September 24, 2017

Rick Lucks analyzes Joe Mauer and Blake Snell to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters over the final week of the 2017 season.

If you play in a weekly league, this weekend is likely your last opportunity to set a lineup before the winner is crowned. There is a widely held belief that you cannot move up in rate stats such as batting average or ERA this late in the season, but you actually can most of the time. A lot of teams frequently end up bunched together, separated by something stupid like .0007. You can't make up 10 batting average points in a week, but .0007 is doable.

Joe Mauer may be a worthwhile add for you if .0007 makes a difference, while Blake Snell may be able to help you on the pitching side. Both options figure to contribute in other categories as well, so they may suit your needs even if you are not actively seeking rate stat help. Let's break them down.

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo! leagues.

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The Fantasy Jury is Out

Joe Mauer (1B, MIN) 17% Owned

Mauer is back on the fantasy radar after slashing .308/.385/.423 with seven long balls this season. He should be a pure batting average play with so little power, but the playoff-bound Twins consistently hit him second in the order. This makes Mauer an excellent choice for runs scored and the occasional RBI in addition to batting average help, making him a viable three-category contributor.

Mauer's strong average is rooted is an excellent K% (13.8%) and a .352 BABIP. On the plate discipline side, Mauer combines a nearly Vottoesque eye (20.6% chase rate) with a refusal to swing and miss (4.1% SwStr%). His K% is therefore perfectly sustainable, while the walks Mauer draws (10.8% BB%) are immensely valuable in OBP formats.

Mauer's .352 BABIP is built on his 24.8% LD%, but he appears to be one of the few hitters who can claim a line drive swing as a legitimate skill. His career rate is also 24.8%, and it has been a decade since he last fell below the league average. His IFFB% of 3% likewise seems too good to be true, but his career rate is actually a hair lower (2%). Former catchers are not usually associated with elevated BABIPs, but Mauer's career mark of .342 supports his performance to date.

That said, limited regression is likely next year. Mauer's .264 BABIP on ground balls is nearly 30 points higher than his career norm (.235). His average ground ball exit velocity is virtually unchanged (86.4 mph this year, 86.2 mph last), and his profile never supported shifting against him. His liners have also beaten their career averages (.724 vs. .709), but this is likely to be negated by his fly balls (.120 this year vs. .178 career).

Speaking of fly balls, Mauer does not hit a lot of them (23.3% FB%, 25% career). He pulls almost none of them (2% this year, 6.8% career), making it very difficult for him to hit a home run. His average airborne exit velocity is actually above average (94.8 mph this year, 93.9 mph last), but it is almost never paired with a favorable launch angle (4.7% Brls/BBE this year, 6% last year). His HR/FB has declined this season relative to last (7.1% vs. 12.8%), a trend that should be expected to continue moving forward.

If you need power, look elsewhere. If you need batting average and counting stats, Mauer is very likely to be available to you.

Verdict: Champ

Blake Snell (SP, TB) 30% Owned

Snell's numbers (4.01 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, 20.5% K%) don't immediately jump out and say "add me!," but he has the potential to make an impact in the final week. He posted a workable ERA in his first exposure to the majors last year (3.54 over 89 IP), though the underlying xFIP wasn't quite as strong (4.35).

Let's start by analyzing Snell's stuff. His fastball averages 94.6 mph, but offers little in Zone% (46.8%), SwStr% (4.8%), or chase rate (21.9%). The pitch has potential at that velocity, but it isn't doing much yet. His change is better, with a similar Zone% to his fastball (45%) but better SwStr% (13.4%) and chase rate (35.2%) marks. His slider is a classic put-away pitch, offering a 23.3% SwStr% and 42% chase rate despite a low Zone% (23.7%). Finally, his curve is a light version of his slider (15.9% SwStr%, 34.9% chase, 23.7% Zone%) with a knack for inducing ground balls (63.6% GB%). This repertoire could produce Ks with some fine tuning.

His 24.4% MLB K% was solid last year, but his minor league history provides a better reason for optimism. Snell dominated Triple-A this season, posting an ERA of 2.66 (2.51 xFIP) and elite 32.6% K% over 44 IP. The campaign was probably luck-neutral, as his 88.2% strand rate counteracted his .359 BABIP. His numbers were similar at the level last year (3.29 ERA, 2.38 xFIP, 33.3% K%) over 63 IP, with a favorable HR/FB (10.5%) to counteract his elevated BABIP (.356).

Snell's 2015 was even stronger than the campaigns above. He posted a 1.57 ERA (2.90 xFIP) at Double-A over 68 2/3 IP, striking out 29.5% of the men to face him. The performance earned him a shot at Triple-A, where he performed even better (1.83 ERA, 2.07 xFIP, 33.3% K%). He did not struggle with BABIP at either stop (.260 at Double-A, .276 at Triple-A), so he should not consistently struggle with it at the highest level.

Snell has a .275 BABIP in the majors this year, and most of the indicators suggest that he can keep doing it. He looks like a fly ball guy (37.9% FB%) with a knack for inducing pop-ups (13.8% IFFB%). His LD% is also low (19%), but line drive suppression is less likely to be a sustainable skill than IFFB%. The contact quality against him is average by exit velocity (90.9 mph in the air, 81 mph on the ground) and weak by Brls/BBE (4%), so MLB hitters are not hitting him especially hard.

Snell is also supported by the Tampa Bay defense, one of the strongest units in the league. Second sacker Brad Miller hasn't been great (-4 DRS), but first baseman Logan Morrison (two DRS), shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria (seven), and third baseman Evan Longoria (13) are easily good enough to cover for him. Snell has been hurt less by ground balls (.209 BABIP) than the league average (.241), and the combination of low exit velocity against and Tampa's infield defense is likely the reason why.

We could do the same thing for Tampa's outfield, but Statcast recently gave us a shiny new toy to play with. Outs Above Average (OAA) is a new metric using the Catch Probabilities Statcast introduced back in April. Each time an outfielder has a chance to catch a fly ball, this metric credits or debits the fielder based on the result. Catches are worth (1 - Catch Probability), while misses deduct the Catch Probability from the player's OAA. The resulting score is an easy way to measure any outfielder's defensive skill taking both quality and quantity of chances into consideration.

For example, if an outfielder catches a fly ball with a Catch Probability of 20%, his score goes up by 0.8 (1 - 20% = 80%, or 0.8). Should he miss it, his score decreases by 0.2 (20%) instead. Plays involving an outfield wall are still a work in progress, and the metric makes no effort to handle arm strength or non-fly ball chances. Still, this metric is a lot more intuitive than DRS.

Tampa's outfield defense is very strong according to OAA. Defensive wizard Kevin Kiermaier is fifth in the league with 12 OAA despite missing over two months with a hip issue, so it looks like he found a new defensive metric to break. Steven Souza Jr. ranks 11th with nine OAA, and Tampa has the second highest combined total with 22 OAA as a team. This defense has helped Snell beat the league average BABIP on fly balls (.121 vs. .129), but it hasn't seemed to help him on line drives yet (.708 vs. .682 for the league). This might be an interesting thing to look into for next year's draft prep.

Snell projects to run a favorable BABIP with strikeout upside. He's raw, but you won't find a better lottery ticket to close out your campaign.

Verdict: Champ

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