X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Carson Wentz to the Colts - Fantasy Impact

Justin Carter analyzes Carson Wentz's trade to the Colts - the 2021 fantasy football outlooks, projections and fantasy outputs for Wentz and Colts skill players.

On Thursday, another shoe dropped in what's already turning out to be a wild offseason at the quarterback position.

With Philip Rivers retiring, the Indianapolis Colts were left with question marks at QB. They attempted to answer those questions on Thursday, dealing a third and a second -- with conditions that could turn it into a first -- to the Eagles for former No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz.

Wentz isn't a slam-dunk option for the Colts, but he's played at an MVP level before, so the Colts are betting on him to bounceback, while the Eagles appear set to roll with Jalen Hurts as their starter. So, with the dust settled from this deal, what's the situation from a fantasy angle?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

How Carson Wentz Impacts The Colts

It's tough to really know what to think of Wentz in Indianapolis because it's tough to know what to think of Wentz.

He just turned 28. He should be in his prime. But his 12 games this year were just atrocious compared to the rest of his career. Just take a look at his five seasons in Philly via Pro Football Reference:

So, Wentz posted the lowest completion percentage of his carer. He threw the most interceptions of his career. He has his lowest touchdown rate since his rookie season and highest interception rate ever.

All the major stats that we use to evaluate quarterbacks showed that 2020 was just a disaster for Wentz, though we can't fully blame it on him, as he was sacked a league-high 50 times despite playing only 12 games. The Eagles offensive line was 31st in adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders. Wentz's lack of mobility made him an easy target for defenders.

The good news? The Colts o-line had the seventh-best adjusted sack rate. Wentz should be kept a lot more upright.

Of course, Wentz was just 36th among quarterbacks in clean pocket completion percentage last year, so him getting more space and time to work with doesn't necessarily mean his numbers will skyrocket.

I would view Wentz as a mid-to-low QB2 when drafting. I do think there's upside here -- this is the guy who in 2017 threw 33 touchdowns in 13 games, with a league-best 7.5 touchdown percentage -- but I don't think anything about the past two seasons has shown me that I should be drafting Wentz at his ceiling. Something is broken with Wentz, but a new home could help fix that, and his interception rate could get back to the sub-two percent mark it was at over the prior three seasons. But even in 2019, Wentz was just 19th in true completion percentage and 22nd in true passer rating.

The one thing I do like about Wentz in Indianapolis: what this does for Michael Pittman Jr.

Wentz was third in air yards per attempt last year and while his deep ball completion percentage of 31.6 percent ranked just 28th, the fact that he's willing to throw deep can help out this offense. Philip Rivers has a reputation as a gunslinger, but last year was 28th in air yards per attempt. Wentz can push the ball down the field, which should allow this team to use Pittman in more creative ways. He wasn't a deep threat last year, garnering just seven deep targets. But with a 93rd percentile speed score, I'd expect the Wentz/Pittman deep connection to be something that happens a good bit this season. Pittman's currently one of my favorite breakout options in 2021, though part of me worries he'll get too much hype.

As for other players, I think people might think that the Colts' tight ends get a boost from this because of how much Wentz targeted Zach Ertz in Philly, but I think part of that was just that Ertz was really, really good. The Colts don't have an Ertz-level tight end, so I don't see too much changing there. And as for the running game, Jonathan Taylor should still be set for an RB1 season, regardless of the quarterback.

 

Jalen Hurts Is (Probably) The Quarterback In Philly

On the other end of this, Jalen Hurts is likely set to be the quarterback in Philly. That would be good news for anyone with Hurts on their current roster and also bad news if you're interested in any of Philly's receivers.

First, let's acknowledge that while Hurts definitely was fun to watch at the end of last season, we can't guarantee he's the starter. The Eagles have the sixth pick in this year's draft and while the trio of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson will almost certainly be gone by then, what's to say that the Eagles won't look for a quarterback with more upside than Hurts, like North Dakota State's Trey Lance? Let's keep that in mind.

But for the rest of this article, we're assuming Hurts is now the starter, at least for 2021.

In that scenario, Hurts seems like a low-end QB1 based on his rushing ability and his aDOT. Take a look at his 2020 game log as a starter:

He ran the ball a lot, which helped compensate for the fact that he never completed more than 56.67 percent of his passes in any game he played. Hurts was eventually benched against Washington -- something that caused a LOT of contention and might have been more about tanking than about Hurts -- after he completed just 7 of his 20 pass attempts for 72 yards and a pick, but not before he scored a pair of rushing touchdowns.

Now, Hurts isn't Taysom Hill, in that I at least have hope that Hurts can become a good-enough NFL passer to allow him to stick in the league. But he's also not going to become a Lamar Jackson-level thrower, if we want to compare him to another quarterback whose game is predicated on his rushing ability.

Still, despite accuracy issues, Hurts had a pair of 300-yard games for the Eagles, though he threw two picks in one of those. He can make plays down the field -- his 9.5 intended air yards per play ranked second in the league last year, behind just Joe Flacco (lol what). But his completion percentage above expectation was fifth-worst, behind Dwayne Haskins, Carson Wentz (hmmmmmm), Drew Lock, and Jimmy Garoppolo. None of those guys are getting talked about as high-end NFL passers.

Those accuracy issues make it hard to trust any Eagles receivers. Even in his 338-yard, three-touchdown game, 15 of his targets went to tight ends, and then he spread the ball out a lot between other guys. Alshon Jeffery's 63 yards were best by a wide receiver, while Jalen Reagor's five receptions topped the position group.

Reagor in particular is the most interesting guy for me. Drafted in the first round, Philly will likely ask him to be Hurts' No. 1 option, but in the four games that Hurts started, Reagor didn't reach 50 yards a single time.

Now, it's hard to have a complete read on the situation until we know what's up at tight end. Will the Eagles move on from Zach Ertz? If so, will they try to bring in another tight end and continue relying on multiple tight end sets? That scenario seems like it might be a way of making things easier on Hurts by giving him more blocking and larger targets, and it would hurt the wide receiver position.

But also, who even are the receivers in Philly beyond Reagor? Greg Ward Jr. and Jalen Hurts showed some good rapport -- is Ward part of the team's future?

So far, I think we're left with more questions than answers in Philly. The one answer I think we do have: if Hurts starts, I'm ranking him as a QB1.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS


Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday

Bears Draft Luther Burden In Round 2
Buffalo Bills

Bills Move Up To 41st Pick In Trade With Bears

Patriots Add TreVeyon Henderson To The Backfield At Pick No. 38
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Acquire 37th Pick From Raiders, Draft Jonah Savaiinaea

Browns Add Quinshon Judkins To Backfield With 36th Pick
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Acquire 35th Pick From Titans, Select Nick Emmanwori

Texans Select Jayden Higgins 34th Overall
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3

Tyler Shough Could Come Off The Board Before Shedeur Sanders
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Isaiah Spiller

Raiders Waive Isaiah Spiller
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
NFL

Several Teams Trying To Trade Up Early In Round 2

Bhayshul Tuten Could Be A Third-Round Pick
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Ryan Weathers

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Sunday
Colby Thomas

Heating Up At Triple-A
Emmanuel Rodriguez

Has Quiet Start To 2025
Jeff McNeil

Hitting Eighth In Season Debut
Brandon Sproat

Coughs Up Six Earned Runs In Latest Start
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez To Start Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF