X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breaking Down UFC Fight Island - UFC 251: Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo

Antonio looks at the title fight between Petr Yan and Jose Aldo that will take place in UFC 251 and breaks down the numbers of both fighters previewing the upcoming bout.

It's almost here, folks. We're just days away of making Fight Island a reality. I know you are disappointed about the fact that we're not going to watch athletes fight inside an octagon placed in the middle of a sandy beach, but what we're about to witness will make it to history books. The UFC, making up for the time lost due to the COVID pandemic, will be running four cards in a span of two weeks and put four titles up for grabs. That, simply put, is going to be insane.

Yas Island will be the place and starting July 11 we'll be kicking things off with UFC 251 and three titles on the line (welterweight, featherweight, and bantamweight) to then follow those three with another one at the flyweight class a week later. The names involved in those fights can't be bigger: from Kamaru Usman to Max Holloway with a ton of legends in the middle (Jose Aldo, Joseph Benavidez, etc...).

In this series of articles, I'll break down the four title bouts about to happen during the next weeks over Fight Island. I will present to you the contestants, look at their past stats, and explore some fantasy numbers to get you ready for fight time. Don't forget to check out all of our MMA Content here at RotoBaller, and give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana!

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Tale of the Tape

This past May, now-retired Henry Cejudo defeated Dominick Cruz to retain his bantamweight belt. Just minutes after the fight ended, he announced his farewell, leaving the title vacant. With Aljamain Sterling already booked for a bout a month later, the fight between Petr Yan and Jose Aldo was the next-best thing the UFC could do to crown a new bantamweight champ. And here we are.

The contrast between the most basic of information from these two can't be greater. Jose Aldo is a staple in the mixed martial arts world. He's been fighting forever, yet he's only 33 years old and is now testing the bantamweight waters after dominating the featherweight division for the better part of the last decade. Petr Yan is a much less experienced pro fighter, although he's been a true hurricane and knows no defeat. Both fighters are pretty close when it comes to the builds they bring to the table, with age being the only differentiating factor between them.

 

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Fighting History

Experience is the ultimate separator between these two. I have only plotted (and will be using data) from fights to be held from 2017 on, as Petr Yan did not even debut in the UFC until 2018.

When Aldo joined the promotion back in 2010, he already snatched the featherweight title in his first fight and didn't relinquish it until December 2015 after defending the belt successfully seven times in a row. From his defeat to Conor McGregor on, though, he's 3-5 in his eight last fights, including a 2-4 run since 2017. He dropped his debut in the bantamweight division versus Marlon Moraes this past December, and he's at a breaking point where he better rebound with a win sooner rather than later to preserve his legacy and extend his future.

Petr Yan's six UFC fights couldn't have gone better for the Russian. He stomped Teruto Ishihara in his debut with a first-round KO, went on to knock out two more fighters in the other five bouts, and won the three remaining via decision. Yan knows no defeat and counts his fights by wins, and he's more than deserving at a shot at the vacant title, which wouldn't look out of place at all around his waist.

 

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Significant Strikes

The Russian youngin' is favored on the striking side of things. Yan's 12.0 SS per minute is quite high and outpaces Aldo's outcome by almost 2.5 strikes per 60 seconds. Most importantly, though, is the fact that Yan lands those SS at a higher rate (50.2%) than Aldo does these days (46%), which is even more crucial considering Yan does it on a bigger volume.

When it comes to defending themselves from being hit, Aldo has had a much tougher life on that side of the game than Yan (in contrast with what happens with takedown-defense, as we'll see later). Rivals attack Aldo on a much greater volume than they do Yan via strikes, with almost a five-SS difference between both fighters. Again, Yan outperforms Aldo here with a much better striking defense with which he only allows foes to land 33.0% of the SS they throw his way compared to Aldo's 45% success rate allowed to rivals.

 

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Takedowns

With the exception of two fights going all the way back to 2011, Aldo has never attempted more than two takedowns in his career. He's topped one just twice in two fights since 2017, and he didn't land any of those two attempts. You can see the contrast with Yan's approach to the ground game.

Petr Yan attempts 0.2 takedowns per minute or one per completed round at least. That's why he's gone for at least a couple of takedowns in his last five fights and an average of 4.6 attempts per fight in that same span. Not only that, but his success rate is quite high at 49.7%, virtually landing half of the attempts he launches. That might not end in a real-life submission (Yan has never won that way) but it's a true contest-winning approach in fantasy terms.

As I said in the section above about striking, the defensive mindset that these two fighters have to go with every night is quite different. While Aldo is always able to keep rivals from even attempting to take him down, Yan faces almost 0.4 takedown attempts per minute. That doesn't put him in too much danger, though, as he's only allowed 6.5% of those attempts (3-for-24) to actually land in his six UFC fights, and the most he allowed in a single fight were two by John Dodson.

 

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Fantasy Upside

Given that Aldo hasn't been part of title fights as of late, and that the last two he was involved with finished inside the third round (two KOs versus Max Holloway in 2017), both fighters can be measured on the same terms when it comes to time spent inside the octagon, which interestingly is the same for both. The 11.5 minutes per fight might be equal, but the outcomes are absolutely distant: Yan averages almost twice Aldo's fantasy points (DraftKings system), which makes sense as Yan has won every single fight he's ben part of.

The only fights Aldo has won since 2017 were early stoppages (two KOs), which boosted his scores by a lot. Without those bonus points, Aldo is very much a middling fantasy option these days. Yan has three KOs and three decision wins to his name and it's not that he's overly dependant on bonus points to rack up big fantasy tallies. That, paired with the great ground game he has makes him a truly great fantasy pickup on any UFC main card's lineup.

 

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Prediction

While still young for the world of MMA, Aldo is (sadly) starting to become a little bit of an afterthought after his late run of results in the promotion. Nobody can throw too much shade at him given the names he's faced lately, but the truth is that his record since 2017 is rather bad at just 2-4 and he definitely needs to get some wins as soon as he can if he doesn't want to fade entirely.

Yan is on the total opposite trend, having won every fight (six in a row, that is) he's signed for and contending for his first title since his debut. Yan is on a terrific ascendant path, he's never dropped below the 80-fantasy-point line and he should be a lock to get the win here either early or via decision. This will be the first time he faces a five-round fight but he shouldn't have conditioning problems at all and the two extra rounds should bulk his fantasy score even more. The clear favorite and core play to put in every lineup you build for UFC 251.

More MMA Analysis

More DFS Analysis & Lineup Picks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Patrick Cantlay30 mins ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López35 mins ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland38 mins ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia44 mins ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti54 mins ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL57 mins ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette1 hour ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus1 hour ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants1 hour ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears1 hour ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Aaron Civale1 hour ago

Plays Catch On Tuesday
Masataka Yoshida2 hours ago

Resumes Swinging
Sam Ehlinger2 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Liam Hendriks2 hours ago

Resumes Throwing
Guerschon Yabusele2 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Kutter Crawford2 hours ago

Hasn't Faced Hitters
Karl-Anthony Towns2 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals2 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Lucas Giolito2 hours ago

To Make A Rehab Start On Wednesday
Jevon Carter2 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry2 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Brayan Bello2 hours ago

To Make Rehab Start On Tuesday
Julian Phillips2 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Alexis Díaz2 hours ago

Alexis Diaz Throws Live BP On Tuesday
Jalen Smith2 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Max Scherzer2 hours ago

Day-To-Day After Getting Cortisone Shot
Lonzo Ball2 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Freddie Freeman2 hours ago

Likely Out Until Friday
Kevin Huerter2 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Willson Contreras3 hours ago

Taking First Day Off
Josh Giddey3 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton3 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale3 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant3 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal3 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II3 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons3 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young3 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser3 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo3 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud3 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Edouard Julien3 hours ago

Making First Start Of The Season
Isaiah Stewart3 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba3 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga3 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry3 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Dylan Crews3 hours ago

Not Starting Against Blue Jays
Jaylen Brown4 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault4 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.4 hours ago

Sitting Out In New York
Alex Laferriere4 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Paul Goldschmidt4 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff Again
Jonathan Aranda4 hours ago

Christopher Morel Sitting Against Pirates
Luke Schenn4 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Jose Siri4 hours ago

Making Another Start In Center Field
Dante Fabbro4 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Brett Baty4 hours ago

Sitting Against A Right-Hander
Kyle Higashioka4 hours ago

Back In The Lineup, Jonah Heim Takes A Seat
Detroit Lions6 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans6 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders7 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear7 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins7 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL7 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä7 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway7 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal7 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy7 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Geno Smith7 hours ago

Raiders Working On Extension With Geno Smith
Chris Godwin8 hours ago

Buccaneers Optimistic Chris Godwin Will Be Ready For Week 1
Josh Norris8 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams8 hours ago

Coleman Shelton Expected To Start Again In 2025
Brady Tkachuk8 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams8 hours ago

Rams Open To Drafting A Quarterback
Kyren Williams8 hours ago

Rams To Discuss Long-Term Deal With Kyren Williams
Aaron Rodgers8 hours ago

Signs "Pointing" Toward Aaron Rodgers Signing With Steelers
Brock Purdy8 hours ago

49ers Optimistic On Getting Extension Done With Brock Purdy
Jordan Spieth9 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp10 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim10 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood10 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau10 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole10 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith14 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment14 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka14 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov14 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov14 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes14 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens23 hours ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA23 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki1 day ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano1 day ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry2 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]