X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakouts Relievers Due for Regression in 2020

The closer role is one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball. They can lose their fantasy value with a couple of blow-up performances. Teams are also electing to utilize a committee approach, often using their best reliever in high-leverage situations rather than cementing them to the ninth inning. 

This makes it imperative to navigate the closing scene by understanding the likely candidates for regression. Burning a premium draft pick on a high-risk closer is a recipe for disaster that could really become detrimental to your championship prospects.

The following relievers have flaws, either with their inability to suppress home runs, mediocre strikeout rates, or changes in team context. You would be wise to avoid them in your fantasy drafts. 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Hector NerisPhiladelphia Phillies

Year ERA WHIP SV BB% K% xFIP SIERA HR/9 SwStr%
2018 5.10 1.30 11 7.9 37.4 2.71 2.28 2.08 19.1
2019 2.93 1.02 28 8.7 32.4 3.53 3.23 1.33 17.6

Hector Neris regained the closer role and turned in a solid season for the Phillies. His best pitch is a wipe-out splitter (.311 xwOBAcon, 21.5 SwStr%, 10.7 pitchVAL), but his four-seamer can be hit hard (.421 xwOBAcon, 11.9 SwStr%, 4.0 pitchVAL). A change in pitch mix enabled Neris to have more success - he increased his splitter usage by 16.3% and decreased his four-seamer usage by 23.3%. This made it more difficult for hitters to square up his pitches, demonstrated by the decrease in Barrel% from 12.7% to 7.1%.

While it’s clear that Neris has a strong strikeout rate, his propensity for allowing home runs makes him a volatile asset. Despite cutting his HR/9 by 0.75, his 1.33 mark was still mediocre. Neris also got lucky on balls in play, with a .240 BABIP and 83.6 LOB%. It would not surprise me to see Neris removed from the ninth-inning role at some point in 2020.

 

Taylor RogersMinnesota Twins

Year ERA WHIP SV BB% K% xFIP SIERA HR/9 SwStr%
2018 2.63 0.95 2 6.2 28.9 2.94 2.81 0.40 11.3
2019 2.61 1.00 30 4.0 32.4 2.84 2.63 1.04 10.9

Taylor Rogers has been a solid reliever for three years now, but he finally got more recognition in 2019 after running away with the closing role in Minnesota. Rogers does a great job inducing groundballs - his 50.6 GB% ranked second among closers, behind Boston’s Brandon Workman. He does this with a 95 MPH two-seamer (.334 xwOBAcon, 62.2 GB%, 6.5 pitchVAL). Rogers also has a nice slider as his strikeout pitch (.296 xwOBAcon, 7.4 pitchVAL, 16.1 SwStr%).

The issue with Rogers is that he does not have the same strikeout ability as other closers - only Mark Melancon, Archie Bradley, and Ian Kennedy had worse SwStr%. This means that we will likely see regression on Rogers’ strikeout rate since his 32.4 K% does not align with his mediocre SwStr%. It’s hard to count on Rogers to remain as one of the top closers in MLB in 2020.

 

Liam HendriksOakland Athletics

Year ERA WHIP SV BB% K% xFIP SIERA HR/9 SwStr%
2018 4.13 1.46 0 9.6 21.2 4.56 4.29 1.13 11.2
2019 1.80 0.96 25 6.3 37.4 3.21 2.58 0.53 17.0

Liam Hendriks was a totally different pitcher in 2019, as he burst onto the scene by taking the closing role from incumbent Blake Treinen. Hendriks changed his pitch mix, throwing his four-seamer 17.2% more often while decreasing his slider usage by 4.6% and increasing the use of his curveball by 6.1%. He also almost totally scrapped his sinker, throwing it only 1.2% of the time in 2019 after 17.7% usage in 2018. Hendriks’ fastball velocity increased from 94.7 MPH to 96.5 MPH. His curveball (.110 xwOBAcon, 2.6 pitchVAL, 23.9 SwStr%) and slider (.315 xwOBAcon, 9.5 pitchVAL, 28.6 SwStr%) were great secondary pitches to his nasty four-seamer (.331 xwOBAcon, 12.2 pitchVAL, 13.5 SwStr%).

The problem is that it’s hard to see Hendriks keeping up this dominance - he was lucky on balls in play (.197 BABIP, 85.7 LOB%). The A’s also seemingly have a new closer every year, so recent history is unfavorable for Hendriks. While he should still put up solid numbers, I wouldn’t count on a  repeat of this elite production.

 

Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals

Year ERA WHIP SV BB% K% xFIP SIERA HR/9 SwStr%
2018 4.66 1.46 0 7.7 20.3 4.64 4.55 1.50 8.2
2019 3.41 0.96 30 6.4 27.4 3.77 3.46 0.85 9.9

Ian Kennedy converted to a reliever in 2020 and did a nice job for the rebuilding Royals. Kennedy was able to increase the velocity on his four-seamer from 91.9 MPH to 94.4 MPH with the move to the bullpen. The issue here is that Kennedy does not miss bats - his 9.9 SwStr% ranked last among all closers. He is also at risk to be traded at the deadline as the Royals try to recoup some assets for the rebuild.

If Kennedy were to be traded, it’s highly likely that his new team will elect to deploy him in a middle-relief role, since his aforementioned average strikeout rate is unsuitable for the closing role on a contending team. Kennedy is probably the most likely candidate for regression on this list, so it’s best to avoid him in your fantasy drafts. 

 

Emilio PaganSan Diego Padres

Year ERA WHIP SV BB% K% xFIP SIERA HR/9 SwStr%
2018 4.35 1.19 0 7.3 24.1 4.75 3.86 1.89 14.0
2019 2.31 0.83 20 4.9 36.0 3.15 2.54 1.54 17.6

Emilio Pagan improved significantly with the move to Tampa Bay, which is not surprising because the Rays have become one of the best organizations for player development. Pagan was able to increase the velocity on his four-seamer from 93.8 MPH to 95.5 MPH, which greatly improved its effectiveness (.297 xwOBAcon, 12.4 pitchVAL, 18.2 SwStr%). He also threw a wipeout slider (.332 xwOBAcon, 5.9 pitchVAL, 17.4 SwStr%). However, Pagan shows clear signs of potential regression, with a .228 BABIP and 94.8 LOB%. Simply put, he won’t be getting that kind of luck on balls in play again.

The Rays have also traded him to the Padres, where he’ll slot in behind elite closer Kirby Yates as a setup reliever. That effectively kills any hopes that he will be collecting saves this season. I would expect Pagan to return closer to his career norms in San Diego, as the Rays clearly know what they’re doing here - selling high on an overperforming asset. With the Padres’ stacked bullpen, it would not be surprising to see Pagan surpassed in the closing hierarchy by relievers like Andres Munoz too. You would be wise to pass on Pagan, even in deeper formats.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cedric Tillman55 mins ago

Suffers Head Injury On Thursday Night
Wendell Carter Jr.2 hours ago

Out Against Lakers
Anthony Davis2 hours ago

Available Versus Magic On Thursday
Rui Hachimura3 hours ago

Unavailable Thursday
Carlos Ulberg3 hours ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir3 hours ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes3 hours ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA3 hours ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo3 hours ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan3 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Yves Missi4 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
CJ McCollum4 hours ago

Not Likely To Play Friday
Alexander Mattison4 hours ago

Zamir White Miss Practice Again
Brandon Ingram4 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Shohei Ohtani4 hours ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge4 hours ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Ja'Kobe Walter5 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Donte DiVincenzo5 hours ago

Available Thursday
Mike Conley5 hours ago

Will Not Play Thursday
Jordan Clarkson5 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Ausar Thompson5 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Zach Collins5 hours ago

Cleared To Play Thursday
Domantas Sabonis5 hours ago

Gets Through Full Practice
Chris Paul5 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Brock Purdy5 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Malik Monk5 hours ago

Making Progress
George Kittle5 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Tre Mann5 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Miles Bridges6 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Vince Williams Jr.6 hours ago

Out At Least A Month
Scottie Barnes6 hours ago

Returning On Thursday
Alex Ovechkin6 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Paul George6 hours ago

Out At Least Two Games
Aaron Gordon6 hours ago

Availability In Question For Friday
Zach Hyman6 hours ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson6 hours ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Yaroslav Askarov6 hours ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Jalen Hurts6 hours ago

Practices In Full On Thursday
Mikael Granlund6 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Alexandar Georgiev7 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
TB7 hours ago

Nicholas Paul Will Miss Thursday's Game
Frederik Andersen7 hours ago

To Miss 8-12 Weeks
Jake Ferguson7 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Sam LaPorta7 hours ago

Looking Good For A Week 12 Return
Sam Darnold7 hours ago

Upgrades To Full Participation, On Track To Play
Isiah Pacheco7 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
D'Andre Swift7 hours ago

Upgrades To Limited Participant On Thursday
CeeDee Lamb8 hours ago

Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Ladd McConkey8 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Thursday
Mike Evans8 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Thursday
DeVonta Smith9 hours ago

Misses Another Practice
Cody Bellinger10 hours ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
Brandin Cooks10 hours ago

Preparing To Play In Week 12
CeeDee Lamb10 hours ago

Not Seen At Thursday's Practice
10 hours ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Aaron Rodgers10 hours ago

Jets Owner Suggested Benching Aaron Rodgers
Mike Evans12 hours ago

Practicing Again On Thursday
Chandler Stephenson13 hours ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson13 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist13 hours ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies13 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund14 hours ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine14 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Chris Sale1 day ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal1 day ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat1 day ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Josh Jacobs1 day ago

Limited With Multiple Injuries
DeVonta Smith1 day ago

Misses Practice On Wednesday
Seth Jones1 day ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Limited With Foot Injury
Max Domi1 day ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Connor Ingram1 day ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen1 day ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
Alex Tuch1 day ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Jordan Eberle1 day ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
Ludvig Aberg1 day ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole1 day ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
2 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri2 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
2 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
2 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
2 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
2 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
2 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil3 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer3 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
3 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
3 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler3 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva3 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy4 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
James Llontop5 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig5 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal5 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic5 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones5 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP