Breakouts Relievers Due for Regression in 2020

March 5, 2020

Frank Ammirante looks at breakout relief pitchers (RP) who are due for statistical regression in 2020 fantasy baseball leagues. These relievers and closers are overvalued based on ADP.

The closer role is one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball. They can lose their fantasy value with a couple of blow-up performances. Teams are also electing to utilize a committee approach, often using their best reliever in high-leverage situations rather than cementing them to the ninth inning. 

This makes it imperative to navigate the closing scene by understanding the likely candidates for regression. Burning a premium draft pick on a high-risk closer is a recipe for disaster that could really become detrimental to your championship prospects.

The following relievers have flaws, either with their inability to suppress home runs, mediocre strikeout rates, or changes in team context. You would be wise to avoid them in your fantasy drafts. 

Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies

Hector Neris regained the closer role and turned in a solid season for the Phillies. His best pitch is a wipe-out splitter (.311 xwOBAcon, 21.5 SwStr%, 10.7 pitchVAL), but his four-seamer can be hit hard (.421 xwOBAcon, 11.9 SwStr%, 4.0 pitchVAL). A change in pitch mix enabled Neris to have more success - he increased his splitter usage by 16.3% and decreased his four-seamer usage by 23.3%. This made it more difficult for hitters to square up his pitches, demonstrated by the decrease in Barrel% from 12.7% to 7.1%.

While it’s clear that Neris has a strong strikeout rate, his propensity for allowing home runs makes him a volatile asset. Despite cutting his HR/9 by 0.75, his 1.33 mark was still mediocre. Neris also got lucky on balls in play, with a .240 BABIP and 83.6 LOB%. It would not surprise me to see Neris removed from the ninth-inning role at some point in 2020.

Taylor Rogers, Minnesota Twins

Taylor Rogers has been a solid reliever for three years now, but he finally got more recognition in 2019 after running away with the closing role in Minnesota. Rogers does a great job inducing groundballs - his 50.6 GB% ranked second among closers, behind Boston’s Brandon Workman. He does this with a 95 MPH two-seamer (.334 xwOBAcon, 62.2 GB%, 6.5 pitchVAL). Rogers also has a nice slider as his strikeout pitch (.296 xwOBAcon, 7.4 pitchVAL, 16.1 SwStr%).

The issue with Rogers is that he does not have the same strikeout ability as other closers - only Mark Melancon, Archie Bradley, and Ian Kennedy had worse SwStr%. This means that we will likely see regression on Rogers’ strikeout rate since his 32.4 K% does not align with his mediocre SwStr%. It’s hard to count on Rogers to remain as one of the top closers in MLB in 2020.

Liam Hendriks, Oakland Athletics

Liam Hendriks was a totally different pitcher in 2019, as he burst onto the scene by taking the closing role from incumbent Blake Treinen. Hendriks changed his pitch mix, throwing his four-seamer 17.2% more often while decreasing his slider usage by 4.6% and increasing the use of his curveball by 6.1%. He also almost totally scrapped his sinker, throwing it only 1.2% of the time in 2019 after 17.7% usage in 2018. Hendriks’ fastball velocity increased from 94.7 MPH to 96.5 MPH. His curveball (.110 xwOBAcon, 2.6 pitchVAL, 23.9 SwStr%) and slider (.315 xwOBAcon, 9.5 pitchVAL, 28.6 SwStr%) were great secondary pitches to his nasty four-seamer (.331 xwOBAcon, 12.2 pitchVAL, 13.5 SwStr%).

The problem is that it’s hard to see Hendriks keeping up this dominance - he was lucky on balls in play (.197 BABIP, 85.7 LOB%). The A’s also seemingly have a new closer every year, so recent history is unfavorable for Hendriks. While he should still put up solid numbers, I wouldn’t count on a  repeat of this elite production.

Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals

Ian Kennedy converted to a reliever in 2020 and did a nice job for the rebuilding Royals. Kennedy was able to increase the velocity on his four-seamer from 91.9 MPH to 94.4 MPH with the move to the bullpen. The issue here is that Kennedy does not miss bats - his 9.9 SwStr% ranked last among all closers. He is also at risk to be traded at the deadline as the Royals try to recoup some assets for the rebuild.

If Kennedy were to be traded, it’s highly likely that his new team will elect to deploy him in a middle-relief role, since his aforementioned average strikeout rate is unsuitable for the closing role on a contending team. Kennedy is probably the most likely candidate for regression on this list, so it’s best to avoid him in your fantasy drafts. 

Emilio Pagan, San Diego Padres

Emilio Pagan improved significantly with the move to Tampa Bay, which is not surprising because the Rays have become one of the best organizations for player development. Pagan was able to increase the velocity on his four-seamer from 93.8 MPH to 95.5 MPH, which greatly improved its effectiveness (.297 xwOBAcon, 12.4 pitchVAL, 18.2 SwStr%). He also threw a wipeout slider (.332 xwOBAcon, 5.9 pitchVAL, 17.4 SwStr%). However, Pagan shows clear signs of potential regression, with a .228 BABIP and 94.8 LOB%. Simply put, he won’t be getting that kind of luck on balls in play again.

The Rays have also traded him to the Padres, where he’ll slot in behind elite closer Kirby Yates as a setup reliever. That effectively kills any hopes that he will be collecting saves this season. I would expect Pagan to return closer to his career norms in San Diego, as the Rays clearly know what they’re doing here - selling high on an overperforming asset. With the Padres’ stacked bullpen, it would not be surprising to see Pagan surpassed in the closing hierarchy by relievers like Andres Munoz too. You would be wise to pass on Pagan, even in deeper formats.

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