RADIO
Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of 22-year olds Enyel De Los Santos and Jake Bauers to determine whether they will help fantasy rosters in 2018.
Several rookie pitchers have been sent down to the minors in recent days, including a few that we've previously examined in this column (Walker Buehler, Freddy Peralta). Teams are just manipulating their rosters in light of the upcoming All Star break though, so there's no need to panic if you've invested in them.
Speaking of minor leaguers, the prospect beat does not want to leave me alone. Enyel De Los Santos, a 22-year old Phillie, generated some fantasy buzz by performing well against the Mets in his major league debut. Jake Bauers hasn't generated any buzz since the Rays called him up, but he could be an interesting fantasy asset moving forward.
Let's see what the future may hold for these two.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Enyel De Los Santos (SP, PHI) - 15% Owned
Santos wasn't a household name coming into the 2018 season, but he turned heads with a solid debut outing against the Mets (W, 6 1/3 IP, 6 K, 3 BB, 3 ER, 5 H). His second MLB start against the Marlins wasn't quite as good (4 1/3 IP, 2 K, 1 BB, 5 ER, 7 H). Fantasy owners want to know which line to expect going forward, but he'll probably keep alternating good and bad starts.
Santos was Padres property prior to 2018, making his High Minors debut for the team's Double-A affiliate in San Antonio last season. It went pretty well, as he posted a 3.78 ERA and 3.72 xFIP over 150 IP. His BABIP (.290), HR/FB (8.2%), and LOB% (69.3%) were all reasonable, though an extremely pitcher-friendly ballpark (0.683 HR factor from 2014-2016) may have played a role. His 22.4% K% and 7.8% BB% also failed to excite fantasy owners.
The Phillies debuted Santos at their Triple-A affiliate in Lehigh Valley this season, where he posted a stellar 1.89 ERA over 95 1/3 IP. His xFIP of 3.89 suggested that he really wasn't that good though. A BABIP of .248 and strand rate of 92.6% both scream regression, especially considering his pedestrian 22.7% K%. His BB% (8.1%) ticked upward, while his 9.8% HR/FB wasn't hurt that much by a considerably more power-friendly home park (0.942 HR factor).
Overall, Santos's MiLB career suggests a decent fantasy streamer, but not a must-own asset. Stuff-wise, Santos can top out at 97mph and works at 94, with a change and curve that show some promise. He also mixes in the occasional slider to keep hitters off balance.
Santos isn't guaranteed a rotation spot after the break, so you can probably leave him on waivers for now. Just don't forget about him if he ends up with a favorable matchup in the future.
Verdict: Chump
Jake Bauers (1B, TB) - 12% Owned
The scouting report wasn't glowing when Bauers got called up, so the fantasy community (including this column) ignored him. However, his .264/.383/.520 line with five homers and a pair of steals (one CS) over 149 PAs merit a closer look.
Bauers first made it to the High Minors in 2015 for Double-A Montgomery. He slashed .276/.329/.405 with five homers and six steals (three CS) over 285 PAs, pairing an average walk rate (7.4% BB%) with a very strong strikeout rate (14.4%). His 32.9% FB% and 6.9% HR/FB didn't suggest much power upside, but a handful of steals and a refusal to strikeout make for an intriguing debut.
Bauers returned to Double-A in 2016. He slashed .274/.370/.420 with 14 HR and 10 SB (six CS) over 581 PAs, dramatically increasing his BB% (to 12.6%) while holding his K% constant (15.3%). His power metrics also trended upward, as his FB% rose to 37.9% while his HR/FB increased to 9.2%. The power production was still disappointing considering his environment (1.115 HR factor), and his SB% (63%) also left something to be desired. The plate discipline looked promising though.
The Rays called Bauers up to Triple-A Durham in 2017, where he slashed .263/.368/.412 with 13 bombs and 20 steals (three CS) over 575 PAs. His K% increased to 19.5% against the more advanced competition, but was still pretty good for a 21-year old at Triple-A. He also continued to get his share of walks (13.6%), suggesting that he was anything but overmatched. His FB% (33.7%) regressed slightly, but a HR/FB spike (to 10.3%) made up for it. Most importantly, his SB% increased to 83%, giving it a chance to play at the highest level.
Bauers accomplished more of the same before his big league debut this season. He hit .279/.357/.426 with five homers and 10 SB (six CS) over 222 PAs. He walked (10.4% BB%) and struck out (21.2%) at rates approaching his history, though both moved sideways a little. His FB% went back up to 36.8%, and his 9.4% HR/FB suggests that he didn't compromise much pop to do it.
Honestly, his MiLB history suggests niche fantasy value as a potential 1B-eligible source of SB and OBP. His major league data suggests that he can be more than that, however. First of all, Bauers is legitimately fast (28.0 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed). Those steals in the minors were not a fluke.
Bauers has also brought his BB% (15.4%) back into the elite range with the Rays, an impressive accomplishment for an untested 22-year old with a league average K% (21.5%). Most importantly, his 94mph average airborne exit velocity and reasonable 8.6% rate of Brls/BBE hint at more raw power than he ever flashed on the farm. This kid could have 20/20 seasons in his future.
The Rays have also used Bauers as their everyday 3-hole hitter, giving him as many R+RBI opportunities as the team's lineup can provide. Nearly anyone with that type of role has a place in fantasy, and the fact that Bauers offers power and speed potential as well makes him an intriguing candidate to fill a CI or U slot. He's also ventured into the outfield six times this season, potentially becoming dual-eligible at some point this year.
Bauers doesn't have the most impressive MiLB resume, but he's flashed enough promise to earn a favorable lineup slot on a competent team. His ownership rate should be at least triple what it currently is.
Verdict: Champ
