X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: John Hicks & Willy Adames

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of John Hicks and Willy Adames to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.

Injuries are always a touchy subject in fantasy baseball. Nobody ever wants anybody to get injured, especially if you paid a high price to acquire them in March. Yet if your roster is light on saves or in need of a particular position in a deeper format, somebody getting hurt is the best chance you have at finding playing time on the wire.

The two players below have been thrust into potentially fantasy-friendly roles because somebody else got hurt. Willy Adames is a top-rated prospect in a loaded farm system, and he figures to play everyday until Daniel Robertson comes off of the DL. John Hicks has been named Detroit's starting first baseman in the wake of Miguel Cabrera's season-ending biceps injury.

Will either produce enough to help fantasy owners?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

John Hicks (C/1B, DET) - 28% Owned

Hicks has been solid so far in 2018, slashing .285/.327/.437 with five homers in 162 PAs. The 28-year old doesn't have much of a prospect pedigree, nor did he light the minor leagues on fire. Many of his peripherals suggest that regression is forthcoming. Yet you should still add him to your team for one simple reason: he's catcher-eligible and will be playing everyday at not-catcher.

Let's get the worst news out of the way first: Hicks has awful plate discipline. His 40.6% chase rate would be tied for the seventh highest rate in MLB if he qualified, and his 17.4% SwStr% (third) is atrocious too. That adds up to a 27.2% K% with a chance to rise further, making it incredibly unlikely that he keeps hitting .280.

The BABIP gods have provided Hicks with a .369 BABIP to offset his strikeouts thus far, but it probably won't last. Hicks runs like the catcher he used to be (26.4 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed) and isn't crushing his ground balls (82.5mph average exit velocity according to Baseball Savant), so there's no good reason for his .405 BABIP on the ground. Even elite speedsters struggle to sustain a BABIP on grounders north of .300, making .400 virtually impossible.

That said, Hicks projects for a decent BABIP moving forward. Both his fly balls (.150 vs. .182) and line drives (.684 vs. .714) are underachieving relative to his 388 PA career, providing hope for favorable regression. He's also completely shift-proof (45.2% Pull% on grounders), a fact that should help him run a decent BABIP on grounders despite his lack of speed. Finally, his 17.9% LD% is on the low side even after considering his below average rates in the minor leagues. Even one more percentage point could offset a lot of losses elsewhere.

Overall, Baseball Savant's xStats say that Hicks deserves a batting average of .241 this year based on his K%, launch angles, and exit velocities. The metric has flaws, but it seems like a good projection in this case. Most fantasy owners aren't excited by the prospect of a .240 hitter, but Hicks makes it work with league average pop and catcher-eligibility.

Hicks has a healthy FB% (42.5%) that should allow him to pop 20 homers in this environment. His airborne contact quality is slightly above average: 94.9mph and a 7.5% rate of Brls/BBE. He put up similar metrics last season in 190 PAs (92.5mph and 8.9% Brls/BBE), so it seems to be his level. If he maintains his FB% (it bounced around the league average on the farm), Hicks should hit enough homers to matter in fantasy.

The real draw is the counting stats he'll be able to provide from the catcher slot. Catchers require more off-days than any other offensive position due to the physical demands of the position. While you want your outfielder to play at least six times a week, you're lucky if your catcher averages five without compromising their performance.

Hicks has 13 games at C this season, earning eligibility there in nearly all formats. However, he's now Detroit's starting first baseman moving forward. This will allow owners to roster a "catcher" actually playing first base, likely crushing other catchers in PAs accumulated. More PAs means more counting stat opportunities.

Better yet, the Tigers are likely to give him a favorable lineup spot. While he's been hitting sixth lately, he has been the team's cleanup hitter on numerous occasions this year. He'll have to move up at least one spot since Cabrera is no longer batting third, giving him the R+RBI chances expected of a first sacker.

The position switch may also help Hicks offensively. Over his young career, Hicks has been much better at first base (.297/.353/.470) than at catcher (.226/.267/.387). The split could be useless noise, and should probably be regressed even if you believe in it. Still, it stands to reason that a player who isn't squatting for nine innings or working with his team's pitchers on a daily basis would hit better than one who is.

In summation, Hicks isn't an especially good hitter. He strikes out too much, can't run, and offsets it with only league average power. However, he's been thrust into a role that seems destined to make him a top five catcher. He should be owned by somebody in every league.

Verdict: Champ

 
Willy Adames (SS, TB) - 11% Owned

Adames has 20 total PAs with Tampa Bay, slashing .278/.300/.500 with a homer for the season. That's neither great nor terrible, but his minor league history suggests that he needs to develop a little more before being counted on in fantasy.

The appeal of Adames is encapsulated in his 2016 line for Double-A Montgomery: .274/.372/.430 with 11 HR and 13 SB (six CS) in 568 PAs. He walked a ton (13% BB%) to balance an average K% (21.3%), making him look like the rare 20-year-old with an advanced approach at the plate. His 68% success rate on SB attempts wasn't great, and his 34.7% FB% didn't lend itself to an aggressive power projection at the highest level. Still, it was a strong debut against advanced competition.

The problem is that Adames has yet to progress beyond that point. The Rays promoted him to Triple-A Durham for 2017, where he slashed .277/.360/.415 with 10 HR and 11 SB (five CS) in 578 PAs. It looks like the same season on the surface, but all of his peripherals got worse. His BB% (11.2%) declined a little, but was still strong for a 21-year old at Triple-A. His K% increased slightly (22.8%), while his FB% fell to 32.6%. His 8.3% HR/FB wasn't special, so he'll need to elevate more often to reach the 20-25 HR projection many scouts expect of him. He even maintained his mediocre 68% success rate on SB attempts.

The same trends continued into 2018. Returning to Durham, he slashed .286/.356/.424 with four homers and three steals (three CS) over 233 PAs. That 50% success rate on SB attempts probably earns him a red light in the majors, and his K% increased again (24.9%) while his BB% fell (10.3%). He hit more fly balls (38.7% FB%), but lost some HR/FB in the process (6.9%). Everything is trending in the wrong direction.

Adames's minor league numbers become more troubling when his environment is considered. Montgomery slightly favors hitters (1.033 ballpark factor for runs scored from 2014-2016) because it's easy to homer there (1.115 HR factor). Adames failed to take advantage despite being billed as a power prospect. Likewise, Durham inflates power production slightly (1.078 HR factor), and Adames failed to capitalize on it.

This doesn't mean that Adames is a surefire bust, just that he might be too raw to contribute much in 2018. It's a ridiculously small sample, but his 40% K% and 16% SwStr% suggest that he's overmatched by MLB hurlers right now. He's worth a speculative add in OBP formats, but remember that he's guaranteed nothing once Robertson comes off of the DL. It might be best to let somebody else use a roster spot on him.

Verdict: Chump

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF