Breaking Down UFC Fight Island - UFC 251: Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo

Antonio looks at the title fight between Petr Yan and Jose Aldo that will take place in UFC 251 and breaks down the numbers of both fighters previewing the upcoming bout.

It's almost here, folks. We're just days away of making Fight Island a reality. I know you are disappointed about the fact that we're not going to watch athletes fight inside an octagon placed in the middle of a sandy beach, but what we're about to witness will make it to history books. The UFC, making up for the time lost due to the COVID pandemic, will be running four cards in a span of two weeks and put four titles up for grabs. That, simply put, is going to be insane.

Yas Island will be the place and starting July 11 we'll be kicking things off with UFC 251 and three titles on the line (welterweight, featherweight, and bantamweight) to then follow those three with another one at the flyweight class a week later. The names involved in those fights can't be bigger: from Kamaru Usman to Max Holloway with a ton of legends in the middle (Jose Aldo, Joseph Benavidez, etc...).

In this series of articles, I'll break down the four title bouts about to happen during the next weeks over Fight Island. I will present to you the contestants, look at their past stats, and explore some fantasy numbers to get you ready for fight time. Don't forget to check out all of our MMA Content here at RotoBaller, and give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana!

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Tale of the Tape

This past May, now-retired Henry Cejudo defeated Dominick Cruz to retain his bantamweight belt. Just minutes after the fight ended, he announced his farewell, leaving the title vacant. With Aljamain Sterling already booked for a bout a month later, the fight between Petr Yan and Jose Aldo was the next-best thing the UFC could do to crown a new bantamweight champ. And here we are.

The contrast between the most basic of information from these two can't be greater. Jose Aldo is a staple in the mixed martial arts world. He's been fighting forever, yet he's only 33 years old and is now testing the bantamweight waters after dominating the featherweight division for the better part of the last decade. Petr Yan is a much less experienced pro fighter, although he's been a true hurricane and knows no defeat. Both fighters are pretty close when it comes to the builds they bring to the table, with age being the only differentiating factor between them.

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Fighting History

Experience is the ultimate separator between these two. I have only plotted (and will be using data) from fights to be held from 2017 on, as Petr Yan did not even debut in the UFC until 2018.

When Aldo joined the promotion back in 2010, he already snatched the featherweight title in his first fight and didn't relinquish it until December 2015 after defending the belt successfully seven times in a row. From his defeat to Conor McGregor on, though, he's 3-5 in his eight last fights, including a 2-4 run since 2017. He dropped his debut in the bantamweight division versus Marlon Moraes this past December, and he's at a breaking point where he better rebound with a win sooner rather than later to preserve his legacy and extend his future.

Petr Yan's six UFC fights couldn't have gone better for the Russian. He stomped Teruto Ishihara in his debut with a first-round KO, went on to knock out two more fighters in the other five bouts, and won the three remaining via decision. Yan knows no defeat and counts his fights by wins, and he's more than deserving at a shot at the vacant title, which wouldn't look out of place at all around his waist.

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Significant Strikes

The Russian youngin' is favored on the striking side of things. Yan's 12.0 SS per minute is quite high and outpaces Aldo's outcome by almost 2.5 strikes per 60 seconds. Most importantly, though, is the fact that Yan lands those SS at a higher rate (50.2%) than Aldo does these days (46%), which is even more crucial considering Yan does it on a bigger volume.

When it comes to defending themselves from being hit, Aldo has had a much tougher life on that side of the game than Yan (in contrast with what happens with takedown-defense, as we'll see later). Rivals attack Aldo on a much greater volume than they do Yan via strikes, with almost a five-SS difference between both fighters. Again, Yan outperforms Aldo here with a much better striking defense with which he only allows foes to land 33.0% of the SS they throw his way compared to Aldo's 45% success rate allowed to rivals.

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Takedowns

With the exception of two fights going all the way back to 2011, Aldo has never attempted more than two takedowns in his career. He's topped one just twice in two fights since 2017, and he didn't land any of those two attempts. You can see the contrast with Yan's approach to the ground game.

Petr Yan attempts 0.2 takedowns per minute or one per completed round at least. That's why he's gone for at least a couple of takedowns in his last five fights and an average of 4.6 attempts per fight in that same span. Not only that, but his success rate is quite high at 49.7%, virtually landing half of the attempts he launches. That might not end in a real-life submission (Yan has never won that way) but it's a true contest-winning approach in fantasy terms.

As I said in the section above about striking, the defensive mindset that these two fighters have to go with every night is quite different. While Aldo is always able to keep rivals from even attempting to take him down, Yan faces almost 0.4 takedown attempts per minute. That doesn't put him in too much danger, though, as he's only allowed 6.5% of those attempts (3-for-24) to actually land in his six UFC fights, and the most he allowed in a single fight were two by John Dodson.

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Fantasy Upside

Given that Aldo hasn't been part of title fights as of late, and that the last two he was involved with finished inside the third round (two KOs versus Max Holloway in 2017), both fighters can be measured on the same terms when it comes to time spent inside the octagon, which interestingly is the same for both. The 11.5 minutes per fight might be equal, but the outcomes are absolutely distant: Yan averages almost twice Aldo's fantasy points (DraftKings system), which makes sense as Yan has won every single fight he's ben part of.

The only fights Aldo has won since 2017 were early stoppages (two KOs), which boosted his scores by a lot. Without those bonus points, Aldo is very much a middling fantasy option these days. Yan has three KOs and three decision wins to his name and it's not that he's overly dependant on bonus points to rack up big fantasy tallies. That, paired with the great ground game he has makes him a truly great fantasy pickup on any UFC main card's lineup.

Bantamweight - Yan vs. Aldo: Prediction

While still young for the world of MMA, Aldo is (sadly) starting to become a little bit of an afterthought after his late run of results in the promotion. Nobody can throw too much shade at him given the names he's faced lately, but the truth is that his record since 2017 is rather bad at just 2-4 and he definitely needs to get some wins as soon as he can if he doesn't want to fade entirely.

Yan is on the total opposite trend, having won every fight (six in a row, that is) he's signed for and contending for his first title since his debut. Yan is on a terrific ascendant path, he's never dropped below the 80-fantasy-point line and he should be a lock to get the win here either early or via decision. This will be the first time he faces a five-round fight but he shouldn't have conditioning problems at all and the two extra rounds should bulk his fantasy score even more. The clear favorite and core play to put in every lineup you build for UFC 251.

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