RADIO
We all remember what happened last season in Cleveland. The excitement was there and so were the weapons. Or so we thought.
As with anything in life, things do not always turn out the way we think they will. The team which is supposed to win doesn’t. The player who was supposed to make the big plays doesn’t. In the case of the 2019 Cleveland Browns, it was both of these things and more. The Browns are a cautionary tale of over-confidence, immaturity, and bad coaching all coming together to ruin a lot of fantasy teams.
Coming into the 2020 season we have another team that fits the same bill - the Arizona Cardinals. They have the weapons and should dominate for fantasy. So why shouldn't we trust them? Taking a look at some of the similarities and, more importantly, the differences in the two teams is key to figuring out this conundrum before the drafts get started and we make bad decisions again.
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The Similarities
Off the field, both teams have general managers who have been less than stellar at their jobs. In the case of John Dorsey, it cost him his job. If things do not go right for the Cardinals, the same could be said for Steve Keim after this coming season. The Cards had to burn two early first-round picks to find their QB of the future and still have plenty of work to do in this year's draft in order to become a winning team.
Turning to the field, the similarities are startling. Both teams will entrust their offenses to a second-year quarterback drafted at No. 1 overall. With so much hype surrounding the teams, both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray will be top-10 fantasy picks at the position in drafts. In the case of Mayfield, we saw what this led to as he finished at QB20, something I am sure all of his owners remember. As for Murray, we will have to wait and see where he finishes this season. Although based on current ADP, we had better hope it is in the top three.
The next way these two teams mirror themselves is also strikingly obvious. They both traded for an elite receiver. One who will come in and give their young QB a reliable option in hopes of moving them forward as they grow. With Odell Beckham Jr., the Browns found a diva whom they thought they could rein in with his best friend Jarvis Landry already being on the team. In Arizona, the Cardinals stole DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans to pair with their own slot receiver in Larry Fitzgerald. A consummate professional if there ever was one.
While the trade for Hopkins certainly could be the heist it appears to be, don’t forget. The same was being said about what the Browns gave the Giants last season. Not all trades are as lopsided as they appear on the surface.
Battling through injury in 2019, Beckham finished as the WR36 after being a first-round draft pick. Despite playing all 16 games, Beckham had only 1,035 yards and four touchdowns on 74 receptions. This is a far cry from even the season before. A season in which he caught 77 passes for 1,052 yards in only 12 games. The only good thing about last season for Beckham? It was the first time in his career he played in all 16 games. Oh, and he got to wear a $180,000 watch on the field then whine when people asked him about it. So, there was that.
If there is one way in which Hopkins is far better than Beckham it is in this area. He is consistently on the field each and every week. As they say, the greatest ability is reliability. Hopkins has this ability in spades. This is a great base for Arizona to work with for many years to come. It is also good for us as Hopkins, like Beckham last season, will be a first-round draft pick again. Beckham himself has likely slipped to the third or even fourth round for 2020.
The Differences
The first difference between the two teams is coaching. Kliff Kingsbury is still young entering his second NFL season. But he has already been a head coach in his career. His record of success at the college level does not instill the utmost confidence. His offenses, however, were always in the top 15 and this is all that matters for fantasy anyway. Last season, he came into the desert and behind a rookie QB and terrible offensive line, he was still able to improve the offense.
In the first season under Kingsbury, the 2019 Cardinals ranked 21st in yards per game at 341.7. This was a full 100.1 yards per game more than the 241.6 they averaged in 2018 when they ranked dead last in the NFL in this category.
The Browns, on the other hand, took a shot and missed big-time on a first-time head coach in Freddie Kitchens. Not only was this done to placate Baker Mayfield, but it also led to disaster. The Browns were never able to get going and if not for the run game of Nick Chubb and eventually Kareem Hunt stepping up, their record would have been far worse than the 6-10 they ended at. The disaster led to another firing in Cleveland and it will now be up to Kevin Stefanski to run the team and hopefully help them mature.
There are two other aspects of the teams in which there is a difference. The first of these differences actually benefited the Browns over what the Cardinals will have. As mentioned above, the run game for Cleveland in 2019 was very good. If not for a monster 237 yards from Derrick Henry in Week 17, it would have been Nick Chubb who led the league in rushing yards with his 1,494. Add to this the production added by Kareem Hunt after his return in Week 10 and the leading duo of the Browns rushed for 1,673 yards and also caught a total of 73 receptions on 93 backfield targets. These numbers are going to be better than what Arizona will get from Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds in 2020.
Drake was absolutely great after his trade to the Cardinals in 2019. After the trade, he finished as the fantasy RB4 over the rest of the season. But with a banged-up David Johnson gone and a career backup in Edmonds taking his place, the run game is not as good. Even behind what has to be a better offensive line then what was furnished in Cleveland.
The other difference actually favors Arizona. That difference being the receiving group surrounding Kyler Murray. Yes, the Browns had Beckham and Jarvis Landry. But in Arizona, they not only have the elite threat in Hopkins and a good slot in Larry Fitzgerald, but they also have other receivers who can step up. Unlike Antonio Callaway, who is seemingly taking the same path as Antonio Brown, in Arizona they have promising third-year WR Christian Kirk. He is a player who, with Hopkins now taking the coverage away from him, could have the vaunted breakout we tend to see in the year three season.
Along with Kirk, the Cardinals also have two second-year players who could help out the offense. Both Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler had disappointing rookie seasons. Isabella due to lack of usage and Butler due to missing the season with an injury. Both of these players have a chance to step up in the offense. Even if they are unable, the WRs in Arizona are still deeper than the duo which the Browns trotted out in 2019. And for this offense, with a QB who can scramble to make plays, this will be important.
Learning from the Past
Of course, none of this means a hill of beans unless the Cardinals can protect Murray, unlike what the Browns did for Mayfield in 2019. The Browns let offensive lineman after offensive lineman walk out the door while hoping the weapons could get open in the split second before Mayfield was crushed or forced to get rid of the ball. This did not turn out well as Mayfield was second only to Jameis Winston with 21 interceptions during the year.
With Arizona having the eighth pick in the upcoming draft, they are likely to take a lineman to pair with re-signed D.J. Humphries to provide this protection to Murray. If they do this, they are already ahead of the Browns of last season.
Whether they are able to learn from the sins of the past will make a difference when it comes to their record. With defending conference champion San Francisco leading the way, followed by strong teams in Seattle and Los Angeles, Arizona may be the best team in NFL history to finish last in their division. As for fantasy? As long as they upgrade that offensive line and as long as they give Kyler Murray a chance to improve, he could be the next in a line of sophomore quarterbacks to win the league MVP. If he does, we will all be cheering on our way to championship glory using his surrounding cast. If he crumbles like Baker did last season? We will again be finding ourselves asking what could have been if only.
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