X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Breaking $100: RSM Classic - PGA Betting Picks

Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) provides free PGA betting picks for the RSM Classsic. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.

Another week, another favorite hoists a trophy, as Tony Finau bulldozed the field at the Houston Open, winning by four strokes while coasting into the clubhouse on Sunday. Finau has now won three times in seven starts and will be teeing it up at the RSM Classic this week, at odds three times shorter than six days ago. He is rightfully in single bullet range, but at a putting contest, on a course that has water hazards lurking everywhere, that is not a bullet we are willing to bite, even though he had back-to-back victories last season. (Edit: He has since withdrawn from the event.)

Scottie Scheffler finished T9 while losing two strokes putting, 10 strokes less than fearless Finau in that department. The former World No. 1 has his work cut out for him on the greens if he looks to return back to the top of the rankings. He matched Tony tee-to-green, but the majority of those strokes came from around the green, where Finau had limited opportunity to gain strokes, hitting 79% of his greens in regulation. We took a gamble on Scheffler's "putting resurgence" in Mayakoba and whiffed. On to the RSM Classic we go!

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SMASH. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

Sea Island Golf Club: Par: 70, Yardage: 7,004 Greens: Bermuda

With past winners reaching-19 under par the last five years, we have dialed up the birdie or better percentage as we have done for most fall events. The large greens and relatively short holes have putting correlating to success more than approach, which is hardly ever the case, as approach is typically king. We have ramped up Bermuda putting over the last 50 rounds, putting success from 15 feet and in, as well as recent putting in the 2023 season. We will see how this goes as putting can be really tough to predict.

 

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. This week we have six outrights that are all at 40-1 or longer.

Joel Dahmen ($3.08 @ +4000)

The once happy go lucky PGA Tour professional who was content with just owning a tour card, is now one of the 100 best players in the world (No. 96), courtesy of four top-20 finishes in his last five tournaments, with his two most recent starts placing him inside the top-10. Dahmen has put together an incredibly consistent ball-striking resume of late, losing strokes on approach only once in the 12 ShotLink rounds over that five-event stretch, gaining +1.18 strokes per round (10th).

Dahmen has always driven the ball well and driven himself nuts on the green, at a level of consistency that could be deemed as Dahmen's First Law. He has gained the 18th-most strokes off the tee (+0.46 per round) while "Ying and Yanging" his way to the 18th-worst putting metrics in the field. However, at a short course that demands accuracy, Dahmen should gain more than his usual half a stroke off the tee, as he is the nineth most accurate driver of the ball. He barely lost strokes putting last week and if he can gain a few fractions on the greens this week, the rest of his game is champion material.

Andrew Putnam ($3.08 @ +4000)

Andrew Putnam has averaged -0.5 strokes off the tee in his 20 rounds this season, largely due to his 278-yard driving distance which is 20 yards shorter than tour average. This is Putnam's only deficiency in his game, which is promising, as his lack of distance will be significantly nullified here, while his driving accuracy (30th) that is 10% better than tour average should be emphasized and will catalyze his path to victory. He should gain off the tee this week, for the first time this season.

The rest of his game could star as "Herbie, the Love Bug", capable of steering itself and winning the championship when the moment allows. That moment is now, as his +0.71 strokes gained on approach (22nd) over the last 12 rounds will be on full display from the fairway this week, while his +0.76 strokes gained putting (20th) will have repeated opportunities to roll in the birdie putts needed to get close to -20 and win the RSM Classic. Shoot em straight and keep Putnam in, Andrew!

Brendon Todd ($2.05 @ +6000)

Brendon Todd ranks fourth in both driving accuracy and putting on Bermuda. He has also gained the 14th-most strokes on approach this season and heads to a venue that rewarded this kind of skill set with a fourth-place finish in 2019. Todd has two top-10s in his five most recent starts and is priced at 60-1 while ranking fourth in our model. That is all you need to know about Todd's game, and with four fourths already mentioned in his write-up, one can only assume a "four-shadowed" victory is imminent.

Harris English ($2.46 @ +5000)

After winning twice in 2021, a hip injury kept Harris English from continuing to play the kind of golf that afforded the Georgia-native a spot on the Ryder Cup team. His game is on the precipice of bouncing back, having made five cuts in his six starts this season. The strength of his game has always been his putter, which will be most important this week. He has hit 68% of his fairways in the last 12 rounds and if his approach play can provide some support, English may be crowned the King of Sea Island.

Justin Lower ($1.03 @ +12000)

Justin Lower has gained the 14th-most total strokes in this field over his 22 rounds this season and has finishes of T4 and T8 yet he is priced at 120-1. He has averaged half a stroke on the greens and should be able to lean on his accuracy off the tee without worrying about his lack of distance. His irons are averaging +0.64 strokes in 12 of 14 rounds he has played, ignoring two poor rounds earlier in the season. At this price tag, with this kind of skill set and recent form, Justin is going lower than everybody this week!

Brian Gay ($0.31 @ +40000)

As a member of the Champions Tour, where he has three top-10 finishes in his last five starts, Brian Gay heads back to Sea Island where he finished third in 2017. His game seems to have found a seasoned stride that suits shorter, accuracy-intensive golf courses where a putter can do most of the damage. His T11 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship is enough to go back to him at 400-1, having to only lay down 31 cents to return $111. His game seems to be in sync and we want it that way!

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!

 

Placings

The model kicked out far too many placement bets again, largely due to FanDuel tossing some ridiculously big numbers at us. We eliminated most of the bets with the shortest odds and could land up having a monster week if a few of the longer bets cash this week.

Last week we profited $20.50 on placings:

  • Taylor Montgomery (T20: $10 @ +125 on FanDuel): -$10
  • Martin Laird (T40: $10 @ +175 on FanDuel): $17.50
  • James Hahn (T40: $10 @ +230 on FanDuel): $23
  • Austin Smotherman (T40: $10 @ +230 on FanDuel): -$10

This week:

  • Taylor Montgomery (T20: $19 @ +170 on FanDuel)
  • Tom Hoge (T20: $9 @ +155 on FanDuel)
  • Brendon Todd (T20: $9 @ +275 on DraftKings)
  • Matt Kuchar (T20: $9 @ +220 on DraftKings)
  • Adam Long (T20: $9 @ +490 on FanDuel)
  • John Huh (T40: $9 @ +290 on FanDuel)
  • Justin Lower (T40: $9 @ +200 on FanDuel)
  • Ryan Armour (T40: $9 @ +230 on FanDuel)

Matchups

I love these bets so much because outside of the juice you pay on the betting odds, you are not really betting against the book, but instead, betting against the opponent in the matchup, making this the safest of golf bets, in my opinion.

Let me explain why this is such a safe and profitable bet. If you place a T20 bet and that player withdraws, you lose. Similarly, if you place a matchup bet and he withdraws, you lose. BUT, if you place a matchup bet and your opponent withdraws, YOU WIN! The fairest of golf betting playing fields. It also provides you with opportunities to fade players you feel are overpriced, by placing bets against them in matchups with a player we think has a significant edge over "Mr. Overrated."

Last week: Aaron Wise over Russell Henley (-116 on FanDuel) $10 - Henley missed the cut after losing over three strokes putting, while wise coasted to a T22 losing strokes off the tee for the first time since March.

This week: Justin Rose o Patrick Rodgers ($11 @ -110 on DraftKings)

The model likes Rose's accuracy off the tee and superior putting, while his poor around the green game should get a bit of rest at a course with bigger greens. Most of Rodger's strokes gained off the tee come from his distance, which will be nullified here, while his putter has been a little rebellious of late.

 

A Look Into The Future

With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.

The Players

Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)

After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.

The Masters

Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)

If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.

His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.

 

The Farewell Fiver

 (T20: Zach Johnson $5 @ +850 on FanDuel)

The US Ryder Cup captain has finished inside the top-20 in four of his last five starts at the RSM. We get +850 for him to do that for a fifth time in six starts, which seems like a gross misprice which we are hoping to make buckets of cash off of.

That should get us to $100 worth of bets for the week, making this the first authentic Breaking $100 article of the fall swing, which ends this week. Let's end it with a bang!

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nico Collins

Clears Concussion Protocol, Says he's "Ready to Play"
Brice Sensabaugh

Fourth-Year Option Picked Up on Thursday
Keyonte George

Fourth-Year Option Picked Up
Brandin Podziemski

Fourth-Year Option Exercised
Isaiah Joe

Will Be Available Thursday Against the Wizards
Mitchell Robinson

Practices Fully Thursday; Will Be a Game-Time Decision Friday
Moses Moody

Will Be Available vs. the Bucks
Jalen Suggs

Will Not Play Thursday
Franz Wagner

Questionable vs. the Hornets on Thursday
Nikola Topić

Nikola Topic Battling Testicular Cancer
Jared McCain

Has His Option Exercised for Next Season
Bryce Miller

Not Expected to Need Elbow Surgery
Washington Nationals

Nationals Finalizing a Deal to Hire Blake Butera as Next Manager
Kyler Murray

Cardinals Preparing to Start Kyler Murray in Week 9
Nico Collins

Expected to Clear the Concussion Protocol
Brandon Miller

Remains Sidelined Thursday
Norman Powell

Considered Doubtful for Thursday
Chet Holmgren

Remains Out Thursday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Probable for Meeting With Warriors
Trae Young

Scheduled for MRI on Thursday
CFB

Arch Manning Listed as Questionable for Vanderbilt Matchup
CFB

Arion Carter Listed as Questionable Ahead of Oklahoma Matchup
Anthony Davis

Exits Early Wednesday With Leg Problem
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Expected to Return in "Next Couple of Games"
LeBron James

Targeting Mid-November Return
Zach Werenski

Enjoys Second Consecutive Multi-Point Night
Charlie Coyle

Sets Up Four Goals Wednesday
John Tavares

Joins 500-Goal Club
Zach Hyman

Will Not Return This Week
Robert Thomas

Doubtful for Thursday
Brad Marchand

on Track to Return Saturday
Minnesota Twins

Twins Name Derek Shelton as Their New Manager
Santi Aldama

Available Versus Phoenix
Jalen Green

Ruled Out Against Grizzlies
Keon Ellis

Available Versus Bulls
Samuel Ersson

Questionable for Thursday
Jordan Greenway

Set for Season Debut Thursday
Conor Garland

Ruled Out for Thursday
Quinn Hughes

to Remain Out Thursday
Logan Cooley

Signs $80 Million Deal With Mammoth
Erik Gudbranson

Remains Out Wednesday
William Nylander

Won't Play on Wednesday
Lamar Jackson

Removed From Injury Report, Will Return on Thursday
Tyler Shough

to Start at QB the Rest of the Season
Terry McLaurin

Re-Injures Quad, Out for Week 9
Brock Bowers

Practicing in Full, "Looking Great"
Myles Garrett

"No Chance" Myles Garrett Gets Traded
Rico Dowdle

to Become Panthers Featured Back in Week 9?
Aidan Hutchinson

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Lions
Joe Flacco

Week 9 Status in Doubt With AC Joint Sprain
Cam Skattebo

Facing 4-6-Month Recovery Timetable
CFB

Jordyn Tyson Questionable for Iowa State Matchup with Hamstring Injury
Jake Oettinger

Collects First Shutout of the Season
Chuba Hubbard

Panthers Don't Want To Move Chuba Hubbard
Connor Bedard

Produces First Career Hat Trick
Victor Olofsson

Has Career Night With Five Points
Thomas Harley

Signs Eight-Year Extension With Stars
Shayne Gostisbehere

Suffers New Injury Tuesday
Conor Garland

Joins Canucks' Growing Injury List
Mikael Granlund

to Miss 2-3 Weeks
Adam Gaudette

Could Miss Time
George Springer

Not in the Lineup for Game 4 of World Series
Malik Nabers

Should be Ready for Start of Next Season
Lamar Jackson

Says he's "Ready to Go Now"
Isiah Pacheco

Week-to-Week With MCL Sprain
Tyler Shough

Named Saints' Starting Quarterback
Kareem Hunt

Scores Twice in Monday Night Win Over Washington
George Springer

Pulled Early in Game 3 With Side Injury
Terry McLaurin

Questionable to Return in Week 8 After Aggravating Quad Injury
Baltimore Orioles

Orioles Finalizing Deal to Hire Craig Albernaz as the Next Manager
William Byron

Dominates at Martinsville and Advances to the Championship Round
Kyle Larson

Advances to the Championship Round After Top-Five Finish
Ryan Blaney

Falls Short of the Victory and Title Contention at Martinsville
Chase Elliott

Eliminated From 2025 Title Contention Despite Strong Martinsville Run
Lamar Jackson

Ravens Expect Lamar Jackson to Play on Thursday Night
Michael Carter

Cardinals Release Michael Carter on Monday
CFB

Behren Morton Will Start Against Kansas State
CFB

Lane Kiffin Says Money Won't Impact his Decision-Making
CFB

Arch Manning in Concussion Protocol, Misses Practice Monday
Christopher Bell

Eliminated From Championship 4 After a Too Conservative Season
Joey Logano

Lack of Championship-Caliber Speed Leads to Elimination
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Last at Martinsville
Denny Hamlin

Don't Think Denny Hamlin's Engine Failure Affects his Championship Prospects
Ciryl Gane

Fight With Tom Aspinall Ends In No-Contest
Ciryl Gane

Tom Aspinall Vs. Ciryl Gane Ends in No-Contest
Virna Jandiroba

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Mackenzie Dern

Wins Vacant Strawweight Title
Mario Bautista

Gets Outclassed
Umar Nurmagomedov

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jailton Almeida

Drops Decision
Alexander Volkov

Wins Split Decision At UFC 321
Azamat Murzakanov

Remains Undefeated
Aleksandar Rakic

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Chris Buescher

Is Chris Buescher A Playable DFS option for Martinsville?
Ryan Preece

is an Intriguing DFS Option For Martinsville
Daniel Suarez

May be Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville This week?
Christopher Bell

Kyle Larson Should Advance to Championship 4
Joey Logano

Don't Expect Joey Logano to Significantly Contend for Championship 4
William Byron

A DFS Must-Start Due to Lap-Leader Points
Ross Chastain

Hail Melon Nostalgia Masks Ross Chastain's Martinsville Mediocrity
Josh Berry

a Top Contender for DFS Place-Differential Points
Brad Keselowski

an Intriguing Martinsville Option
Shane Van Gisbergen

Now Competent on Ovals, but Don't Start Him Here
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well but Probably Won't Have Staying Power
Carson Hocevar

Lack of Finesse Makes Him a Risky Martinsville Pick
Bryce Harper

Phillies Aren't Planning to Trade Bryce Harper

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP