Champ or Chump: Isiah Kiner-Falefa

August 1, 2020

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Will the unheralded catcher put up worthwhile fantasy numbers?

Roughly a week into the season, no fewer than 20 percent of MLB teams are shelved due to coronavirus concerns. In all probability, your roster has a ton of players who are too good to drop yet aren't playing in the immediate future. Most of the affected players haven't been placed on the IL yet either, so you can't use it to alleviate the roster crunch even if your commissioner had the foresight to provide more slots.

This problem illustrates a key tenet of fantasy baseball: volume matters. If your league has no caps on IP or GP, whoever has the most is very likely to finish well. If you do have caps, any owners who fail to reach them will be at a significant disadvantage.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Texas Rangers represents a great way to add volume to your roster. He is his club's everyday third baseman, but qualifies at C in all fantasy formats. Thus, you can get everyday PAs out of a position where frequent rest is the norm. Kiner-Falefa also brings steals to a position that rarely offers them, making him a great add if your roster needs speed. Best of all, he's only owned in 14% of Yahoo leagues so you can probably add him right now. Here is a closer look at his profile.

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2019 in Review

You would be forgiven if you had never heard of Kiner-Falefa before this season as the 25-year-old doesn't have any skills that really stand out. He slashed a mediocre .238/.299/.322 with a single homer and three steals over 222 PAs with the Rangers last year, a line that doesn't move the needle at all. His contact quality was awful, with his 87.2 mph overall average exit velocity and 88.9 mph airborne exit velocity both ranking below league-average. Likewise, his rate of 1.3% Brls/BBE was in Billy Hamilton territory.

That said, there were some positives to consider. His 28 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed was above average overall and elite for a catcher, and he was a perfect three-for-three on SB attempts. His 87.2 mph average exit velocity on ground balls was also above-average, and it's reasonable to assume he'll best last season's .260 BABIP on them with his speed. Furthermore, he has a plus eye with a solid 27.1% chase rate a season ago. Most importantly, his 90.9 Z-Contact% suggests that he should be difficult to strikeout going forward, even if his actual 22.1 K% was about average.

Can Kiner-Falefa deliver the production (steals with a workable average) that we would expect from these peripheral statistics? His prior track record suggests he can.

Reasonable Production from 2016-18

Kiner-Falefa laid an egg last year, but he did all right in his previous three campaigns. He first reached Double-A (Frisco) in 2016, slashing .256/.341/.286 with zero homers and six steals over 457 PAs. His 9 BB% was very solid for a guy with no power, while his 11.2 K% suggested excellent bat-to-ball skills. He also seemed to realize that airborne batted balls are not his forte, with a 22.1 FB% that plays perfectly into his contact/speed profile. His six CS were too many, giving him something to work on in 2017.

Kiner-Falefa returned to Frisco in 2017 and performed much better: .261/.325/.357 with five long balls and 17 steals in 570 PAs. His plate discipline metrics were again excellent, with a 7.2 BB% and 12.6 K% that suggest mastery of the strike zone. He again avoided fly balls with a 29.8 FB% mark, helping him post a .325 BABIP. He even improved his success rate on the bases, repeating his six CS from the year before with 11 additional successes.

Kiner-Falefa played briefly at the Triple-A level, but largely skipped it in favor of MLB playing time in 2018. He fared well, hitting .261/.325/.357 with four homers and seven steals in 396 PAs. He struck out more often against the best pitchers in the world, but his 15.7 K% was far from bad. He also worked his fair share of walks with a 7.1 BB% and avoided fly balls with a 23.5% mark.

What changed between 2018 and 2019? The biggest difference is his LD%, which was a very high 25.3% in 2018 but a very low 16.9% last season. He was around average on the farm, so it seems logical to split the difference. He also hit more fly balls last season, but his 33.1 FB% was still below average. Most bizarrely, his contact quality was worse in 2018: 84.9 mph overall average exit velocity, 86.1 in the air, and 85.4 on grounders. The weaker contact actually helped him, as the extra slow-rollers gave him an xBA of .258 against just a .232 mark last season.

Opportunity in 2020

Kiner-Falefa was a backup catcher and utility guy in both 2018 and 2019, so 2020 will be his first consistent look at big-league pitching. Moreover, the club's new ballpark seems poised to adjust the team's overall strategy in their third-baseman's favor. Globe Life Park was a notorious hitter's haven, consistently ranking as one of the best parks for offense, no matter what park factors you consulted. As a result, the Rangers traditionally stacked their lineup with power bats and hoped to outslug mediocre pitching. Stealing wasn't really in the game plan.

It's only been a handful of games, but Globe Life Field seemed to play as an extreme pitcher's park to this author's eyes. We'll probably need to wait for at least one full season (and probably more) for reliable park factors to confirm, but it's likely more pitcher-friendly than Globe Life Park if nothing else. The Rangers also have a solid rotation backed by a mediocre offense, a formula that should produce plenty of low-scoring, close games where Kiner-Falefa may be asked to steal. He swiped two bags in one game on July 28, for example.

Kiner-Falefa could also see his role in the lineup improve in the coming weeks. He started the season batting ninth, but moved up to seventh for that July 28 game. The Rangers offense doesn't have any stars outside of Joey Gallo, so Kiner-Falefa should be able to move up as long as he's hitting.

Conclusion

Kiner-Falefa projects to hit in the .250-.260 range with zero power and some steals, a line that wouldn't work in fantasy at any position save catcher. Luckily for us, he is a catcher who should leverage his everyday PAs into decent R+RBI totals and stolen bases. If you're not satisfied with your catching tandem (who is?) or you're scrambling to replace a catcher from one of the teams that aren't playing right now, Kiner-Falefa is likely the best option available to you.

Verdict: Champ (based on everyday playing time and steals from a "free" C)

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