X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Desert Island Hitter Metrics: Barrels, Walks, and Strikeouts

Vinnie Pasquantino fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB prospects waiver wire pickups

Jordan Rosenblum identifies three key metrics for analyzing overall hitter talent in barrels, strikeouts, and walks to identify fantasy baseball sleepers.

Barrels, walks, and strikeouts are three important indicators of hitting talent.

Previous research by the Baseball Data Machine Learning team has found that a simple metric that sums barrels and walks and subtracts strikeouts, and then divides by plate appearances, offers a good starting point for evaluating a hitter’s talent.

This article builds on that idea, looking at barrels, walks, and strikeouts to consider hitter outlooks for the rest of 2022.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Establishing an improved metric for barrels, strikeouts, walks

To start, I pulled data from Baseball Savant from 2015 to 2022, looking at season pairs where a hitter received a minimum of 90 plate appearances in adjacent seasons. This left me with a sample of 2,342 hitters. The correlation between barrels plus walks minus strikeouts per plate appearance in season one and wOBA in season two is .29 for this sample (note: wOBA is an all-encompassing metric of hitter talent, so new metrics of hitter talent might reasonably hope to have a strong correlation with wOBA).

For reference, the correlation between wOBA in season one and wOBA in season two is .38 for this sample (generally, metrics can be expected to have a strong correlation to themselves in the future relative to other metrics). Barrel plus walks minus strikeouts is a solid proxy of hitter talent then, but significantly lagging wOBA.

If, instead of simply summing walks and barrels and subtracting strikeouts, I assign weights to walks, barrels, and strikeouts generated from regressing season two wOBA on the three components, the correlation between the barrels-walks-strikeouts metric (henceforth BWS, because everyone loves a convoluted acronym, and I don't believe BWS has any pre-established negative connotations) and wOBA improves significantly. The optimal weights to maximize the predictive power of BWS in this sample are -1 for strikeouts, 1.3 for walks, and 4.3 for barrels. These weights improve the correlation between season one BWS and season two wOBA to .42 across the same 2,342 hitter sample, surpassing the strength between season one wOBA and season two wOBA.

 

Best Hitter Seasons by BWS Since 2015

The downside of adding these weights is that they are not easily computable in one’s head, and they are on an unfamiliar scale (league average is 11 in 2022, for instance). The table below shows the best hitters since 2015 by BWS (minimum 190 PA), but I convert them to a z-score (also known as standard score) for ease of interpretation (0 is league average, one is one standard deviation above league average, -1 is one standard deviation below league average, etc.).

Note the correlation between zBWS (z-score of BWS) and wOBA in the same season is .75. The two metrics of hitter talent are highly correlated, but each still offers unique insight.

Table note: all data for this article was collected on 8/15/2022.

Aaron Judge’s historic season rates second only to Juan Soto’s marvelous 2020. The rest of the list is comprised mostly of the game’s best hitters—what you want to see when designing a novel metric that purports to measure hitter talent—with each player also rated extremely well by wOBA – with the exception of Josh Donaldson in 2021, who was more good than great by wOBA, but excellent by zBWS. Donaldson also had an elite xwOBA in 2021, but he suffered from a low BABIP, and BWS does not account for close to everything. For instance, speed is not factored in, which likely played a role in the low BABIP for Donaldson (as opposed to solely bad luck).

 

Interesting BWS Cases in 2022

Next, the table below shows zBWS for interesting names in 2022. For inclusion, there needed to be: 1) a standard deviation difference of at least one in magnitude between zBWS and zwOBA (wOBA also converted to a z-score for ease of comparison); 2) meet my completely arbitrary and hastily determined definition of ‘interesting.’ Note that a one standard deviation shift in zBWS is equivalent to a 28-point shift in wOBA.

In 2022, league average barrel per pa is 5.2%, K% is 22.2%, and BB% is 8.2%. The table is sorted by magnitude of difference between zwOBA and zBWS.

Danny Jansen has cemented himself as a strong all-around catcher who’d see a boost in value if he left Toronto, where he’d get more playing time not having to compete with rising star Alejandro Kirk.

Abraham Toro, Austin Meadows, and Jesse Winker have each had down seasons in 2022, but Toro has maintained good BB% and K%, and Meadows and Winker have maintained elite BB% and K%, while all three have barrel per PA rates close to the MLB average. Winker and Meadows are two of my favorite buy low candidates for 2022 and beyond—particularly Meadows because of how quiet his 2022 has been on the surface (although Meadows still can’t manage to get healthy so buying low may need to wait until 2023).

Slowpoke Carlos Santana looks like a chronic zBWS underperformer and his playing time has become too inconsistent to roster in typical weekly formats, but I’m convinced he’s better than he’s been, and still an above-average hitter when he plays. Another old, slow bat, Nelson Cruz continues to play everyday and showcase solid BWS abilities. I am fine with continuing to run him out there as long as the playing time is there—he may yet have one last hot streak left in him.

Jose Miranda, Michael Harris II, Andres Gimenez, Andrew Vaughn, and Jake McCarthy comprise a group of young 2022 breakouts, to differing degrees. However, zBWS suggests a bit of caution is justified in evaluating each, as only Vaughn has a strong BB% minus K%, while only Harris has a barrel per PA rate significantly above average (7.7%). It is not surprising to see the weak BB% and K% for Harris in particular, as he went straight from Double-A to the majors. Aging growth should also be expected for this group in the longer term, however—they should look better by zBWS in 2023 and beyond. Further, Gimenez, McCarthy, and Harris have serious 2022 value even without super strong hitting skills because of the speed and playing time. I also think Vaughn has more barrel potential in the tank given his prospect pedigree.

Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan are two of baseball’s most extreme contact hitters. Arraez has grown into enough power to be appreciated by both zBWS and zwOBA, but Kwan needs to add a bit of oomph if he is to rate well by zBWS. The Big Three projection systems at FanGraphs appreciate Kwan and Arraez more than zBWS, tending to value both as comfortably above-average bats. zBWS may place a bit too much emphasis on barrels relative to strikeouts and walks and other indicators of contact quality—a future version might incorporate additional quality of contact measures beyond barrels to account for this potential bias.

Randy Arozarena also looks underrated by zBWS, as he possesses rare strong BABIP abilities, and the projections also tend to like him more than zBWS. Still, he’s a better fantasy bat than real life bat given the serious speed. The merely average-ish zwOBA and zBWS gives him some platoon risk, although he’s continued to prove that risk unfounded thus far. With elite K% and strong BB% and barrel per PA rates, Vinnie Pasquantino fully looks the part of the game's next slugging first basemen.

 

Conclusion

A focus on just three metrics, barrels, walks, and strikeouts, cuts through the noise to get at a hitter’s true talent level. Careful thinking and more in-depth research is required to account for the various aspects of hitting BWS does not account for.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Patrick Cantlay42 mins ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López48 mins ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland51 mins ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia57 mins ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 hour ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL1 hour ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette1 hour ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus1 hour ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants1 hour ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears2 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Aaron Civale2 hours ago

Plays Catch On Tuesday
Masataka Yoshida2 hours ago

Resumes Swinging
Sam Ehlinger2 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Liam Hendriks2 hours ago

Resumes Throwing
Guerschon Yabusele2 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Kutter Crawford2 hours ago

Hasn't Faced Hitters
Karl-Anthony Towns2 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals2 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Lucas Giolito2 hours ago

To Make A Rehab Start On Wednesday
Jevon Carter2 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry2 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Brayan Bello2 hours ago

To Make Rehab Start On Tuesday
Julian Phillips2 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Alexis Díaz2 hours ago

Alexis Diaz Throws Live BP On Tuesday
Jalen Smith2 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Max Scherzer3 hours ago

Day-To-Day After Getting Cortisone Shot
Lonzo Ball3 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Freddie Freeman3 hours ago

Likely Out Until Friday
Kevin Huerter3 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Willson Contreras3 hours ago

Taking First Day Off
Josh Giddey3 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton3 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale3 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant3 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal3 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II3 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons3 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young3 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser3 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo3 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud3 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Edouard Julien3 hours ago

Making First Start Of The Season
Isaiah Stewart3 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba4 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga4 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry4 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Dylan Crews4 hours ago

Not Starting Against Blue Jays
Jaylen Brown4 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault4 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.4 hours ago

Sitting Out In New York
Alex Laferriere4 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Paul Goldschmidt4 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff Again
Jonathan Aranda4 hours ago

Christopher Morel Sitting Against Pirates
Luke Schenn4 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Jose Siri4 hours ago

Making Another Start In Center Field
Dante Fabbro4 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Brett Baty4 hours ago

Sitting Against A Right-Hander
Kyle Higashioka4 hours ago

Back In The Lineup, Jonah Heim Takes A Seat
Detroit Lions6 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans7 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders7 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear7 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins7 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL7 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä7 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway7 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal7 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy8 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Geno Smith8 hours ago

Raiders Working On Extension With Geno Smith
Chris Godwin8 hours ago

Buccaneers Optimistic Chris Godwin Will Be Ready For Week 1
Josh Norris8 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams8 hours ago

Coleman Shelton Expected To Start Again In 2025
Brady Tkachuk8 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams8 hours ago

Rams Open To Drafting A Quarterback
Kyren Williams8 hours ago

Rams To Discuss Long-Term Deal With Kyren Williams
Aaron Rodgers8 hours ago

Signs "Pointing" Toward Aaron Rodgers Signing With Steelers
Brock Purdy8 hours ago

49ers Optimistic On Getting Extension Done With Brock Purdy
Jordan Spieth9 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp10 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim10 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood10 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau10 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole11 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith14 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment14 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka14 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov14 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov15 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes15 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens23 hours ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA23 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki1 day ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano1 day ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]