RADIO
Soon, the always compelling free agency period will erupt, which will unleash numerous changes into the fantasy landscape. This will cause us to adjust our perceptions regarding certain players, while also providing clarity concerning the roster composition of their teams.
However, we have already witnessed some critical decisions being made during this initial phase of the offseason, as the result of trades, contractual agreements, and coaching changes. Not only has this provided pertinent answers that we have been craving for weeks, but this information is also beneficial when forecasting the 2018 output of the players who have been impacted.
Every new development is integrated into our projections at RotoBaller, where we have already completed early breakouts for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Now, the spotlight will shift to the signal callers, in an effort to determine who might replicate the dramatic increase in fantasy relevance that was achieved by Carson Wentz and Jared Goff in 2017. Without further delay, let's examine the early breakout quarterbacks for 2018.
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Quarterbacks Ready to Breakout
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
A voluminous list of accolades has been building since Garoppolo assembled 1,542 yards and six touchdowns during a torrid five-game stretch last December, when he also completed 67% of his passes, and averaged 8.7 YPA. Much of the seemingly boundless enthusiasm is justified, and the 26-year old signal caller impressed the 49ers sufficiently to garner a five-year, $137.5 million contract. But it is important to frame his 2017 numbers with some much-needed perspective. Despite his noteworthy performances, we will proceed with the belief that neither a five-game span, or a seven-touchdown season, is sufficient to constitute a breakout year.
But his production does indicate that he can remain proficient during a 16-game schedule, which qualifies Garoppolo as an outstanding breakout candidate for 2018. His late season numbers were manufactured with Marquise Goodwin functioning as his primary receiver, as the duo connected on 29 passes for 384 yards in Weeks 13-17. Goodwin will still be deployed as a deep threat, but will operate in a secondary role behind Pierre Garcon. The 31-year old was averaging 8.3 targets per game before a neck injury concluded his season in Week 8, and his presence instantly upgrades Garoppolo’s receiving arsenal. Trent Taylor and George Kittle will also return for their second seasons, and the 49ers could upgrade Garoppolo’s options during free agency or the NFL Draft. When you blend the continued guidance of Kyle Shanahan into the equation, Garoppolo becomes an enticing QB1 option in 2018.
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Mariota was considered to be a prime breakout candidate by a number of analysts and owners in 2017. But instead of building upon the promising 26:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio that he constructed in 2016, Mariota struggled to an unsightly 13:15 ratio during a nightmarish season of regression. Mariota, Corey Davis, and Rishard Matthews all dealt with lingering hamstring injuries, and Eric Decker was a consistent disappointment, which all contributed to Mariota's decline. But the primary culprit was Mike Mularkey’s exotic smashmouth philosophy, that failed to take advantage of the intangibles that Mariota brings to an offense, and effectively collapsed his ceiling.
But there is ample reason to believe that Mariota will elevate into weekly QB1 consideration during his fourth season, as he will be spearheading an offense that is more tailored to his strengths. New OC Matt LaFleur's resume includes stints with Sean McVay and Shanahan from 2015-2017. Where he played a sizable role in Matt Ryan's MVP season of 2016, then was a major contributor to the mammoth improvement that Goff achieved last year. His tutelage should improve Mariota's mechanics, while LaFleur's play calling will take advantage of Mariota's playmaking abilities. This should be a liberating process for Mariota, who will now have more opportunities to generate big plays with his primary receiving weapons. It is critical that he locate Davis with greater frequency, after the tandem failed to connect on a touchdown until the postseason. Mariota can also collect yardage on the ground, which should facilitate his long-awaited breakout season.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
When the Chiefs relinquished three draft picks (including this year's first rounder) for the opportunity to seize Mahomes during the 2017 NFL Draft, that initiated a launch sequence which would inevitably propel the 6’2” gunslinger into the starting role. The process accelerated when Alex Smith was dispatched to Washington, and Mahomes will now be entrusted with spearheading Kansas City’s attack.
His size, arm strength, and ability to thrive within the Air Raid offense at Texas Tech have been well-chronicled. But he enters 2018 with just 63 career snaps, which all occurred during his Week 17 start at Denver. He connected on 22 of his 35 passes for 284 yards during that encounter, while failing to generate a touchdown. However, he did display the attributes that convinced Kansas City to draft him. He is mobile, supremely confident, and has the propensity to launch deep throws. Although he must learn to avoid making critical mistakes through his aggressiveness.
Mahomes will have the luxury of lining up with three dynamic weapons, beginning with Kareem Hunt. Who supplemented his league rushing title by finishing eighth among all backs with 455 receiving yards, while garnering the 11th most receptions at his position (53). Tyreek Hill led the league with nine receptions of 40+ yards, and his potential to explode for big plays expands considerably with Mahomes replacing Smith under center. Mahomes will also benefit significantly from locating Travis Kelce, who led all tight ends in targets (122), receptions (83), receptions of 20+ (19), and was second in yardage (1,038), and touchdowns (8). As Mahomes gains experience in 2018, his immense physical talent will combine with Andy Reed's wisdom to deliver a breakout season.
