Breakout Fantasy Football Quarterbacks - Must-Have Late Round ADP Value Picks

August 8, 2023

Justin's potential breakout quarterback sleepers for 2023 fantasy football. These NFL QBs are being drafted with a late round ADP and can be league winners.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts are league-winning quarterbacks who will be drafted in the first two rounds of most fantasy leagues. Players like Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Justin Fields are also players who'll be drafted in the top 50 and can help anchor the QB position for your roster.

If you miss out on all those guys, there's a valid argument that the gap between the next tier of players—the Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, and Aaron Rodgers' of the world—and some of the guys going after pick 150 isn't that big. Those aforementioned guys are safer, but there are deeper sleepers who can help you win a fantasy title.

Below are three quarterbacks with late-round ADPs who have a chance to break out in 2023. The first two are intriguing picks in one-QB leagues, while the third is geared toward people playing in Superflex.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Consensus ADP: QB19

Anthony Richardson's been getting drafted as the top rookie quarterback for a number of reasons, with his athleticism being a big part of that. However, Richardson's also such a raw prospect—let's not forget that he completed just 53.8% of his passes last season at Florida.

I view Bryce Young as the top rookie passer in fantasy. He might not offer the same rushing upside, but he's not some non-entity on the ground—he had four rushing touchdowns last year, which isn't the nine that Richardson had, but it's something. Young also has a lot higher floor when it comes to throwing the ball.

Yes, Young played with a lot of talent at Alabama, which helped contribute to his otherwordly numbers in his two seasons as the team's starter. He threw 79 touchdowns in those two seasons with just 12 interceptions, and he completed over 64% of his passes in both seasons.

He'll also be surrounded by a really underrated group of weapons in Carolina. D.J. Chark, Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall Jr., and Hayden Hurst are a really solid collection of talent. If Young stays healthy—and his small frame could pose an issue in that regard—then he's going to have a really solid rookie campaign.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Consensus ADP: QB26

I really don't know what to expect out of Jordan Love as he takes over the Packers, but I think his arm strength alone gives him more upside than other quarterbacks in this range. Sure, Love could crash and burn, but he's simply got more upside than players like Jimmy Garoppolo, Mac Jones, and Ryan Tannehill. Based on ADP, he's the last potential league winner in single-QB leagues.

There are definitely question marks about the supporting cast for Love. Christian Watson had a great rookie year, catching seven touchdowns, and Romeo Doubs has upside. This is still a young group—Love, a first-year starter, will largely be throwing to players who joined the NFL last year or this year.

There's a reason the Packers drafted Love in the first round in 2020 despite having Aaron Rodgers on the roster: he's got a huge arm. He moves well in the pocket, and he's been fairly on-point with the limited number of NFL throws he's had so far.

I also think that Love having been in this system for so long should allow him to adjust to the starting job quickly. He's not a rookie—he's entering his fourth season in the NFL. And he wasn't sitting because he was bad—he was sitting because Aaron Rodgers was out there winning MVPs as the Packers' starting quarterback.

Love has a chance to really surprise some people this season.

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders

Consensus ADP: QB31

Alright, hear me out here. This one's exclusively for those of you in superflex or two-QB leagues, where I think Sam Howell can make an impact.

Before I talk about Howell though, let's address the elephant in the room: Jacoby Brissett. I love Brissett! He's a solid bridge QB. And there's been chatter he could wind up starting.

But look—what's the reason to start Brissett? He's 30 years old and is on his fourth team in four years. The Commanders know he isn't the long-term answer. They don't know if Howell is, and the smart move here is to start him and see.

Now, moving on to Howell himself. The former UNC passer was getting some hype as the potential first pick after the 2020 season. He struggled a little in 2021, with his completion percentage dropping from 68.1% to 62.5%, but he wasn't bad for the Tarheels, and he also really, really picked up his run game, rushing for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns.

When it comes to fantasy, that rushing ability is really what makes Howell appealing to me. In his one start last season, he had five carries for 35 yards and a touchdown, showcasing his ability to move the ball on the ground. Howell is someone who can make plays with his legs when things break down.

Add in that he has Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel to throw the ball to and Howell has a chance to be a really good fantasy quarterback. He might have his struggles at times when throwing, but the fact that he can get so many yards on the ground boosts his value. We all play fantasy football here, so I don't need to tell you that a rushing yard is worth more fantasy points than a passing yard.

Howell's being drafted after guys like Mac Jones and Ryan Tannehill, but his rushing upside makes him a more interesting pick than those guys. The concern that he loses his job to Jacoby Brissett before the season even starts does limit the upside, but assuming Howell starts Week 1, my bold prediction is he finishes as a top-20 fantasy quarterback.

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