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Champ or Chump: Joey Gallo & Aaron Judge

The old saying "Chicks dig the long ball" applies to fantasy baseball owners as well. Billy Hamilton is frequently criticized for offering nothing outside of steals, yet similar players who provide nothing but bombs are not only rostered, but taken inside the top 100. Hamilton goes high too, but at least two owners in every league roll their eyes when his name gets called that early.

The thing about one-trick ponies is that somebody will come out of nowhere to provide similar production if you do not want to pay up. Last year, Adam Duvall slugged for an entire season. This season, Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge have already combined for 20 bombs. Will they remain relevant all season like the 2016 Duvall, or fall into obscurity like so many before them?

As always, ownership rates provided are from FleaFlicker formats.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Joey Gallo (3B, TEX) 31% Owned

Gallo's eight home runs put him on a pace for 40, but his .207/.324/.552 triple slash line in 102 PAs is underwhelming. In evaluating Gallo, we need to answer two questions. First, can he continue his current pace and make 40 homers a reality? Second, can he bring the average up to an acceptable level?

The answer to the first question is a resounding yes. Where most sluggers look to elevate 40 percent of their batted balls, Gallo has a fly ball rate of 58 percent. Amazingly, this rate is in keeping with his minor league history where Gallo consistently posted FB% marks above 50 percent. His current 27.6 percent HR/FB is also supported by his minor league numbers, suggesting that Gallo's power game is translating perfectly to the majors. Finally, his 12 Barrels have him tied for eighth in the league with Joey Votto and Khris Davis. That's pretty good company to keep.

The answer to the second question is an equally resounding no. Gallo's current 36.3 percent K-rate is actually an improvement over his career mark of 44.3 percent, indicating the trouble he's had with putting the ball in play. He probably won't revert to his career average, as he historically gets a little bit better when repeating a level. His first exposure to Double-A in 2014 yielded a K% of 39.5 percent that fell to 33.6 percent when he repeated the level in 2015. Likewise, his 39.5 percent K% at Triple-A in 2015 fell to 34.6 percent when he repeated the level last year. All of these K% are still too high and the underlying 15.8 percent SwStr% is far from encouraging, but at least it won't get worse.

Gallo also profiles as a low-BABIP guy, so his current .238 BABIP may not improve significantly. He generally ran LD% rates in the upper teens on the farm, limiting the growth potential of his 14 percent LD%. The few liners he has hit have produced a BABIP of .857 so far, a number more likely to go down than up. He also pulls 71.4 percent of his ground balls, allowing opposing teams to shift against him virtually every time he steps up to the plate. This has limited his BABIP on ground balls to .214, making a league-average BABIP impossible to achieve.

Gallo has four stolen bases this year, improving his professional success rate to 40-for-44, including a perfect eight-for-eight at the MLB level. There is no reason to red light him when his success rate is this strong, and he has swiped as many as 15 bags in a minor league campaign (2013), so Gallo's SB look like the real deal. He has also been promoted to the sixth slot in Texas's batting order, up from the seventh and eighth spots he started the year in. It's still not great for fantasy, but a couple more promotions would give him serious counting stat potential.

Overall, Gallo's current line is a strong indicator of what to expect moving forward. He'll strikeout too much and underperform on balls in play, but hit plenty of dingers and steal the occasional bag. A lot of fantasy rosters could use that kind of production, so he should really be owned in more than a quarter of leagues.

Verdict: Champ

 

Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) 76% Owned

Judge's start has been loud, as he has hit .313/.424/.795 with 12 homers in 99 PAs so far. He should obviously be owned in all formats, leading me to conclude that 24 percent of FleaFlicker leagues have been abandoned. How else could he be available in so many leagues?

The question is whether he can maintain his current pace, and sadly the answer is probably not. His elite power is the result of a 54.5 percent HR/FB that seems impossible to sustain. For comparison's sake, he posted a HR/FB of 17.6 percent at Triple-A last season. His 38.6 percent FB% is fine, but nowhere near Gallo's level. Judge was only a 20ish-HR guy throughout his minor league career, so this power surge is something of a shock. He is tied for the league lead in Barrels (15) and plays in baseball's best ballpark for power hitters, but he's still due for massive regression.

Judge's BABIP of .311 also figures to tumble. He is currently sporting a pop-up rate of 4.5 percent, significantly lower than the 22.2 percent IFFB% he posted at Triple-A last year. He's also hitting .333 against the shift despite pulling more ground balls than Gallo (79.2 percent), suggesting downside in his already-low .125 BABIP on ground balls. Judge's .818 BABIP on line drives may also prove to be unsustainable. Add in a 26.3 percent K% supported by an extremely patient approach at the plate (40.5 percent Swing%), and Judge looks like a .260 hitter at best.

Optimists could point to excellent plate discipline metrics (11.5 percent SwStr%, 23.6 percent chase rate), Yankee Stadium, and a real prospect pedigree to argue that Judge will remain elite all season, but none of them work for the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have kept Judge in the bottom half of the order throughout his hot streak, likely indicating that they are unwilling to bat him higher than sixth for any extended period of time. Judge is a clear sell-high candidate, and his value will never be higher than it is right now.

Verdict: Chump

 

More Player Outlooks




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
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