X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Trea Turner & Manny Machado

The first few guys you take in any fantasy draft are supposed to be your rocks. If their production falls off, it is easy to find yourself in a hole that can be difficult to climb out of. Do you hang on to your studs and bank on a rebound, or sell for pennies on the dollar to salvage something on your investment?

Both Trea Turner and Manny Machado have forced fantasy owners to confront this conundrum in 2017. In prior years, you would have been forced to guess whether a poor BABIP or HR/FB was a small sample fluke or a harbinger of things to come. Now, we have Statcast data to get a clearer picture of a player's contact quality. In theory, we should be able to use this new data along with other peripheral metrics to determine the proper course of action with both players. Let's get started!

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Trea Turner (2B/SS/OF, WAS) 99% Owned

Turner turned heads with his .342/.370/.567 line and 33 steals in roughly half of a season last year, but his current production (.244/.274/.429 with five homers and 11 SB) is doing anything but. A .282 BABIP and 3.7% BB% are the primary drivers of the disappointing performance. Will they improve?

Turner's disappointing BABIP is the result of two things: a cratering LD% (25.2% last year to 18% this) and less productive ground balls (.232 BABIP vs. .387). LD% is a fluky stat likely to settle in between the two extremes, so let's focus on the grounders. Turner is still fast, so he should be able to beat out more grounders than the average player. Turner's exit velocity on ground balls is virtually unchanged (86 mph last year, 86.7 this season), so it's not a quality of contact issue. Last year's .387 BABIP was absurd, but Turner's true talent BABIP on ground balls is probably around .300. He'll start getting more hits soon.

Turner also boasts a very strong eye (27.1% chase rate), so he is willing to take any walks available to him. Walking Turner is effectively a double though, so pitchers go out of their way to avoid issuing ball four to him. Turner could change this equation by developing a consistent power stroke to keep pitchers honest, and he might be working on doing so.

Turner's HR/FB has predictably fallen from last year's inflated 16.7% rate to a more reasonable 11.4%. Turner has continued to hit for some power by putting more balls into the air (FB% of 36.1% against 31.7% last year), but he isn't a real power threat yet. That "yet" is important, as Turner has considerably improved his average exit velocity on airborne baseballs (92.7 mph last year, 95.7 mph this year). His new mark is 27th in all of baseball (min. 100 balls in play), suggesting power potential that no one thought he had. His pull rate on fly balls is down (26.9% last season, 18.2% this), but Turner has some power upside if it goes back up.

Turner has only been caught stealing once this season, so his steals are down only because he is having a hard time reaching base. If he starts getting the infield singles his legs should grant him, steals and runs should accompany the increased average. Add in his power upside, and you get a guy who should be taken in the first round for years to come.

Verdict: Champ

 
Manny Machado (3B/SS, BAL) 99% Owned

Machado is hitting .225/.312/.444 with 10 HR this season, numbers that fall far short of first round production. Like Turner, the problem is a low BABIP caused by a lack of line drives (20% LD% last year, 12.1% this) that should correct itself with time. Unlike Turner, the few liners Machado has hit have also been underwhelming (.529 BABIP against .696 career). Is this a random blip or a troubling sign for the future?

Exit velocity suggests random blip. Machado's airborne batted balls are averaging 98.2 mph, up from last year's 94.8 mph and good for fifth in MLB. His grounders also leave the bat in a hurry (91.2 mph), again besting last year's mark (88.4 mph) with the third-best velocity in the league. It is logical to forecast positive regression in his ground ball BABIP as a result (.250 vs. .262 career). Machado is murdering the baseball every time he hits it, so there is no reason to suspect his current batted ball production to continue.

Maybe he's having a hard time hitting the ball? That's not it either, as Machado is displaying the best plate discipline of his career. His current BB% of 10.9% would be a personal best, as would the 28.3% chase rate supporting it. Machado has been less aggressive in the zone (last year's Z-Swing% of 72.3% is down to 68.3%) to be more patient outside of it, but his current rate is in line with his career norms (68.2%). Machado's 19.3% K-rate and 10.9% SwStr% are also perfectly reasonable for a slugger, so there is no cause for alarm here.

His HR/FB is where it should be (15.9%, 16.5% last year) while his FB% is up (45% vs. 42.7% last year), so his power game remains in place. Machado is popping up too often (IFFB% of 15.9%), but this has always been his greatest weakness at the plate (14.6% career IFFB%). He has succeeded in spite of it before, so there is no reason to think he cannot continue to do so.

Machado has two swipes in three attempts, surpassing his zero from last year. Still, it looks like the speed component of his profile is gone for good. He is also yet to play a game at SS, possibly making him 3B-only again after this season. When a slugger's lack of speed and positional versatility register as his greatest fantasy flaws, you are probably looking at a first-round bat.

Verdict: Champ

 

More Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF