Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - San Francisco 49ers 2023 Outlook

The San Francisco 49ers have one of the most talented and exciting rosters in the NFL. It's not only that they put up points: they ranked No. 6 in the league in scoring last season and No. 5 in yards per game. The 49ers' dynamic playmakers make memorable plays. Their WR1 can run like a running back. Their RB can line up wide and catch passes like a receiver. 

The 49ers' problem from a fantasy perspective is that they have too much talent. In any game, there are only so many plays. Hence, there are only so many opportunities available. And the Niners under Kyler Shanahan typically run fewer plays than two-thirds of the other teams.

Still, the 49ers can produce a possible RB1, a high-end TE, two WR2s, and a breakout QB -- not to mention multiple IDP stars on defense. The difficulty for me is trying to pick out a bust. Who is it going to be?

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Fantasy Football Breakout: Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy was the QB12 from Weeks 13-17 and the QB9 from Weeks 13-18. So why is he being drafted as the QB24? Seriously?? Behind Kenny Pickett???

Don't listen to anyone who claims he averaged 11.3 points per game. That stat includes three limited relief performances early in the season. He actually averaged 18 points per game in the games he started.

Don't listen to anyone who says he is only succeeding because he is playing in Kyle Shanahan's QB-friendly offense. Brock Purdy and Trey Lance also played in Shanahan's offense, but Purdy produced a higher EPA/play than either of them.

Is Purdy a better quarterback than the great Kenny Pickett? I don't know. I do know he is a better fantasy quarterback. In 2023, Purdy is still playing in Shanahan's QB-friendly offense. 

Fantasy Football Bust: George Kittle

George Kittle is a boom-or-bust tight end who will catch two passes for 22 yards one week, then catch six passes for 120 yards and two touchdowns the next week. Over the full season, he does accumulate a ton of points, and some of his performances will help you win weeks. From Weeks 1 to 17, he was the TE4 in PPR. So what is the problem?

For one thing, there aren't really many busts on the 49ers offense. All of their starters at skill positions should do pretty well. But for another thing, Kittle's top-tier finish was extremely dependent on touchdowns.

Fully a third of Kittle's PPR fantasy points came from his 11 touchdowns, compared to 22% of Travis Kelce's fantasy scoring, 15% of Mark Andrews', and 13% of Evan Engram's. Touchdowns are a high-variable statistic. Prior to last season, Kittle's career-high was six touchdowns.

You might look at Kittle's production with Brock Purdy as quarterback -- he was the TE2 from Weeks 13-17 and the TE1 if you add Week 18 into the mix. He caught seven touchdown passes in the final four games of the season. 

Maybe that's because Purdy likes throwing to his tight end more than Jimmy Garoppolo did. That might be true. But maybe four straight games scoring a touchdown or more is a streak that is difficult to replicate.

Fantasy Football Lock: Christian McCaffrey

Since joining the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey's fantasy value soared. As a Panther for the first six weeks of last season, CMC was the RB4, averaging 19.7 PPR points per game. Then he was traded to the 49ers midseason and became the starter in Week 8. From Weeks 8-17, he was far and away the RB1, averaging 23.7 points per game. (In Week 7, he had a limited role after having joined the team late in the week.)

McCaffrey averaged more yards per attempt, more rushing yards per game, and more yards per reception as a Niner. But the biggest benefit of putting him in red and gold was his increase in touchdowns. He rushed for two touchdowns as a Panther and six as a 49er. He caught four touchdown passes with the Niners and just one as a Panther.

His touchdown spike wasn't random and wasn't even particularly outrageous (like it has been argued about Austin Ekeler). The 49ers are a much better offense than the Panthers. They move the ball more, and they score more points. In fact, the 49ers ranked fourth in the NFL in points per play. They will have a strong offense this year, too.

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