high enough to support a 21.9% chase rate. Its 2,065 RPM spin rate is only in the 10th percentile for breaking pitches, ranking lower than his mediocre fastball.

If you use Statcast metrics (and you should be), you might be aware that Megill's xERA of 2.82 is even better than his actual mark of 3.20. Unfortunately, the reason why is a microscopic LD% of 13.9%. While pitchers can control the quality of contact they allow, pitchers who do so tend to control their GB% or IFFB% rates while LD% is more of a random statistic. Megill's 44.3 GB% and 3.9 IFFB% don't indicate any repeatable skill behind his contact suppression to date, so it probably shouldn't be counted on moving forward.

Parting Thoughts

Megill is probably a decent big-league pitcher who can chew up innings for the Mets and offer fantasy managers decent numbers if you pick and choose where you use him. He's only rostered in 38% of Yahoo! formats, so he's probably available if you decide you need him. You probably won't need him in the immediate future, however, as his next two projected starts are against the Dodgers (Walker Buehler) and in San Francisco (Anthony DeSclafani).

Moreover, Megill's statistics to date may suggest that he's better than he actually is. His changeup is nice, but his fastball is middling and he doesn't really throw anything else. Don't be surprised if he performs like a Chump over the rest of the season.

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