Champ or Chump: Tylor Megill and JJ Bleday Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

September 17, 2024

Are Mets SP Tylor Megill and A's outfielder JJ Bleday fantasy breakouts, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.

We're down to the final two weeks of the fantasy baseball season. If your standings are close (or you're in the playoffs of a H2H league), any decision could make or break your year. You should do your homework for the best chance at success, but don't beat yourself up if things go awry. Remember, fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun.

Your waiver wire probably looks bleak, especially if you focus on surface stats. Tylor Megill's numbers don't jump off the screen, but he might help down the stretch. On the other hand, JJ Bleday looks like an intriguing power bat but lacks a slugger's profile.

Let's look at what we can expect from these two players.

Tylor Megill, SP, New York Mets

9% Rostered

Megill is 3-5 with a 4.48 ERA in 62.1 IP for the Mets this season. Ordinarily, that wouldn't move the needle in fantasy. However, Megill has a 27% K% and promising ERA estimators whether you prefer FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.92), or xERA (4.18). He's probably the most talented widely available pitcher right now.

The 28-year-old was never a huge prospect, but he's definitely turned a corner. Look at his Statcast metrics compared to 2023:

2024

2023

Megill's xERA is down more than a run and a half. He's also added chase and swing-and-miss to his game without giving up the blue around his contact quality metrics. What did he do to elevate himself like this?

The answer is a complete reworking of his repertoire. First, his fastball velocity increased from an average of 94.9 mph in 2023 to 95.6 mph this year. That might not sound like much, but it's translated to an increase in SwStr% from 9.2% to 11.5%. The offering's Zone% has held steady, so it's a straight improvement.

Second, Megill added three pitches to his arsenal. His new cutter is solid with a 10.8% SwStr% and 53.2% Zone%, while his new sinker performs similarly to his fastball with an 11.8% SwStr% and 54.4% Zone%. Three fastballs might seem redundant, but they allow Megill to get ahead without becoming too predictable.

The most important addition is a splitter. Megill previously lacked a wipeout pitch, but his splitter has a 22.3% SwStr% and 40% chase rate: exactly what he needs to put hitters away. This is where the newfound swing-and-miss comes from, and it also explains the slight uptick in walks since it only has a 20% Zone%. It's a worthwhile tradeoff for bountiful strikeouts.

Megill still features his slider, curve, and change too, giving him a legitimate seven-pitch mix to keep hitters guessing. That number goes to eight if you include the sweeper Baseball Savant thinks he throws 1.7% of the time.

The new Megill's sample size is small, but he posted a 31.5% K% in 44 IP at Triple-A (Syracuse) this season. That gives us over 100 innings of Tylor Megill, strikeout artist, which is more than we usually have to work with for waiver guys.

Megill's upcoming matchups are interesting. He pitches at home against Washington tonight, a matchup worthy of streaming in all formats. The Mets haven't announced when he'll make his next start yet, but he lines up for a home date against Philadelphia on September 22. The Phillies are scary, but they might not have much to play for.

If Megill gets a third start, it would come during the season's final weekend at Milwaukee. The Brewers will almost certainly have clinched their postseason seeding by then, so Megill might face a skeleton lineup.

The schedule may or may not work in Megill's favor, but fantasy managers cannot ignore an arm averaging over a strikeout per inning with decent ratios this late in the year. Megill is a Champ. He's also an intriguing name to keep in mind for next year's drafts.

JJ Bleday, OF, Oakland Athletics

33% Rostered

Bleday is hitting .248/.329/.456 with 20 HR in 599 PAs, with the statistical quirk that exactly half of his hits went for extra bases. You might look at his slugging percentage and expect a traditional power guy, but Bleday isn't that at all.

The good part of that is Bleday's plate discipline. He has a 19.4% K% backed by a 27.5% chase rate and 10.6% SwStr%, so he doesn't strike out like the prototypical slugger. He's also willing to take a walk with a 10.5% BB%, giving him added value in on-base percentage formats.

The bad part is Bleday's total lack of oomph. He averages 90.9 mph on his airborne batted balls, more than two ticks below the league average. His 8.6% rate of Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE) is also below average. Bleday's max exit velocity of 113.3 mph is solid, but his EV50 (the average exit velocity of the hardest 50% of his batted balls) is just 99 mph.

Bleday's .415 xSLG is more indicative of his power. His 10.1% HR/FB isn't special but produces decent power numbers when 47.6% of your batted balls are flies. Unfortunately, hitting that many flies also drags down a player's batting average. Bleday's 12.6% IFFB% means he hits a lot of harmless pop-ups, and his .282 BABIP is more likely to decrease than increase as a result.

Bleday's approach works best in hitter's parks where it doesn't take as much oomph to reach the cheap seats. Sadly, he has exactly zero games left in hitter's parks. Most of his remaining games are in Oakland Coliseum, which has an 83 HR factor for left-handed hitters. Oakland closes out the year at Seattle, where Bleday will have to contend with Seattle's pitching staff and a left-handed HR factor of 91.

If you're looking for counting stats like runs and RBI, Bleday might be worth a pickup since he usually hits third against right-handed pitching. However, Bleday gets to his power by hitting tons of fly balls, not hitting the ball especially hard. He won't play in favorable environments for the rest of the season and won't help with batting average or steals.

Bleday is a Chump for the rest of this season. Next season, his value depends on how Sacramento plays when populated by MLB players.

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