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Jon Anderson looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers and potential sleepers for Week 2. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
We've got a week of baseball data in the books, and we're back for breakout hitter watch – week two!
The data samples are still quite small, of course, so we have to continue to rely on some non-numerical data here. As you see, I'll still be relying a bit more on the current and former top-prospects who have started the year hot.
Let's rehash the process off what we're doing here and then get you five hitters that have potentially begun their breakout 2022 seasons.
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The Process
The beauty of Baseball Savant is that it gives us one of the richest datasets in the entire world, and I'm not even talking about just the sports world. Every day, tens of thousands of data points are generated from Major League Baseball games, capturing nearly everything that happens on the field. This gives us more powerful and rich data than we ever had before.
More data does not always mean better insights, but in this case, it does mean that if we're smart, we can get find legitimate conclusions and takeaways from the data much earlier than before. We don't really need to wait for a 400 plate appearance sample to feel confident that a hitter has actually improved, we can do that much more quickly now.
That isn't to say that some players won't fool us early on, it's not impossible to luck into a couple of weeks of checking every box at the plate, but the things we're looking for more often than not give us a pretty good idea of what's true.
Some of those things we're looking for:
- Contact Rate. We'll be looking for hitters that are making much more contact on their swings than in years past, which is a tough thing to fake for even a few weeks of time.
- Barrel Rate. These batted ball types (by exit velocity and exit angle) are great indicators of power potential.
- Max Exit Velocity. This gives us a good picture of raw bat speed. If we suddenly see a player beat his career-best maximum exit velocity by three miles per hour, we'll know he's swinging the bat harder than before.
- Plate Patience Metrics. We'll see which hitters are swinging more or less, and we can even break that down by the quality of the pitches they're offering at or letting go by.
The Breakouts
Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
I'm writing this before the Guardians game on Wednesday, so we have to deal with a bit of outdated data here. What we saw from Kwan prior to yesterday was this:
| Pitches Seen | Swings | Contact | Whiffs | BIP | Brls | HR | K | BB |
| 115 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
That nearly unbelievable contact ability and plate discipline resulted in a .667/.750/.933 slash line through 24 plate appearances for Kwan. It was also quite encouraging to see him achieve a barrel and hit a ball above 100 miles per hour (103 to be exact), showing that he does have enough bat speed to put up some dingers while he reaches base at an absurd clip.
I'm sure you've heard plenty about Kwan, but I'm here to tell you that he should absolutely be 100% rostered, and if he's available you should pick him up and start him. Maybe he's not a 20-homer guy, but it sure seems like he has enough power and speed to justify starting his elite batting average and on-base percentage, and the runs and RBI that follow along with it.
The upside is something like a .330 batting average with 15-20 homers, 10-15 steals, and 80+ runs scored assuming he stays at the top of the batting order.
Wednesday update: Kwan went down looking on strikes in the first inning on Wednesday, ending the 0% K%. Very sad.
Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers
Plenty of people gave up on Lux coming into 2022, as he had slashed a pedestrian .233/.314/.368 through 532 plate appearances from 2019 to 2021. His totals of 12 homers and seven steals were really, really disappointing based on how touted he was as a prospect. It's important to not give up on a top prospect too quickly, and that's especially true when you're talking about a guy who is just 24 years old currently.
Lux has looked awesome in the first week of games this year (although that's just four games in this case). Through his first 15 plate appearances, he achieved two barrels without a single strikeout. He hasn't seen a ball clear a fence yet, but his slash line of .417/.467/.500 has been very encouraging, especially so as he's added on a 13% BB% here.
I put a bit of an arbitrary leaderboard together to prove my point further. Here are all of the league's hitters with multiple barrels, less than two strikeouts, and an average exit velocity above 90 miles per hour.
It's very early on here, of course, but this is exactly what we want to see from Lux in any size sample. Last season he greatly improved his strikeout rate, but it was at the expense of hitting for any kind of power. He's already hit six balls above 100 miles per hour, so he's displaying some of that bat speed he was so highly touted as possessing.
One issue is that he's been locked into the ninth spot in the Dodgers order. In usual circumstances, you would have to imagine a guy mashing the ball would quickly move up in the batting order, but with this Dodgers lineup, there really aren't many hitters you can justifiably move down. Certainly, it could happen for Lux though, and right now he's swinging a bat that plays for fantasy purposes even in the real-life nine-hole.
Wednesday update: Lux put his first homer of the year on the board in the eighth inning, adding to the legend!
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
We alluded to Vaughn in that table above, but man he's looked awesome early on this season. Prior to Wednesday, he had made just 11 plate appearances, but in those PA's he whiffed just once, did not strike out, and hit two homers on two barrels.
The sample size is smaller than it even needs to be, because for some reason Tony LaRussa has been starting Gavin Sheets over Vaughn against righties, but I don't imagine that keeps happening. One of his two homers was against a right-handed pitcher, and he's posted a 100% contact rate in six plate appearances against righties as well. I don't think this will be a platoon situation for long.
The prospect pedigree really helps here. I'm not going to be writing up Josh Harrison as a breakout even though his numbers are right there with Vaughn and Lux so far. We just know who Harrison is, and he's mediocre. Young guys that had tons of success in the minors like Lux and Vaughn are so easy to see a breakout coming from, and the early signs are pointing towards that being the case.
Jesus Sanchez, Miami Marlins
Another former highly-touted prospect that struggled last season. Sanchez slashed .251/.319/.489 with the Marlins last season, bogged down by a high 31% strikeout rate. The bat speed and raw power were displayed in that season, as he mashed 14 homers in just 251 plate appearances – more than 30 homer pace if you're into extrapolation.
He's already hit two bombs this year, and they've been quite impressive.
Sanchez currently has the league's sixth-highest maximum exit velocity at 114.6, and he only struck out four times in his first 21 plate appearances with an improved 77% contact rate.
It's unlikely he'll sustain a strikeout rate in the low twenties, but the good news is he doesn't have to. The power is good enough for him to be super-useful fantasy bat even with a 25-28% K%. Keep a close eye on that figure for Sanchez, but I'd be starting him right now.
Austin Nola, San Diego Padres
We saw how good Nola could be in 2020, but his 2021 season wasn't great with a .272/.340/.376 line – showing very little power (two homers in 194 PA). The biggest problem was his health, as you can see there. He's healthy right now and had a great Spring Training for the Padres.
So far in the regular season, he's posted a very strong 91% contact rate with just three strikeouts through 22 plate appearances. He added a homer to that and has put 10 of his 18 batted balls in the air. He has also been featured mostly at the top of the lineup, hitting lead-off or second in four of his five starts. He's certainly worth an add at a weak catcher position.
That's it for week two, check back next week as we highlight additional names with more and better data to use!
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