Champ or Chump: Kyle Manzardo and David Peterson Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

September 3, 2024

Are 1B Kyle Manzardo (Cleveland Guardians) and SP David Peterson (New York Mets) fantasy breakouts, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.

The calendar flipped to September, so it's crunch time in fantasy baseball. Choosing the wrong stream or rostering an unproductive player could make the difference between winning or losing your league.

If you need a bat, Kyle Manzardo possesses solid skills for the stretch run. However, he may be the wrong fit depending on your needs. David Peterson's numbers look appealing, but a closer look suggests you're playing with fire if you start him.

Here's a detailed analysis of both players.

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Kyle Manzardo (1B, CLE) 5% Rostered

Manzardo has an uninspiring line of .224/.264/.412 with two homers in 91 PAs as a Guardian this season, but both homers came in his first game back with Cleveland after a September call-up. Scouts are divided on the 24-year-old, especially his power potential.

FanGraphs doesn't offer the most glowing scouting report:

The hit tool is solid, but everything else is lackluster. This becomes even more apparent from the writeup: "Manzardo is more likely to slug closer to .400 than .450 during the next half-decade." Forget immediate power production. This report suggests that power never comes for the first baseman.

MLB.com is more optimistic:

Combining plus power with a plus hit tool makes an attractive package, and again the writeup provides insight: "He has the pure hitting ability to bat .280-.300 and the strength and bat speed to produce 25 homers per season."

Normally, we'd rely on Manzardo's MiLB resume to determine which report to believe, but it's a mixed bag. He first reached the High Minors as a Tampa farmhand, logging 122 PAs with Double-A (Montgomery) in 2022. He hit .323/.402/.576 with five homers and excellent plate discipline (11.5% BB%, 15.6% K%) in the tiny sample.

Manzardo was promoted to Triple-A (Durham) in 2023, slashing .238/.342/.447 with 11 homers over 313 PAs. He did a great job of elevating the baseball with a 44.6% FB% and largely avoided pop-ups with an 11.1% IFFB%, but a 20-homer pace at hitter-friendly Triple-A isn't exciting.

The fly ball profile also took a bite out of his .269 BABIP. On the plus side, his 13.4% BB% and 20.8% K% were supported by his 25.4% chase rate and 8.7% SwStr%.

Manzardo reported to Triple-A (Columbus) following his inclusion in the Aaron Civale deal and hit .256/.348/.590 with six homers over 92 PAs. His peripherals remained similar, as he excelled at loft (48.5% FB%), avoiding pop-ups (9.4% IFFB%) and strikeouts (15.2 K%, 6.5% SwStr%), and plate discipline (13% BB%, 25% chase rate). His .233 BABIP was even lower than in Tampa's system, though.

Many expected Manzardo to debut in 2023 or by making the Opening Day roster this season, but he returned to Columbus. He hit .267/.398/.548 with 20 homers in 364 PAs. Again, he hit flies (42.9% FB%) while largely avoiding pop-ups (14.4% IFFB%). Again, his 16.8% BB% and 18.4% K% were supported by his 23.2% chase rate and 7.7% SwStr%. Again, his .276 BABIP was low.

Manzardo has excellent plate discipline, so he should have a relatively high floor. He also elevates the ball, so the opportunity for homers should be there. However, those flies hurt his BABIP and he might not have the raw power to maximize them. He hits sixth in Cleveland's mediocre lineup, a role with minimal fantasy value.

Manzardo is a Champ in OBP formats and points leagues caring about walks. He has power potential thanks to the sheer volume of fly balls he hits, but Cleveland's 95 Statcast HR factor for left-handed hitters isn't the ideal environment for his game. If you need batting average or R+RBI, look elsewhere. He cannot run and is considered a sub-par glove, so his bat has to click for playing time.

David Peterson (SP, NYM) 43% Rostered

Peterson is 8-1 with a 2.83 ERA in 92.1 IP this season, giving the Mets and fantasy managers reason to rejoice. However, anyone who understands advanced stats will see at least some of his success is a mirage. Peterson's FIP is 4.25, his xFIP is 4.41, his SIERA is 4.68, and his xERA is 5.15.

All three of his "luck" metrics are better than his career numbers. Peterson has a .281 BABIP against a career mark of .310. He has an 82.2% strand rate against a career rate of 74.6%. Finally, he has a 10.3% HR/FB against a career rate of 15.7%. These metrics aren't entirely luck and some repeatable skills can influence them.

For example, a pitcher who consistently induces soft contact would be expected to post a low BABIP and HR/FB. Unfortunately, Peterson isn't doing that:

His average exit velocity is in the 25th percentile, meaning 75% of qualified MLB pitchers allow softer contact. Similarly, his xBA is in the 12th percentile, meaning 88% of pitchers deserve a lower batting average against than Peterson.

Pitchers supported by great defense outperform their peripherals. Peterson received five outs above average (OAA) from his teammates so far, but the team has zero OAA on the season. That means they're collectively -5 OAA when Peterson isn't on the mound, so we cannot count on New York's defense to sustain Peterson's performance moving forward.

Peterson isn't suppressing contact quality or benefiting from sustainably elite defense, so the only way to keep rolling would be to improve his core skills. Miraculously, Peterson has done the opposite.

Peterson was intriguing in fantasy for the last two seasons because he got strikeouts: 26% K% in 2023 and 27.8% K% in 2022. He allowed too many walks (10.2% BB% in 2023, 10.6% in 2022), but it was something.

This season, Peterson's K% is down to 17.9%. That might be okay if the walks came down too, but his 10% BB% is on par with the previous two seasons. The reason for Peterson's K% decline is two-pronged. First, he's throwing more sinkers. Peterson's sinker has a 5.6% SwStr%, so throwing it more often will reduce his strikeout totals.

Second, Peterson is using his slider differently. In 2023, it was a put-away pitch with a 20.4% SwStr%, 37.5% Zone%, and 39.7% chase rate. This season, it has a 48.1% Zone%, 32.9% chase rate, and 16.3% SwStr%. His change (12.3% SwStr%, 32.4% Zone%, 31.5% chase) and curve (8.5% SwStr%, 39.6% Zone%, 25% chase) are both show-me pitches, so Peterson lacks an out pitch now.

Anybody is startable with the right opponent, but Peterson gets Boston tonight and a date in Toronto after that. This Chump shouldn't be anywhere near fantasy rosters despite his surface stats.

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