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Brian Entrekin analyzes four hitters drafted late in 2020 fantasy baseball who enjoyed career seasons and became breakout offensive performers.
The 2020 baseball season was a short one, but still a season where some players could jump onto the scene and give fantasy players something to look forward to in the coming years. Some will say 60 games are not enough for a "career season," but I beg to differ, and so do the four players discussed below. We can always project the players out for a 162-game season or use some other form of projections to assume how their seasons would have ended. Regardless, they had great seasons and should be acknowledged.
When looking at players having career seasons, most are usually players with high expectations going into the season. Well, we were not overly excited about these particular players going into 2020. When looking at the NFBC Sprint Main Event ADP, only one player was a top-200 pick. Three of the four players were drafted after pick 300. It gets even better as one player had an ADP of 441 and was drafted in only 11 of 38 leagues. It is these players that can make or break a fantasy season thanks to their career years.
Let’s take a look back on what went right for these four players propelling them to career years in 2020. Are the changes they made and the production sustainable for 2021? Where should these players potentially be drafted in 2021? So many questions arise when a player bursts onto the scene. Let’s take a look at each player and get an idea of what is in store for 2021.
Mike Yastrzemski (OF, SF)
Yastrzemski burst onto the scene in 2019, playing 107 games for the Giants. After the 2019 campaign, fantasy players had somewhat higher expectations (ADP 314) for Yastrzemski heading into 2020, but he exceeded those in the 54 games he played. He finished the season with a stat line of .297-10-39-35-2 in those 54 games, even while battling a back injury for part of the season. Some may say the counting stats lacked a little, but we have to consider he did this, hitting leadoff for most of the season. Quite a solid season for the Giants’ 30-year-old centerfielder, so what changed to make Yastrzemski breakout?
There were a few changes, but one of the significant changes was his selectivity at the plate, which led to a higher walk rate and more production on pitches thrown in the zone. Yastrzemski saw his first pitch swing rate drop from 29% in 2019 to 24% in 2020, while his walk rate rose from 7.8% to 13.3%. He even saw his strikeout rate drop a couple of points to 24.4%. Being selective did not just lead to more walks but led to a better zone contact rate as it rose from 77.9% to 81%. Yastrzemski was more selective at the plate, leading to better at-bats, and in the end, making better contact on pitches when the pitcher came into the zone.
When some of these pitches come into the zone, some are thrown in the sweet spot. Sweet spot pitches are what they sound like, pitches that are perfect for maximum offensive production. Yastrzemski made sure to make sweet spot pitches pay as he hit sweet spot pitches 35% of the time, but more importantly, he had the best launch angle for success on these pitches 90% of the time. Since barrels are a combination of the right exit velocity and launch angle, hitting sweet spot pitches with a 90% proper launch angle will lead to a lot of offensive production.
2020 was an exciting year for Yastrzemski as he had terrific offensive success, yet there were a few stumbling blocks. His xStats show some regression may have been coming if we played a full 162 game season. Yastrzemski also saw his fly-ball rate drop 10% to 19%, and he was bailed out with an outstanding HR/FB of 37%. The discussion leading into 2021 for Yastrzemski revolves around the chances of repeating his career year. That is yet to be determined, but what you should be able to expect is 25 or so home runs, a .260ish average, solid R and RBI, and a few stolen bases thrown in as well.
Brandon Lowe (2B/OF, TB)
Lowe was an AL Rookie of the Year finalist in 2019, finishing with 17 home runs and a .270 average over 82 games. A strong season, but nothing that moved the needle for fantasy owners heading into 2020 as he had an ADP of 211. The ADP was likely that high because he qualified at second base and that position is one of the worst in fantasy baseball. Lowe kindly rewarded those that drafted him at his post-200 ADP with his stat line of .269-14-36-37-3. He backed up his rookie season with an even better season, a career season.
Lowe’s quality of contact stayed relatively similar, but his change in approach at the plate changed for the better. Lowe appeared to be much more selective at the plate by lowering his chase rate by 10% to 20.9%, his first pitch swing rate to 38.4%, and his overall swing percentage dropped from 54.2% to 46.8%. The more selective Lowe was in 2020 resulted in a massive drop in his strikeout rate from 34.6% to 25.9% and an increased walk rate from 7.6% to 11.2%. By swinging less, yet still being successful, he raised his ISO to a career-best .285 and his wRC+ to a career-best 150.
The projections love him again for 2021 with a stat line of .250-26-76-76-6. That is quite a formidable second baseman on a fantasy roster. His current ADP is currently 71 (6th-second baseman), which is quite the jump from last year’s 211. The 26-year-old Lowe should continue to be a fantasy asset for any roster; it just depends if the juice is worth the squeeze on draft night.
Dominic Smith (1B/OF, NYM)
2020 was a banger of a season for the 2013 first-round pick of the Mets. The 25-year-old Smith finally saw everyday at-bats on his way to playing 50 games between first base and the outfield. His stat line of .316-10-27-42-0 was well ahead of his previous 50 or so game stints. He also saw career years in ISO (.299) and wRC+ (165).
Smith’s Statcast page is bleeding red and is a major starting point in analyzing his 2020 success. He saw his barrel rate (13.3%), hard-hit rate (46.7%), sweet spot % (43%), and his xwOBAcon (.454) all reach career levels. All these increases can support a large uptick in offensive production. If we have to look at a negative, Smith’s xStats show some regression, but it is minor regression and would still result in a nice fantasy season.
When looking ahead to the 2021 season, it looks like Smith will be hitting cleanup for the Mets and playing left field. There are rumors that the Mets will be active in the free-agent market for a lineup upgrade or two, possibly George Springer, which could benefit Smith even more. Smith’s current ADP is 88 according to the early NFBC Draft Champions drafts, a far cry from his 2020 ADP of 441. He will cost a pretty penny, and he will need to hit for a high average once again to justify his increased ADP.
Teoscar Hernandez (OF, TOR)
Hernandez was traded from the Astros to the Jays in the summer of 2017 and made himself a regular piece of the outfield starting in 2018. He was a productive offensive asset hitting 22-26 home runs, stealing five-six bases, and hitting .230-239. These were decent numbers, and entering 2020 some fantasy managers liked the power and speed upside Hernandez could bring to a fantasy roster, especially at his ADP of 301. You could take the batting average hit at that point in the draft. Well, Hernandez rewarded those that took the chance with an outstanding 2020 season (.289-16-33-34-6) where the power and speed were excellent, but the increase in batting average was off the charts.
When digging into the improvements Hernadez made, there are a lot of things that stand out. His barrel rate rose to 18%; his exit velocity rose to 93.3 mph with an incredible 115.9 mph max exit velocity and a 53.1% hard-hit rate. All the significant metrics that result in increased power and overall offensive production jumped off the chart, but let’s dig deeper. He swung less in the zone while chasing more and saw his chase contact rate jump six percent. He was also swinging less frequently early in the count, which may have may have caused him to chase a bit more as the count developed. The bottom line is he hit the ball with a lot more authority with what appears to be a different approach at the plate.
Going into 2021, the question will be about Hernandez’s batting average gains, and are they sustainable? His xBA in 2020 was .295, which says his .289 average was still too low. The majority of his other rates like ground balls, flyballs/line drives, and more were similar to previous seasons. The biggest takeaway was that Hernandez expanded the zone more, and can his quality of contact outside the strike zone remain sustainable? I am a Teoscar believer and do believe he will have another great season. I believe in a .260 average, not .290, but the power and speed will still be in play. His current ADP is 69, the nineteenth outfielder off the board. He has the potential to go 30/10, and if he does that, he is worth every bit of that ADP this season.
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