X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Brian Dozier to Nationals - Fantasy Impact

The Washington Nationals recently signed free agent 2B Brian Dozier to add power to their lineup. Walt Cook analyzes the fantasy impact this will have on his teammates and what to expect of Dozier in the 2019 MLB season.

In mid-January, the Nationals inked Brian Dozier to a one-year, $9M contract. Following a disappointing season in which he was hobbled by a knee injury, the veteran second baseman will try to re-establish himself in the pursuit of a long-term contract next off-season as he heads into his age-32 season.

It is worth noting that his overall stat line was dragged down by a career-low BABIP and the lowest HR/FB since 2013, his first full year in the majors. So some positive regression to the league-average is quite possible, as you may have already read.

Dozier may shape up to be a great value on draft day, but a number of red flags must raise warnings to fantasy owners. We also don't know how he'll fit into his new surroundings in Washington, especially as the team is in limbo waiting for Bryce Harper to make a decision. What does the immediate future hold for Dozier and his new teammates?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Elephant in the Room Named Bryce

Unlike his days with the Twins where he hit at the top of the lineup, Dozier likely will hit fifth or sixth in the Nationals lineup (depending on where Ryan Zimmerman hits). According to research by Tanner Bell, the difference between hitting first and sixth in a lineup is approximately 85 PA. But despite getting fewer PA from hitting lower in the lineup, his RBI opportunities should be plentiful hitting behind OBP-savant Juan Soto.

If the Nationals were to re-sign Bryce Harper—another OBP-savant—then Dozier’s RBI opportunities would be even greater. On the other hand, hitting lower in the order will mean a decrease in R. Fortunately, his K% and BB% remained stable, so his BA and OBP should recover if he can improve the BABIP and HR/FB.

Due to his age, degenerative knee, and hitting lower in the batting order, it is possible that Dozier’s days of double-digit steals are over. But if healthy, his power numbers should recover. His Exit Velocity on Fly Balls (EV-FB) dipped from 95.0 mph in 2017 (when he hit 34 HR) to 92.1 in 2018 (21 HR). The difference between 3 mph in EV-FB is worth about 5% HR/FB based on a generalized least squares regression of HR/FB on EV-FB.

That is, a 95 mph EV-FB will yield an expected 19.4% HR/FB while a 92 mph EV-FB will yield 15.4% HR/FB. Those HR/FB translates to approximately 35 HR versus 26 HR (assuming 600 PA, Steamer projected BB% and K%, and career FB%). Therefore, if healthy, Dozier could be a fantastic buy-low candidate at auction/draft.

The addition of Dozier for such a low-cost might allow the Nationals to spend more on an additional free agent, quite possibly the aforementioned Bryce Harper. As discussed above, Harper’s presence in the lineup would increase Dozier’s RBI. In addition, Harper’s high OBP might also increase Dozier’s PA, as Bell’s article demonstrates the relationship between a team’s Runs Scored and PA by lineup position. In other words, offense begets offense and adding Harper back into the Nationals lineup adds a whole lot of offense.

 

It Ain't All Good

Though it is not all good news for Nationals’ players. First, Howie Kendrick will see his role diminished from presumptive starting 2B to utility player, which probably terminates his fantasy relevance in many formats.

Less obvious is that Victor Robles’ production may be adversely affected by the addition of Dozier. The reasoning is as follows: Robles projects to hit in the lower third of the Nationals lineup at the start of the season. Had Kendrick remained the starting 2B and #6 hitter, then there would have been a good chance of Robles supplanting him. Instead, Dozier likely occupies the fifth or sixth spot for the entire season, likely keeping Robles in the seventh or eighth spot.

Robles hitting eighth would be particularly harmful to Robles’ value because typically NL hitters in that spot steal fewer bases than players hitting higher in the lineup. This reduction is stolen base opportunities is due to teams being more likely to sacrifice bunt with a pitcher or, if there are two outs, not wanting to risk a CS and thus lead off the next inning with a pitcher.

Another young National prospect who will be adversely affected is the 21-year-old Carter Kieboom. Although he was not slated to open the year in the majors, he might have played well enough to warrant a mid-season promotion to the majors in a world where the incumbent second baseman is Howie Kendrick. Instead, Kieboom is unlikely to see significant playing time in the majors in 2019 unless injury strikes a starter.

Finally, although Dozier’s defense is irrelevant to his own fantasy value and impact on the Nationals’ lineup, his presence may harm Nationals’ pitchers. Even in his prime Dozier never rated well as a defender by UZR/150. Age and the degenerative knee condition will likely reduce his range even further. Therefore, ground ball pitchers such as Stephen Strasburg and the recently acquired Patrick Corbin may suffer from Dozier’s inferior defense.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF