X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Rafael Devers & Eduardo Nunez

Rick Lucks analyzes Rafael Devers & Eduardo Nunez to determine whether they will provide fantasy value over the rest of the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

Deals have continued coming in, with the focus again on relievers. Anthony Swarzak becomes a Chump with his trade to Milwaukee after looking like a possible saves candidate when David Robertson was moved. Kansas City acquired three arms: Trevor Cahill remains a Champ with increased win potential, Brandon Maurer becomes a Chump after losing saves, and Ryan Buchter remains relevant in only the deepest formats. The Twins acquired Jaime Garcia, but his 4.30 ERA and 17.9% K% do not figure to be fantasy-relevant in the AL.

The Red Sox startled some by promoting top prospect Rafael Devers instead of making a trade to find a third baseman, then startled others by acquiring Eduardo Nunez shortly afterward. Both are of fantasy interest, so let's take a closer look to see how this situation will shake out.

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Rafael Devers (3B, BOS) 39% Owned

Devers has an elite prospect pedigree (13th in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus's preseason rankings), a stock that only approved when he slashed .300/.369/.575 with 18 dingers in 320 PAs at Double-A this year. He performed well in a brief taste of Triple-A (.400/.447/.600 with two homers in 38 PAs) as well, suggesting that he may be ready for the Show at the tender age of 20.

Devers's Double-A line is supported by elite plate discipline and a strong .316 BABIP. He posted a 9.7% BB% and 17.2% K% in his first taste of the Upper Minors, a stellar performance for such a young player. He also took two walks in his MLB debut, suggesting that this skill will play at the highest level immediately. This should prevent him from being completely overmatched by MLB pitching, giving him a higher floor than would generally be expected from a 20-year-old prospect.

His BABIP may not be quite as sustainable. He pops out too much (25% IFFB%), a fact likely to drive down his MLB BABIP. His swing seems to produce an average number of line drives (21.6% LD% at Double-A), so an exceptional number of them should not be expected to prop up his BABIP either. His BABIP is likely to settle around the .290 range at first, making him a slight batting average asset in fantasy.

His pop-ups are mitigated somewhat by a relatively low FB% (34.6%), but increasing airborne baseballs is the general trend these days. Devers's current FB% at Double-A is a professional best, so it is possible that he is already changing his swing to produce more flies. Devers's 22.5% HR/FB on the farm seems unlikely in the Show, so the additional fly balls will be necessary if Devers is to hit for the power some are expecting from him.

Devers stole 18 bags at High A last year, but does not have a single attempt so far in 2017. He should hit for a reasonable batting average with power upside, but the scouting reports comparing him to All-Stars such as Robinson Cano will probably not come to fruition this season. Still, his best case scenario is a lot better than what you can typically get for free this time of year.

Verdict: Champ

 
Eduardo Nunez (3B/SS/OF, BOS) 75% Owned

The earliest Devers supporters may have been dismayed to learn that the team had acquired Nunez to take his spot, but he probably won't actually cost the rookie a lot of playing time. A report in the Boston Herald quotes Dave Dombrowski saying that Nunez will play "a lot," but reporter Chad Jennings glosses over the final line: "I think we'll have to probably sit down and visit how he's going to be used." No such meeting would be required if Nunez was going to play everyday, so this suggests that Devers is getting an extended opportunity with Nunez in more of a utility role.

A closer look at Nunez's numbers also suggests that Boston is best served using him as a utility man. His .308/.334/.417 line with 18 swipes (five CS) seems fine on the surface, but there are a lot of problems under the hood. His .328 BABIP is probably unsustainable, as his grounders are substantially beating their career average (.320 vs. .301) despite a massive decline in exit velocity (83.2 mph vs. 88.1 last year). His flies are also overachieving (.129 vs. .087 career) despite a decline in both average airborne exit velocity (90.8 mph vs. 92) and rate of Brls/BBE (1.1% vs. 4.4%) relative to last season.

Most hitters could expect a power surge upon leaving San Francisco's pitcher-friendly ballpark, but Nunez's 27.1% FB% and 5.4% HR/FB will not produce usable power numbers anywhere. His 1.1% rate of Brls/BBE is particularly pathetic, illustrating how much of a singles hitter Nunez is. In an era where speedsters have a shot at 10 homers, Nunez's complete lack of oomph can hurt a fantasy roster's power production significantly.

His approach at the plate could also use improvement. He's not walking at all (3.8% BB%) thanks to a chase rate of 39.9%. He's not striking out either (9.1% K%) because he is making frequent contact outside of the strike zone (76.2% O-Contact%), but this is not actually a good thing. He is putting unhittable pitches into play, producing the sub-optimal Statcast numbers detailed above. Worse, his K% will skyrocket as soon as he loses even a little of his contact ability.

Less relevant in fantasy but of interest to Boston is Nunez's poor glovework. His -3 DRS at 3B may not seem terrible, but Nunez splits his time between multiple positions. Add in his -4 at SS and another -4 in the outfield, and Nunez has been "worth" -11 DRS this year. If the Red Sox wanted defense like that, they could have stuck with Pablo Sandoval. Devers may eventually grow out of playing third base, but his defense rates above average there today.

If you own Nunez in fantasy, try to trade him immediately while other owners delude themselves into thinking he'll consistently hit in a potent Boston offense. He'll have no value to you or anyone else as a bench bat with a declining BABIP and no pop.

Verdict: Chump

 

More Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF