May 21, 2017

Rick Lucks analyzes Ervin Santana & Michael Pineda to determine whether they will continue to produce during the 2017 MLB season.

One of the most amazing things about pitching is how many ways there are to do it successfully. Ervin Santana has compiled an ERA of 2.07 by allowing his defense to gobble up every ball in play. By contrast, Michael Pineda has succeeded by limiting the number of balls in play against him, striking out a whopping 28.8 percent of the batters he's faced. Their styles are polar opposites, yet both have been boons for fantasy owners this season.

Will they continue to serve us well? The answer is yes, provided that the fantasy community sets realistic expectations for them going forward.

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo leagues.

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Ervin Santana (SP, MIN) 94% Owned

Santana's 2.07 ERA looks great, but the 4.76 xFIP hiding beneath it suggests that he should be dropped from all fantasy rosters ASAP. A 90.7-percent strand rate and minuscule BABIP against of .143 are the root causes of the discrepancy. Santana's season is likely to be worse than his current ERA but better than his xFIP. Here's why.

Whenever a pitcher seems to be having a breakout, the first thing you should do is see if he has made any significant changes to his pitch selection. Santana is throwing more changeups (13.9% after 7.9% last year) at the expense of his slider (31.8% after 39.1% last year), so there is a change to examine. Neither offering is likely to help Santana's pedestrian 19.1% K%, as the slider offers a SwStr% of 12.8% while the change has a 12.2% rate. The changeup is a strike more often (51.2% Zone% to the slider's 34.5%) and more likely to induce a ground ball (52.8% GB% to the slider's 43.6% rate), so this pitch mix switch could explain Santana's performance if it was predicated on those two factors.

It's not, as Santana's overall FB% has taken a significant jump (43.3% vs. 35.7% last year) while his walk-rate of 10.8% would be a career worst. The lazy thing to do would be to call Santana lucky and project massive regression, but some of what Santana is doing is sustainable--provided that he isn't traded. The Twins currently lead baseball with 24 Defensive Runs Saved, with elite defenders such as Byron Buxton (six DRS), Jorge Polanco (five), and Jason Castro (also five) spread throughout the diamond. At least some of Santana's "luck" on batted balls is due to their sustainable defensive wizardry, making it unwise to project Santana for a .300 BABIP against over the rest of the year.

Santana is also helping his defenders help him by limiting contact quality. Grounders hit against him this season are averaging an exit velocity of 78.6 mph, the seventh lowest mark in all of baseball (minimum 100 batted ball events). His overall exit velocity against of 83.3 mph ranks third under the same criteria. Santana has also allowed only five Barrels to be hit against him all season despite his seven home runs allowed, suggesting that batters are not teeing off on him the way observers think they should.

Unfortunately, the rules of fantasy baseball are not in Santana's favor. We need strikeouts, and Santana still isn't generating them at even a league average rate. Some regression is likely to take place in his BABIP and LOB%, rendering him an unexciting streamer in fantasy even as he continues to be above average for the Twins. He does not need to be owned in nine-and-a-half out of 10 leagues.

Verdict: Chump
Michael Pineda (SP, NYY) 91% Owned

Pineda is currently 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA, but whether that mark looks sustainable depends on which peripheral metric you want to use. His 2.78 xFIP suggests that he should be even better than he has been so far, while his 4.10 FIP thinks he has been a bit fortunate to this point. The reason for the sizable discrepancy is a HR/FB of 25 percent, which FIP gives him full blame for while xFIP assumes a league average mark. Pineda has a reputation as a guy who gives up hard contact, so his .267 BABIP against and 50.4% GB% seem like positive developments even if his HR/FB is ugly. Is Pineda an ace now?

He certainly has the repertoire for it. Pineda's slider is excellent, dominating hitters for a 21.6% SwStr% and 46% chase rate. It was actually better last year (24.3% and 51.5%, respectively), suggesting that it may have upside beyond its current performance. Pineda has also turned his change into an effective K generator by throwing it outside the zone more often (Zone% of 29.9% after last year's 38.9% rate). Its 16.4% SwStr% and 48.9% chase rate are a worthy complement to the slider, making his 28.8% K% look perfectly sustainable. Pineda is throwing his fastball for a strike a ludicrous 65.2% of the time to make up for the low Zone% of his other offerings, but hitters aren't hitting it that hard despite the predictability (.232/.256/.439). It seems like Pineda has turned the corner.

He really hasn't, though. He has not changed his pitch selection at all, and there is no way he can sustain his walk-rate of 4.2 percent when he's only throwing one pitch for a strike. Balls hit into the air against Pineda are averaging a higher exit velocity (93.6 mph) than they did last year (92.7 mph), suggesting that the .267 BABIP against could be a mirage. He has also been slightly worse at preventing Barrels on a rate basis, as last year's 6.7% Brls/BBE is up to 7.9% this year. He's performing better on ground balls (84.5 mph vs. 87 last year), but flies and liners tend to do more damage. Pineda still has a contact quality problem.

That puts Pineda in the exact same situation he was in during draft season. If you wanted to gamble on his elite K upside then, you should be high on him now. If you were spooked by the quality of contact he allows, nothing has changed in his profile over the last two months to persuade you otherwise. I liked him, so I'm going with a Champ tag. The argument for Chump is just as strong though.

Verdict: Champ

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