Champ or Chump: Rhett Lowder Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Is Reds SP Rhett Lowder a fantasy breakout, bust, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into his 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.

Have you heard? A dominant college pitcher was taken in the 2023 Draft's first round. Scouts loved his stuff and control, and he was expected to advance quickly. He debuted in the NL Central this season, and his career is off to a solid start with an ERA of 0.87.

That sounds like we're talking about Paul Skenes, but we're not. Rhett Lowder was taken seventh overall and would have much more prospect buzz if Skenes wasn't in the same class. He has a glowing scouting report, MiLB success, and even won "Best Pitchability" in a 2024 poll of MLB Pipeline executives.

Somehow, this 22-year-old top prospect is only rostered in 12% of leagues. That's way too low, and here's why.

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The Scouting Report on Rhett Lowder

FanGraphs ranks Lowder as the top prospect in Cincinnati's system with the following grades:

Lowder's fastball and change are both plus MLB pitches already, with his slider standing out as the best pitch in his arsenal. The current 45-grade command might be a red flag, but the writeup downplays it: "Lowder's touch and feel for location, especially of his breaking ball, is special."

Three plus pitches with command is an excellent base, and it gets better. Lowder's fastball has natural sink, encouraging ground balls that won't turn into homers even at power-friendly Great American Ballpark.

Lowder is only ranked second in Cincinnati's system by MLB.com, but his scouting report is just as positive:

Lowder's writeup notes that he repeats his three-quarters arm slot well, allowing him to fill the zone with constant strikes. It also states that "his fastball... has more sink than ride, getting a lot of weak ground-ball contact." Sounds like a great fit for Great American!

Interestingly, the writeup disagrees with FanGraphs on Lowder's best secondary pitch, noting that Lowder "brings one of the best changeups in the college game to the Reds." Both outlets like Lowder's slider and change, so we can assume he possesses two excellent secondaries.

Lowder would've been the best pitcher in a normal draft class, and his call-up would've been huge news. He doesn't have the hype he should thanks to Skenes, creating a buying opportunity for astute fantasy managers.

The MiLB Performance of Rhett Lowder

Lowder began the year at High-A (Dayton), pitching to a 2.49 ERA, 3.13 FIP, and 3.01 xFIP in 25.1 IP. He dominated opposing hitters with a 28.4% K% and 5.9% BB%, and hitters who made contact struggled with a 49.2% GB% and .254 BABIP.

He quickly earned a ticket to Double-A (Chattanooga), where his 4.31 ERA in 77.1 IP wasn't quite as impressive. However, his 3.30 FIP and 2.92 xFIP were in line with what he did at Dayton. Lowder's 5.6% BB% and 50.9% GB% were similar to his work at High-A as well, with his .333 BABIP likely a small sample fluke as opposed to a real issue.

The only problem was that Lowder's K% fell to 23.8%, but that will work in real life and fantasy so long as he isn't walking people. Lowder made one start for Triple-A (Louisville) and recorded six shutout innings with zero walks and seven strikeouts before making his MLB debut.

We don't have tons of MiLB data to work with here, but what we have supports the scouting report. Lowder pitched like a guy with good control, good enough stuff to punch guys out, and a strong ground ball tendency when the ball is in play.

The MLB Performance of Rhett Lowder

Lowder's 0.87 ERA in 10.1 IP is sparkly, but his 3.76 FIP, 4.02 xERA, and 5.37 xFIP are not. The issue is a relatively low 20.5% K% against an inflated 18.2% BB%. We knew that Lowder probably wouldn't set the world on fire with his strikeout totals, but the walks are a surprise. What happened to his control?

In a word, nothing. Lowder features a four-pitch mix: fastball, sinker, slider, and change. His heater has a Zone% of 52.2%. His sinker is nearly always a strike with a 69% Zone%. His slider has a 56.1% Zone%, supporting the FanGraphs scouting report's assertion that he can place it wherever he likes. His change has a 36.7% Zone%, but it's his least-thrown offering.

Per Jeff Zimmerman's research at FanGraphs, Lowder deserves a 2.9 BB/9 based on the number of strikes he's thrown rather than the 7.0 BB/9 he currently sports. If the walks decline, the rest of Lowder's profile falls into place nicely.

Lowder's fastballs aren't great for strikeouts, with his four-seamer generating a 6.5% SwStr% while his sinker only gets 4.8%. However, his sinker produces an exceptional 66.7% GB%, giving him a reliable weapon to keep the ball on the ground.

Likewise, his slider plays like a really good fastball with a 14.6% SwStr% and 50% GB%. Lowder's change looks like a work in progress with a 10% SwStr% and 31.6% chase rate, but it was an effective put-away pitch in college and on the farm. Hopefully, Lowder will figure out how to turn it into a wipeout offering against MLB hitters.

The Final Verdict on Rhett Lowder

Lowder is a promising arm, but we have to consider his upcoming schedule this late in the fantasy baseball season. He's pitching at St. Louis tonight, a favorable matchup. His next start is scheduled at Minnesota on September 15, which would be tricky if the team was fully healthy. Luckily, they won't be.

Lowder's next turn would come either September 20 or September 21 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving him another favorable matchup. If he gets another start, it would be against either the Guardians or the Cubs. Neither is particularly scary.

Lowder said he threw about 120 innings in college last season in a recent interview, adding that the Reds thought he was in a good place for a full workload in 2024. That should mean fantasy managers won't have to worry about limitations when Lowder takes the hill, though he might be shut down for the last week.

Overall, Lowder is an easy Champ. The only issue is the walks, and his MLB Zone%, scouting report, and MiLB performance all suggest he'll clean them up.

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