X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Joe Mauer and Blake Snell

Rick Lucks analyzes Joe Mauer and Blake Snell to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters over the final week of the 2017 season.

If you play in a weekly league, this weekend is likely your last opportunity to set a lineup before the winner is crowned. There is a widely held belief that you cannot move up in rate stats such as batting average or ERA this late in the season, but you actually can most of the time. A lot of teams frequently end up bunched together, separated by something stupid like .0007. You can't make up 10 batting average points in a week, but .0007 is doable.

Joe Mauer may be a worthwhile add for you if .0007 makes a difference, while Blake Snell may be able to help you on the pitching side. Both options figure to contribute in other categories as well, so they may suit your needs even if you are not actively seeking rate stat help. Let's break them down.

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo! leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Joe Mauer (1B, MIN) 17% Owned

Mauer is back on the fantasy radar after slashing .308/.385/.423 with seven long balls this season. He should be a pure batting average play with so little power, but the playoff-bound Twins consistently hit him second in the order. This makes Mauer an excellent choice for runs scored and the occasional RBI in addition to batting average help, making him a viable three-category contributor.

Mauer's strong average is rooted is an excellent K% (13.8%) and a .352 BABIP. On the plate discipline side, Mauer combines a nearly Vottoesque eye (20.6% chase rate) with a refusal to swing and miss (4.1% SwStr%). His K% is therefore perfectly sustainable, while the walks Mauer draws (10.8% BB%) are immensely valuable in OBP formats.

Mauer's .352 BABIP is built on his 24.8% LD%, but he appears to be one of the few hitters who can claim a line drive swing as a legitimate skill. His career rate is also 24.8%, and it has been a decade since he last fell below the league average. His IFFB% of 3% likewise seems too good to be true, but his career rate is actually a hair lower (2%). Former catchers are not usually associated with elevated BABIPs, but Mauer's career mark of .342 supports his performance to date.

That said, limited regression is likely next year. Mauer's .264 BABIP on ground balls is nearly 30 points higher than his career norm (.235). His average ground ball exit velocity is virtually unchanged (86.4 mph this year, 86.2 mph last), and his profile never supported shifting against him. His liners have also beaten their career averages (.724 vs. .709), but this is likely to be negated by his fly balls (.120 this year vs. .178 career).

Speaking of fly balls, Mauer does not hit a lot of them (23.3% FB%, 25% career). He pulls almost none of them (2% this year, 6.8% career), making it very difficult for him to hit a home run. His average airborne exit velocity is actually above average (94.8 mph this year, 93.9 mph last), but it is almost never paired with a favorable launch angle (4.7% Brls/BBE this year, 6% last year). His HR/FB has declined this season relative to last (7.1% vs. 12.8%), a trend that should be expected to continue moving forward.

If you need power, look elsewhere. If you need batting average and counting stats, Mauer is very likely to be available to you.

Verdict: Champ

Blake Snell (SP, TB) 30% Owned

Snell's numbers (4.01 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, 20.5% K%) don't immediately jump out and say "add me!," but he has the potential to make an impact in the final week. He posted a workable ERA in his first exposure to the majors last year (3.54 over 89 IP), though the underlying xFIP wasn't quite as strong (4.35).

Let's start by analyzing Snell's stuff. His fastball averages 94.6 mph, but offers little in Zone% (46.8%), SwStr% (4.8%), or chase rate (21.9%). The pitch has potential at that velocity, but it isn't doing much yet. His change is better, with a similar Zone% to his fastball (45%) but better SwStr% (13.4%) and chase rate (35.2%) marks. His slider is a classic put-away pitch, offering a 23.3% SwStr% and 42% chase rate despite a low Zone% (23.7%). Finally, his curve is a light version of his slider (15.9% SwStr%, 34.9% chase, 23.7% Zone%) with a knack for inducing ground balls (63.6% GB%). This repertoire could produce Ks with some fine tuning.

His 24.4% MLB K% was solid last year, but his minor league history provides a better reason for optimism. Snell dominated Triple-A this season, posting an ERA of 2.66 (2.51 xFIP) and elite 32.6% K% over 44 IP. The campaign was probably luck-neutral, as his 88.2% strand rate counteracted his .359 BABIP. His numbers were similar at the level last year (3.29 ERA, 2.38 xFIP, 33.3% K%) over 63 IP, with a favorable HR/FB (10.5%) to counteract his elevated BABIP (.356).

Snell's 2015 was even stronger than the campaigns above. He posted a 1.57 ERA (2.90 xFIP) at Double-A over 68 2/3 IP, striking out 29.5% of the men to face him. The performance earned him a shot at Triple-A, where he performed even better (1.83 ERA, 2.07 xFIP, 33.3% K%). He did not struggle with BABIP at either stop (.260 at Double-A, .276 at Triple-A), so he should not consistently struggle with it at the highest level.

Snell has a .275 BABIP in the majors this year, and most of the indicators suggest that he can keep doing it. He looks like a fly ball guy (37.9% FB%) with a knack for inducing pop-ups (13.8% IFFB%). His LD% is also low (19%), but line drive suppression is less likely to be a sustainable skill than IFFB%. The contact quality against him is average by exit velocity (90.9 mph in the air, 81 mph on the ground) and weak by Brls/BBE (4%), so MLB hitters are not hitting him especially hard.

Snell is also supported by the Tampa Bay defense, one of the strongest units in the league. Second sacker Brad Miller hasn't been great (-4 DRS), but first baseman Logan Morrison (two DRS), shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria (seven), and third baseman Evan Longoria (13) are easily good enough to cover for him. Snell has been hurt less by ground balls (.209 BABIP) than the league average (.241), and the combination of low exit velocity against and Tampa's infield defense is likely the reason why.

We could do the same thing for Tampa's outfield, but Statcast recently gave us a shiny new toy to play with. Outs Above Average (OAA) is a new metric using the Catch Probabilities Statcast introduced back in April. Each time an outfielder has a chance to catch a fly ball, this metric credits or debits the fielder based on the result. Catches are worth (1 - Catch Probability), while misses deduct the Catch Probability from the player's OAA. The resulting score is an easy way to measure any outfielder's defensive skill taking both quality and quantity of chances into consideration.

For example, if an outfielder catches a fly ball with a Catch Probability of 20%, his score goes up by 0.8 (1 - 20% = 80%, or 0.8). Should he miss it, his score decreases by 0.2 (20%) instead. Plays involving an outfield wall are still a work in progress, and the metric makes no effort to handle arm strength or non-fly ball chances. Still, this metric is a lot more intuitive than DRS.

Tampa's outfield defense is very strong according to OAA. Defensive wizard Kevin Kiermaier is fifth in the league with 12 OAA despite missing over two months with a hip issue, so it looks like he found a new defensive metric to break. Steven Souza Jr. ranks 11th with nine OAA, and Tampa has the second highest combined total with 22 OAA as a team. This defense has helped Snell beat the league average BABIP on fly balls (.121 vs. .129), but it hasn't seemed to help him on line drives yet (.708 vs. .682 for the league). This might be an interesting thing to look into for next year's draft prep.

Snell projects to run a favorable BABIP with strikeout upside. He's raw, but you won't find a better lottery ticket to close out your campaign.

Verdict: Champ

 

More Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF