Champ or Chump: Paul Skenes Fantasy Baseball Outlook

May 14, 2024

Is top prospect Paul Skenes a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into his 2024 fantasy baseball value.

A new era dawned in Pittsburgh on May 11. Paul Skenes, age 21, made his MLB debut and racked up seven strikeouts in just four innings. The team won, and baseball fans were treated to the most anticipated debut of a prospect pitcher since Stephen Strasburg.

Pirates fans are understandably excited, but what should fantasy managers think? The team has babied Skenes in the minors, and his 6.75 ERA after one start isn't exactly fantasy-friendly. His ERA estimators are all over the place in the small sample. His 2.95 xFIP looks great while his 7.91 xERA is atrocious.

Will Skenes perform like an ace this season, and will he have enough innings to move the needle in fantasy? Let's find out!

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The Paul Skenes Scouting Report

Most readers are familiar with MLB.com's No. 2 prospect, but it's worth a second look now that he's reached the majors. Here are his FanGraphs scouting grades:

His fastball is great, his slider is above average, and his change shows promise. His command is a work in progress but projects as above-average at peak, creating a great total package.

As glowing as that sounds, MLB.com is even more optimistic. They give his fastball a perfect 80, his slider a 70, and his change a 55 for three above-average MLB pitches. Better yet, his control gets a 60 and the write-up notes that Skenes is "repeating his delivery well and filling the strike zone exceptionally well."

If the scouting report is any indication, Skenes is primed for immediate success.

Paul Skenes on the Farm

Skenes worked as a glorified opener at multiple levels in 2023, so 2024 is the first (and only) year we have data for. He pitched 27.1 innings for Triple-A (Indianapolis), posting a 0.99 ERA and 2.12 xFIP against the most advanced competition the minors offer. His .314 BABIP suggests he wasn't particularly lucky in the small sample, with his 17.3% SwStr% and 42.9% K% driving his success. His 7.6% BB% was fine, but not exceptional.

Notably, projection systems aren't designed for players with so little pro experience. ZiPS projects an 18.5% K% and 4.65 ERA this year, which seems absurd. ATC is a little better with a 23.6% K% and 4.17 ERA, but that seems too pessimistic too. THE BAT projects a 25.3% K% and 4.04 ERA, which is possible but also feels negative. Steamer is the most optimistic with a 31.4% K% and 3.06 ERA, and that's likely what we should expect based on scouting reports and MiLB track record.

The Big League Debut of Paul Skenes

Skenes didn't end up with a great final line in his MLB debut against the Cubs, allowing three earned runs and a 2.00 WHIP in four innings. However, he was much better than that as evidenced when he walked off the field:

Paul Skenes leaves his MLB debut to a standing ovation! pic.twitter.com/nSGK6WAa8J

— MLB (@MLB) May 11, 2024

Skenes posted a 35% K% (seven strikeouts) against a 10% BB% (two walks), showing the expected dominance. His final line was hurt by a bullpen that walked in two inherited runners, which should be a fluke rather than an everyday occurrence.

Moreover, his stuff looked electric. Skenes's arsenal begins with his fastball. He threw 17 fastballs at least 100 mph, topping out at 102 and setting numerous records for 2024 starting pitcher velocity. The pitch generated a 9.1% SwStr% and 54.5% Zone%, though its 2,287 RPM spin rate was underwhelming considering the hype. Still, it performed well.

Skenes featured two secondary weapons: a slider and a "splinker". His slider was bizarre in his first MLB outing, posting just a 4.3% SwStr% but generating plenty of strikes with its 73.9% Zone%. His splinker is a sinker-splitter hybrid classified as a sinker by Pitch Info and splitter by Statcast, and it was his primary put-away pitch. It generated a 33.3% SwStr%, 54.5% chase rate, and 47.6% Zone%.

Skenes rounds out his arsenal with a changeup thrown five times and a curve that appeared thrice. The curve is a show-me offering, while the change is intended to neutralize left-handed hitters. Skenes has all the tools needed for an immediate fantasy impact.

How Much Will Paul Skenes Pitch?

We expect Skenes to be great while on the mound, but Pittsburgh hasn't let him loose yet. The Pirates broadcast was informed that Skenes was on a pitch count in his debut but didn't have the number, indicating that the team won't be forthcoming about their plans.

That won't stop us from trying to deduce them though. The team is shifting to a six-man rotation to protect Skenes and fellow phenom Jared Jones, hurting their value in weekly formats since they'll never have two-start weeks. However, it's probably worth it if Skenes pitches all season.

Most teams don't want to increase a young pitcher's workload by more than 30-40 innings from the year before. LSU worked Skenes hard last season, allowing him to throw 129.1 IP. That gives us a target of around 160 IP for this season. He's thrown approximately 30 innings between the majors and minors this year, so he has about 130 left.

A six-man rotation means that Skenes should pitch once a week, giving him two more starts in May and four in each of June, July, August, and September. That's roughly 18 more starts. If we divide those 18 starts by the 130 innings he has left, he should average just over seven innings per start. Skenes should have no trouble working deep enough into games to earn wins and quality starts even if our numbers are a little off.

Likewise, his limited pitch counts are likely history. Skenes started his MiLB season on a pitch count of just 45 but increased that to 75 by his last Triple-A start. He threw 84 pitches in his MLB debut. One more increase gets him to 90+, on par with most other modern pitchers.

The Verdict on Paul Skenes

The Pirates are a bad team, so Skenes might struggle to get Ws through no fault of his own. PNC Park has a Statcast HR factor of 83, ranked 26th in MLB, so he'll have a favorable environment for his home starts.

Overall, the ace upside makes Skenes a Champ in 2024 fantasy leagues. How is he only rostered in 87% of leagues?

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