Champ or Chump: Deivi Garcia

September 12, 2020

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of SP Deivi Garcia in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Is he really as good as he has looked so far?

Fantasy baseball frequently turns into an arms race, so you should always be scouring the waiver wire for pitching reinforcements to help you reach your innings cap. Young Deivi Garcia has turned heads in his MLB debut for the Yankees, going 1-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 4.20 xFIP in his first 17 2/3 IP at the MLB level. The prospect of a solid starter on a very strong club (recent struggles aside) makes for an intriguing add, especially considering that the 21-year-old is currently rostered in just 33% of Yahoo! leagues.

Garcia didn't get too much hype before the season because of his youth and inexperience, leading many prospect hounds to conclude that he was still a few years away. He also has a small frame by MLB standards, causing some scouts to project him as a high-leverage reliever rather than a front-end starter. His delivery is described as "high-effort," further reinforcing the notion that his future is in the bullpen.

Despite all of that, his electric stuff plays in any role. MLB Pipeline ranked Garcia as the third-best prospect in the Yankees system this season, indicating a consensus that he would be able to contribute at the big-league level. The Yankees have also allowed Garcia to pitch at least six innings in two of his three starts, so the reliever talk is unlikely to become a reality in 2020 even if it is his long-term future. Keep reading to find out more about how Garcia could help your fantasy roster in 2020.

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Dazzling Scouting Reports

Scouts don't love Garcia's physical size, but they love the stuff he's able to generate. His repertoire begins with a high-spin fastball that has averaged 92.6 mph at the big league level, though he can dial it up to 97 when the situation warrants it. Its 2,200 RPM might not seem impressive at first glance, but its 95.8% active spin means that virtually all of those rotations are contributing to deceptive riding life. The pitch has performed exactly as you would expect it to in its brief MLB sample, generating a solid 9.3 SwStr% and inducing a lot of harmless pop-ups with a 53.6 FB% and 40 IFFB%.

Scouts say that Garcia's high-spin curve is his best pitch, noting that it offers "so much depth that [Garcia] sometimes has difficulty landing it for strikes." It has generated a solid 15.7 SwStr% and 45.1 Zone% at the MLB level thus far, but big-league hitters haven't really been chasing it out of the zone with a 32.1% chase rate. It also offers a 75 GB% when put into play, potentially reassuring fantasy managers who are concerned about rostering a fly ball pitcher at Yankee Stadium.

Garcia's changeup is usually described as his third pitch in scouting reports, but its results to date have been excellent. It's tough to argue with a 21.6 SwStr%, especially if the pitch in question has a 64.9 Zone%. Major league hitters haven't been chasing it at all with a 23.1% chase rate, but its 50 GB% and ability to be thrown for a strike mean that its chase rate isn't that important.

Garcia also throws an occasional slider, but it's more of a show-me pitch than a weapon to get hitters out. FanGraphs grades all four pitches with at least the potential to be major league-average, with a 70-grade on his curve standing out. His fastball is also plus with a 55 scouting grade, while his slider (50/55) and change (45/50) are expected to improve moving forward. The biggest negative is 40-grade command, though it is expected to reach 50-grade in the future.

MLB Pipeline largely agrees with that assessment, ranking his curve as a 65 but also grading his heater a 60. His change and control earned 50-grades in their 2019 scouting report. Overall, this is the kind of raw stuff fantasy gamers want to bet on.

Sterling MiLB Performance

Garcia began his professional career in 2016, but he didn't throw 100 innings in a single season until last year. He began the campaign at Advanced A (Tampa), posting a 3.06 ERA and 1.49 xFIP over 17 2/3 IP. It's a small sample, but his 45.2 K% and 11 BB% suggest total mastery of the level. He somehow allowed a .438 BABIP despite his overall success, but the Yankees promoted him to Double-A (Trenton) without hesitation.

Garcia was more than up to the challenge, posting a 3.86 ERA and 2.45 xFIP over 53 2/3 IP. His 37 K% remained elite, while his 11.1 BB% was virtually unchanged despite more advanced competition. His BABIP against was still high at .360, but he made up for it with an HR/FB of just 5%. Again, the Bronx Bombers had no choice but to promote him to Triple-A (Scranton-Wilkes-Barre).

Garcia's numbers took a bit of a hit at Triple-A, as his ERA and xFIP ballooned to 5.40 and 5.18, respectively, over 40 IP. He still got his strikeouts with a 25.3 K%, but the figure was more good than elite. His 11.2 BB% was comparable to his rates at prior levels, but doesn't work as well when paired with an 18.2% HR/FB.

Still, there is a good case that it wasn't actually Garcia's fault. Scranton-Wilkes-Barre finished in the 94th percentile for HR among all MiLB ballparks last season thanks in part to the rabbit ball. In contrast, Tampa ranked in the 42nd percentile, while Trenton was in the 28th. Likewise, Scranton-Wilkes-Barre finished 2019 in the 73rd percentile for BABIP against the 47th for Tampa and 13th for Trenton. Reaching Triple-A at all is impressive for a 20-year-old, and this author believes that Garcia deserves a mulligan for the statistics he posted there.

Parting Thoughts

Garcia's 25.7 K% over his first three starts is comparable to what he did at Triple-A last season, with his MiLB resume suggesting further upside. He has also cut his BB% to 2.9, indicating that he may have solved one of his biggest problems at the team's alternate training site. It's also possible that he will regress as the league gets more data on him, but walks are unlikely to be a problem if he maintains two pitches with zone rates over 60%.

Scouts believe that Garcia will need to refine the command of his curve to reach his ceiling, and its big-league results haven't measured up to its scouting report thus far. It is also risky to use a pitcher with a 46.9 FB% at Yankee Stadium, though high-spin fastballs tend to limit the damage on fly balls.

Garcia is worth adding to nearly every fantasy roster because he figures to provide strikeouts and wins without hurting a manager's ratios. Honestly, this author is surprised that he is freely available in about two thirds of leagues.

Verdict: Champ (based on excellent pedigree, strong MiLB performance, and initial MLB success)

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