RADIO
The search for back-to-back winners continues. Emiliano Grillo found himself surging up the leaderboard on Sunday but missed a shorty on 16 and then parred the easy 18th hole to miss out on a potential playoff by two shots. He would have joined Keegan Bradley in a playoff, who has been a staple of this article many times in the 2022 season (sad face). Bradley appeared to have lost his groove towards the end of the season, which got us off of him. He said he put in a bunch of work over the break and that is something we need to keep in mind when new seasons begin.
The tour returns from Japan and now heads to South Carolina, where a loaded field of superstars will take part in the CJ Cup. It is a no cut event that includes 78 golfers and 15 of the top 20 world ranked players. There is a possibility, with a Rory McIlroy win and a Scottie Scheffler bottom of the board performance, that we have a new world number one by Sunday. Rory is not going to win, as he is not on our card, and we have the winner in one of our six picks.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Course Breakdown and Key Stats
Congaree Golf Club: Par: 71, Yardage: 7,655, Grass: Bent
The tour has stopped by CGC once, in last 2021's impromptu Palmetto Championship, a week before the U.S. Open. The field was not nearly as star-studded as this week, and we need to remember that when looking into who had success here. The quality of ball strikers playing this week vs last year is chalk and cheese. Regardless, the scrubs that tried one last time to get into a major the following week, still provided us with stats for what we can anticipate from the course.
As you can see below, in 2021 strokes gained off the tee found itself rivaling strokes gained approach, which is typically a clear-cut leader in predicting general success at almost any venue. Distance was valued 20% more relevant here than tour average, while accuracy was also 8% more important once all four rounds were completed. When looking at approach proximities, 125-200 and 250+ yard shots will make up about two thirds of irons/woods hit into greens.
Strokes gained around the greens were also slightly more important and by looking at the course, we can imagine sand saves are a major contributor to that correlation. We will still include a little Bermuda putting in our model. The three par 5s are part of the five easiest holes on the course, with two drivable par 4s providing more scoring opportunities than the 645-yard par 5 4th.
Below are the settings for the model:
Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even.
Max Homa ($3.97 @ +3100 on FanDuel)
Max Homa finds himself on a golf course that should suit his style of play tremendously. He has improved his driving distance and is now gaining the 8th-most strokes off the tee in a field saturated with the worlds very best. He snuck away with a win at the Fortinet and his confidence should be sky-high entering the week. Homa is also 4th in the field when it comes to par 5 scoring and over the last 24 rounds his short game is top-5. Max has shown the propensity to perform best on medium golf courses (average score of top five -10 to -15) which we can anticipate Congaree living up to. The 31 to 1 price tag is delightful, and Max will be looking for one more win before imminent fatherhood.
Shane Lowry ($3.54 @ +3500 on BetRivers)
If the week unfolds the way we anticipate, Shane Lowry has the third best strokes gained on medium courses. When conditions get tough and scrambling becomes essential, we want the best bunker player in the field to be on our card. He is also inside the top 10 for recent and baseline approach play and has enough length to take advantage of the par 5s and drivable par 4s. He ended the season with a putter that was performing like it had been soaked in Guiness all year, but after a break we can expect the flatstick to kick its late-season hangover and get us buzzed with a hard-fought victory in South Carolina.
Scott Stallings ($1.40 @ +9000 on DraftKings)
He found himself on the card last week and disappointed us in Japan with a poor round early in the event. Outside of two events, Stallings' last few months have been nothing short of excellent. We get a delicious 90-1 price tag at a course that he could ball strike to death if he finds the form he had only a few weeks ago. As is the case with a few other players on our card from Japan, there is a chance jet lag could kill any hopes of victory, but at these odds we are going to continue watering the seeds of success until we have the best lawn in town.
Sepp Straka ($2.59 @ +10000 on BetRivers)
In Sepp Straka's last five starts he has finished 2nd, T28, T7, 2nd T45. Both his second-place finishes were playoff losses. His approach play seems to have bounced back after an abysmal stretch of missed cuts. A T45 in Japan has Straka in the triple-digits for an outright, which is outright disrespectful, but we will gladly take a chance on a man who has had victory snatched from him in twice in the last few events. Diet Coke should be found in abundance in South Carolina, putting Sepp back in his comfort zone.
Seamus Power ($1.26 @ +10000 on DraftKings)
Another Irishman, at triple the odds, lucks his way onto the card. Seamus has not been striking his irons well at all recently, so let us just get that out the way. However, at 100-1 this golf course suits his "get it done no matter how" mentality. He is 13th in both bogey-avoidance and par 5 scoring, testifying to his ability to just get the ball in the hole. He has played well here before placing T19th at the Palmetto Championship, with his short game going cold over the weekend. A sprinkle of the luck of the Irish and some blue-collar scoring conditions should be all we need to see Power win on tour again.
Rickie Fowler ($1.57 @ +8000 on DraftKings)
Since switching coaches and getting a new caddie on the bag, Rickie has finished T6, MC, T2 in his last three starts. His ball striking seems to be much more consistent, and his overall vibes on the course appear to be back to his confident self from five years ago. Rickie has one of the best touches around the green and is exceptional out of the sand, which should come to his rescue when inevitably finding the beach around a tough Congaree Golf Club. Hopefully Japanese jet lag remains dormant, and the Fowler Volcano erupts in South Carolina!
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Placings
Emiliano Grillo cashes yet another T20 for us and Matthew NeSmith managed to hold on to his T30. Mito lost -8.53 strokes in round two, shooting 77 on Friday (blinks rapidly in disbelief). Straka and Stallings both just never had it in Japan. We landed up losing -$2.50 in the placement market, which is neither here nor there.
- Emiliano Grillo (T20 @ +175 on FanDuel): +$17.50
- Scott Stallings (T20 @ +155 on FanDuel): -$10
- Mito Periera (T20 @ +150 on FanDuel): -$10
- Sepp Straka (T20 @ +160 on FanDuel): -$10
- Matthew NeSmith (T30 @ +100 on FanDuel): +$10
In another no cut event, we are going with all our outrights again and the lovely folks at BetMGM sportsbook have T20 and T30 markets available, with ties getting paid in full. For a T30 bet, there is a decent chance a handful of people tie, essentially requiring our player to beat roughly half the field, which, in theory, seems very reasonable with a few Korean players filling up the bottom of the odds board. Three T20s and three T30s.
Max Homa (T20: $11 @ -110 on BetMGm)
Shane Lowry (T20: $10 @ +110 on BetMGM)
Rickie Fowler (T20: $10 @ +175 on BetMGM)
Scott Stallings (T30: $10 @ +100 on BetMGM)
Sepp Straka (T30: $10 @ +100 on BetMGM)
Seamus Power (T30: $10 @ +120 on BetMGM)
Matchups
I love these bets so much because outside of the juice you pay on the betting odds, you are not really betting against the book, but instead, betting against the opponent in the matchup, making this the safest of golf bets, in my opinion.
Let me explain why this is such a safe and profitable bet. If you place a T20 bet and that player withdraws, you lose. Similarly, if you place a matchup bet and he withdraws, you lose. BUT, if you place a matchup bet and your opponent withdraws, YOU WIN! The fairest of golf betting playing fields. It also provides you with opportunities to fade players you feel are overpriced, by placing bets against them in matchups with a player we think has a significant edge over "Mr. Overrated."
(Tom Hoge o Andrew Putnam: $10 @ -120 on DraftKings)
Tom Hoge has a clear edge over Putnam on the ball striking front, and although he does not have elite length, he has a sizeable distance advantage over Putnam. They are both playing at a similar level entering the week, with Putnam taking advantage of the shorter courses he has played on recently. Putnam's short game is going to have to make up for his lack of ball striking, and over four rounds, Hoge should have a much easier path to success here. Hoge's baseline power ranking has him +1.27 more than Putnam which gives us the green light to pull the trigger at -120.
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
The Players
Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.
The Masters
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
(T10: $5 @ +100 on BetMGM)
Scottie Scheffler leads the field in ball striking over the last 24 rounds. He is top 5 in that category when it comes to his baseline too. After some time off, we can expect Scheffler's putter and overall short game to return to the overall level that got him to world number one. Even if it doesn't, he could still ball strike his way to a top-10 finish.
We are still not spending our entire bankroll ($100 per week) until we find some level of comfort with the model in full field events and bigger KFT sample sizes.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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