Catcher Draft Targets for All Leagues

March 19, 2021

Eric Samulski evaluates the catcher position for 2021 fantasy baseball drafts and assesses which players to target in traditional redraft and two-catcher leagues.

Enough with the catcher slander! As fantasy baseball drafts heat up, all I keep reading about is how we're "forced" to draft catchers and how they can tank your roster. Catchers are people too! I could use thousands of words writing about the value of catchers and how the grind of their defensive job and the mental preparation of calling a game that attacks opponents' weaknesses should protect them from our disparaging remarks. Instead, I'm just going to tell you some catchers that you should be saying nice things about.

Below I'll explain my strategy when it comes to drafting catchers as well as highlighting a few of the catching targets I'm looking to roster, depending on the league size. I'm not going to cover every catcher I like in every league, so I've included my position rankings as well, letting you know which catchers I would roster in which leagues and how I see them stacking up against the others. Then I'll dive in with an explanation on a few backstops I think are being overlooked in each format.

The ADP used for one and two catcher leagues is from NFBC Online leagues from 2/26 to 3/9. The ADP used for Draft-and-Holds is NFBC Draft Champions leagues from 2/26 to 3/9.

One-Catcher Leagues

If I'm drafting in a one-catcher league, I'm personally comfortable with waiting on a catcher. I'm not opposed to rostering a top-tier catcher at the right spot, but I don't really feel inclined to pay up since many guys in the top-10 come with playing time concerns or are simply being drafted around other hitters and pitchers that I like more. However, the catchers ranked just outside of my top-10 are guys that I'm comfortable starting in a one-catcher league, so I'm happy to wait for where they're going in most leagues.

I'm also not paying up for Will Smith when we know for a fact that Austin Barnes is going to catch multiple games a week. So, to sum up, I'm either drafting one of the other top 6 or 7 on my list around their ADP or waiting for a few more rounds.

James McCann, New York Mets

James McCann showed flashes of interesting skills as a part-time player in Detroit before emerging as a fantasy-relevant asset over his last two years in Chicago. McCann overhauled his swing from stance to load to follow through and saw considerable improvements in power. While he only barreled pitches at a slightly higher rate, the new swing allowed him to hit the ball with more authority, jumping his average exit velocity from 87.1 mph to 90.2 mph, which was 79th in the league last year. His Hard Hit% also began to skyrocket.

Perhaps equally as important, McCann made massive strides in regards to his framing, thanks to the one-knee catching approach that is becoming more popular across baseball. This quieted his movements and gave him more stability, which meant that he was more effective behind the dish and didn't need his starts to be limited for defensive purposes. McCann now finds himself in New York with the vast majority of the playing time at his disposal, so I expect big things in 2021.

Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins

Mitch Garver burst onto the scene in 2019 with a .273/.365/.630 triple-slash to go along with 31 HRs. He seemed like a new star at the catching position until he fell flat on his face in 2020. Now everybody is leaving him for dead. However, I think we need to treat 2020 as a lost year for Garver. In addition to the short season, Garver battled an oblique injury for much of the season, which had a dramatic impact on his rotation and, thus, his results.

However, the results also weren't as bad as people believe. Yes, his batting average was bad and his barrel rate was cut in half. However, his exit velocity went up, his deserved barrel rate was 14%, and his Deserved Hard Hit rate (DDH) was 27.8%. Essentially, Garver actually hit the ball much harder than the results indicated. While he also saw his strikeout rate jump up, a 45.7% mark is clearly an anomaly as his O-Swing% and Chase% actually went down.

Garver simply stopped hitting pitches in the zone. I believe a lot of that has to do with the injury, and while I'm not expecting 2019 numbers, I think Garver has a 65% share of the Twins catcher job and should go back to being a .250 hitter with solid power. The fact that he's hitting .333 with a 1.262 OPS this spring only gives me more confidence in that.

Wilson Ramos, Detroit Tigers

Wilson Ramos had a down year for the Mets in 2020 and may certainly be nearing the downside of his career, but he still provides a batting average floor that very few catchers can provide. Over his last five years (including 2020's stinker), he has two seasons with an average over .300 and one season where he hit .288. He also averaged 16 HR per year over those full seasons. He has never been a big strikeout guy and produces above-average exit velocity and Hard Hit rates. Basically, Ramos is an above-average catcher who can actually help prop up your batting average, and he's going near pick 300.

The only reason I can think of behind such a high ADP is that people think he's not going to catch much in Detroit. However, this is a man who caught 111 games in 2018, 141 in 2019, and 45 of 62 games in 2020. He has the durability and ability to catch 110+ games, and the Tigers' only other option is Grayson Greiner. I would pencil Ramos in for 110 games behind the dish and feel really good about the value I'm getting.

Two-Catcher Leagues

In a two-catcher league, I am making it a point to get one of my top catchers listed above. I want a strong anchor in my catching battery so that I'm not constantly on the wire swapping out both of my catching spots. Finding a strong batting average asset also gets harder as you move down the catcher rankings, so I don't want two players who may pull down my average.

The catchers ranked lower on this list are usually in more even timeshares, which means fewer at-bats and fewer chances to accrue counting stats. I don't want two guys in pronounced timeshares because I'm just not going to get enough at-bats to keep up my league-mates in those counting stats.

Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays

Nobody is drafting Jansen because they all assume he's not the long-term option in Toronto. His successor, Alejandro Kirk, is actually being drafted before him. Here's the thing: I don't care if Jansen loses his job. I'm drafting him as my second catcher, and I usually expect turnover in that spot, so if (when) Kirk finally overtakes Jansen, I can swap him out. However, that's not going to happen for a couple of months.

Yes, Kirk looked good in nine games last year, but it was nine games - 25 plate appearances! Before that, he had never played a game above High-A. He's a good player and going to be a good catcher in this league, but he's not taking the starting job early in the season. Meanwhile, Jansen had a better season than his numbers indicate. His .183 average was due, in large part, to a .190 BABIP, and his xBA was .244. He also had a 6.2% increase in BB% a jump in barrel%, Sweet Spot%, and ISO.

We have to remember that last year was a ridiculously short season, and Jansen got off to a terrible start. He had five solid games in July, but in August he hit .130 with 1 HR and 5 RBI. In September and October, he hit .224 with 4 HR and 13 RBI. Part of that had to do with an adjustment in launch angle, which was up around 22 degrees in August and corrected down around the league-average 12.5-degrees in September. Since Jansen is not a pure power hitter, that lower launch angle is much better for his production. The result was an uptick in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and this massive jump in Hard Hit%.

Jansen is only 26 years old. He's still adjusting to the Major League level. It's clear that those adjustments were starting to work last year and then the season ended. Before you go and anoint his successor, let's see if Jansen can carry that momentum over into 2021.

Yan Gomes, Washington Nationals

Gomes put together a solid season in 2020 while splitting time with Kurt Suzuki. The 33-year-old hit .284 with 4 HR and a .468 slugging percentage, both of which were backed up by a .280 xBA, and .458 xSLG. He seemed to make a concerted effort to pull the ball less and lowered his launch angle to repeat more of a line-drive swing. As a result, his line-drive rate jumped 10%, back close to the level he was at in 2018 when he hit .266 with 16 HRs for Cleveland.

As a .246 career hitter, Gomes brings a safe batting average floor at the catcher position, and, perhaps most importantly, manager Dave Martinez has said that he views Gomes as a 100+ game catcher. Going this late in drafts, I love the safe floor and number of at-bats we're likely to see.

Max Stassi, Los Angeles Angels

Heading into the 2020 season, Max Stassi had hip surgery to clear up a genetic issue. He then worked to fix his posture at the plate and get more rotation in his swing, made possible by the surgery. As a result, he looked great in 31 games, registering a .278/.352/.533 triple-slash with 7 HR and 20 RBI. The Statcast metrics support the quality of contact, as he compiled an 11.1% barrel rate and 91.6 MPH exit velocity.

This offseason, Stassi had the second of his two-part hip surgery and claims to feel the best he has in years. We often use "best shape of his life" to describe players who change their diet or lose weight, but a guy who has corrective surgery to fix a genetic issue that prevented proper rotation seems to fit in a whole other category of "best shape ever." Stassi will likely split time with the aforementioned Suzuki, but if he hits anything like he did last year, expect him to start the lion's share of the game.

Elias Diaz, Colorado Rockies

You want hitters in Coors. This is not a new strategy. After coming over from Pittsburgh last year, Diaz seems to be the starter in Colorado this year. In the small sample size of 2020, he had an 11.3% barrel rate, 41.5% Hard Hit%, and a .265 xBA. He also raised his launch angle as 2020 went on, starting around 12-degrees and spending most of September with a launch angle that hovered around 18 degrees or higher.

Obviously, that would be beneficial when he plays half of his games in the thin Colorado air. As another guy who frequently posts sub-20% strikeout rates, Diaz is going to put the bat on the ball, which usually leads to good things in Coors Field. He's low on this list because he's likely in a timeshare and won't be as valuable away from Coors, but he hit .286 with 10 HR across 82 games in Pittsburgh in 2018, so there is some value in the bat in a nice home situation.

Jacob Stallings, Pittsburgh Pirates

This is a batting average and at-bats play. Stallings will likely have a batting hovering around .250 and is projected for over 100 games started. The Pirates are not going to be good, so he's not going to get you a lot of Runs and RBIs, but he will accumulate enough given the playing time he's likely to get.

When you're getting this far down the list, you're taking shots on guys who don't have a starting job or might not even make the major leagues out of Spring Training. Pivoting to Stallings is a great floor pick.

Jose Trevino, Texas Rangers

Everybody is excited about Sam Huff or Jonah Heim, but Jose Trevino is still the starter in Texas. He hit in the middle of the order last year in part because he saw a massive 10.4% increase in barrel rate. He's another guy who doesn't strikeout a lot, with a minor league K% that hovered around 15%, and should be able to provide a batting average above .240.

Even with the barrel rate improvement, he only had a .434 slugging percentage and two HRs, so don't expect him to be a world-beater, but I think he is another safe floor catcher who is going super late in drafts and could be a good bridge to a young catcher like Daulton Varsho or the guys listed below.

Draft-and-Hold or Best Ball Leagues

Because of the deep benches in a draft-and-hold league, I'm really only concerned with getting one top-tier catcher. I try to grab one within the top-10 in my rankings and then I wait as long as possible, fully expecting that I will be swapping out my second catcher every week based on match-ups and who's swinging a hot bat. That means I usually roster four or five catchers and if two of them are on the same team, all the better because that means I've locked in that position and can play the guy who is getting more at-bats that week based on matchups.

I'm OK drafting a prospect catcher in a draft-and-hold, but then that means I'm usually taking five catchers because I want t0 make sure I have enough options for that second spot so that I can compete in the counting categories and not take zeroes.

Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds 

Tucker Barnhart is the Reds' starting catcher and revamped his swing this year in hopes of unlocking some more offense. I'm not necessarily sure it will enable Barnhart to hold off Stephenson all season; however, the Reds are a playoff contender, so I fully expect them to ride the veteran while they can. As a result, I don't really see Stephenson getting significant at-bats until the summer at the earliest.

When he does get the job, we should also temper expectations. I think the long-term power and offensive upside are real, but, for 2021, I would expect a batting average around .250 with solid power in a strong lineup. I just don't think you're getting much early in the season, which is why I'm not drafting him unless I can hold him on a bench for a couple of months.

Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

I discussed Raleigh here and think that it's not crazy to imagine him earning at-bats over one of Tomy Murphy or Luis Torrens. If he does, he would instantly become one of the best power hitters at the position.

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