RADIO
After having an outright in final-round contention three weeks in a row, Collin Morikawa's T68 gifted our chore lists and wives with some much-needed weekend attention. Morikawa had no short-game touch at all, wasting another impressive ball-striking week from the world #2. We had a small loss on the week, but remain profitable over the course of the article which is always nice to write. Keeping track of your bets is a great way to brush off losing weeks, as you are reminded that over the long run, there is a reason to smile.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose.
Course Breakdown and Key Stats
Austin Country Club, Par: 71, Yardage: 7,108, Greens: Bermuda, Designer: Pete Dye
The tour has vacated Florida and is headed to Austin Country Club in Texas. When it comes to match play, the model has no answer for why Ian Poulter decides to play to a polarizing potential that is only realized when he has one other golfer to beat. Kevin Kisner, Alex Noren, and Billy Horschel are not your typical brazen ball-strikers, but each has impressive match play win percentages. All of these "short-game specialists" have won more than 67% of their 44 combined matchplay starts, despite ranking well below average on approach in my model ('21 and '22 data).
With the model struggling to rationalize Poulter's ego, the maniac will be taking over the reins this week. If you are wondering who the maniac is, follow me @TheModelManiac on Twitter. With the model taking a back seat this week, we will be channeling our inner Harvey Specter by "playing the man, and not the odds". A seasoned matchplay record at Austin Country Club will be one of the most important key stats with the usual stats now assuming a supporting role.
If we like someone with poor matchplay history, a golfer's strokes gained on approach is a staple of any decision we make on Breaking $100. Strokes gained putting on Bermuda greens and birdie or better percentage will also be essential stats for golfers who have yet to mold a masterful matchplay record. Two secondary stats, which are important but carry less weighting in the model, are SG: OTT and Par 5 scoring.
In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:
- Matchplay record at Austin CC (W-L-D, win %)
- Strokes gained on approach (SG: APP)
- Strokes gained putting on Bermuda (SG: P)
- Birdie or better percentage (BoB%)
- Strokes gained off the tee (SG: OTT)
- Par 5 scoring
Different Betting Strategy This Week
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events, in order to break even. We hit a winner three weeks into our first eight-week window, leaving us 12 events to hit another winner.
Matchplay can be extremely unpredictable, so we are going to enter as many horses into the race as possible. To take advantage of the bracket structure, we have two outrights from each quadrant/quarter of the bracket. The two golfers in each quadrant will NOT face each other if they both advance from their group to the "Sweet 16". We have chosen outrights in such a way that there is a best-case scenario where all eight guys make it to the "Elite 8". We want to avoid our outrights facing each other for as long as possible, so bear this in mind when making bets and lineups this week.
From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 on outrights to net $110 or more. Instead of placings, we will be betting $10 on "group winner" (GW) for all eight outrights. We would break even on our investment if two of our eight guys win their group.
Max Homa
(Outright $2 @ +6000, Group Win $10 @ +230 DK)
Max Homa at 60-1 seems like a great price for a golfer who is a proven winner on tour. Homa has top-20s in his last four starts, showing resilience at The Players as he battled through all the elements that ravished his unlucky wave of tee times to finish T13. Homa ranks in the top-10 on tour in SG: APP over his last 20 rounds. His irons are becoming a definite strength of his game which he will need to lean on if he looks to advance through all seven matches. Homa has also gained distance off the tee lately, with SG: OTT joining his irons as a perennial-gainer.
Homa's last two starts have resulted in season-best SG: APP numbers, but both events were crippled by his first two negative putting performances since November of 2021. He maximizes his opportunities on longer holes, ranking fifth in Par-5 scoring, which also helps him sit 25th on tour this year in BoB%.
Homa will have to beat Dustin Johnson, Matthew Wolff, and Mackenzie Hughes to get out of his group. On paper, our only concern is DJ, who has found some inconsistent form of late. Max is a scrappy golfer, who has now added precise iron play to his game, hopefully making him a matchplay nightmare.
- Matchplay record (2-1-0, 67%)
- SG: APP/L20: #24/9
- SG: P: #14
- BoB%: #23
- SG: OTT: #33
- Par 5 scoring: #5
Kevin Kisner
($1.90 @ +6600, GW +333 on BetMGM)
Kevin Kisner is in a group with Justin Thomas, Marc Leishman, and Luke List. Kisner is the most accurate driver in his group and is easily the best putter. Kisner has 16 wins at Austin CC, which is one more than JT (9) and Leishman (6) have combined. The model has Kisner as the worst-ranked golfer in the group, but he has somehow won 73% of his 23 career matches here.
Other than his fourth-ranked putting, Kisner does not bring much to the table statistically. However, he is a fierce competitor who can steal a hole with a putt from anywhere on or off the green. His biggest concern to escape his group is Justin Thomas, who Kisner beat in match play last year. With his head-to-head history, +333 appears to be a very nice number on Kisner to win his group.
- Matchplay record (16-6-1, 73%)
- SG: APP: #61
- SG: P: #4
- BoB%: #50
- SG: OTT: #58
- Par 5 scoring: #53
Ian Poulter
($1.35 @ +9000, GW $10 @ +450 BetMGM )
Ian Poulter is probably known best for his matchplay prowess. He has nine wins in his 12 matches at Austin CC and has never lost a Ryder Cup singles match in seven appearances (6-0-1). Poulter's group contains Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tommy Fleetwood who have all been playing really inspired golf recently. However, we need to remember that we are getting Poulter at 90-1, in a format he specializes in.
Poulter's recent form mirrors what we can expect from him this week with inconsistent iron play providing ample opportunity to win holes courtesy of his electric short game. Poulter +450 to win his group is the highest available odds for any player to win their respective group, which makes us feel like we have a really good number on the match-play legend.
- Matchplay record (9-3-0, 75%)
- SG: APP: #60
- SG: P: #10
- BoB%: #54
- SG: OTT: #56
- Par 5 scoring: #55
Alex Noren
($2 @ +6000, GW $10 @ +300 BetMGM)
In 14 matches at Austin CC Alex Noren has won 11, making his addition to the outright card very easy at 60-1. Noren will have to beat Louis Oosthuizen, Paul Casey, and Corey Conners to survive his group. He finished T12, T5, and T6 in three of his last five events by leaning on his putter and a revived approach game. These are two areas of golf that provide the most opportunity to go extremely low regardless of how the rest of your game is performing. One great approach to gimmie or made 30-foot putt can result in a birdie, where a great drive does not necessarily mean a birdie is a certainty.
Noren +300 to win his group is fair, as Casey and Oosthuizen both have winning match play records as well as impressive recent form leading into the match play. However, if Noren can integrate his recent form into his match play mastery he will be very tough to beat this weak.
- Matchplay record (11-3-0, 79%)
- SG: APP: #60
- SG: P: #10
- BoB%: #54
- SG: OTT: #56
- Par 5 scoring: #55
Brian Harman
($2 @ +6000, GW $10 @ +300 BetMGM)
Brian Harman is the 13th best putter in the field, which is one of the reasons for his appearance on the outright card. He is very accurate off the tee, which can be an important element in matchplay. His irons have gained significantly in four of his last six starts. As a short hitter of the ball, Harman will usually be the first person to hit his approach shot, and when it is a good one it will put pressure on his opponents. In match play, this is an advantage of hitting it short and straight off the tee, as long as your irons do the rest.
Harman will have to beat Webb Simpson, Abraham Ancer, and Bubba Watson to exit his group. All three opponents enter the week with far less consistency than they would like. This entire group played in the Valspar last week, with Harman finishing T5, Simpson T48, and the other two missing the cut. If his recent improvements with irons continue to spill into matchplay, his Cadillac-sized flat stick could see him making a lot of putts to advance further than most expect.
- Matchplay record (5-3-1, 63%)
- SG: APP: #51
- SG: P: #13
- BoB%: #47
- SG: OTT: #36
- Par 5 scoring: #30
Cameron Young
($1.20 @ +10000, GW $10 @ +350 BetMGM)
Cameron Young is one of the most explosive players on tour. He has divine distance off the tee, complemented by a putter that can be a difference-maker this week. Young should dominate Par 5s with his length, but his around the green game has turned many potential birdies into pars. Regardless of his poor chipping, when Young affords himself a birdie opportunity he converts it 26.7% of the time, which is the ninth-best BoB% on tour. As we discussed in the intro, great putters tend to succeed at matchplay if they can embrace the pressure.
Young will have an all-you-can-eat buffet for his first taste of PGA Tour matchplay, with Ryder Cup stalwarts Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed in his group. Sebastian Munoz will be trying his best not to relive last year's nightmare, losing all three of his matches, one of which was to Rahm, who is in his group again. Young has shown he has the upside to beat anyone on a random day, and with Rahm struggling lately, it may be less random than we imagine.
- Matchplay record: First time
- SG: APP: #53
- SG: P: #23
- BoB%: #4
- SG: OTT: #4
- Par 5 scoring: #52
Cameron Tringale
($1 @ +12500, GW $10 @ +330 BetMGM )
Cameron Tringale has the best overall short game in his group of Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, and Sepp Straka. The entire group has a total of seven career matches including two wins. Although Hovland and Zalatoris have Tringale beat on the ball-striking front, he has their number when it comes to chipping and putting. Tringale has suffered from blowup holes lately, which is not that big of a deal in matchplay, as an opponent's birdie goes one up on a par the same as it does a double bogey.
Tringale is the 22nd best approach player in the field, which helps nullify the advantage Hovland and Zalatoris would typically have over most of their opponents. His recent form has been rather disappointing, but he has shown weeks of high-upside amidst missed cuts. If Tringale can get hot on and around the greens, he has a skill set that can be very productive in matchplay.
- Matchplay record: First time
- SG: APP: #22
- SG: P: #41
- BoB%: #22
- SG: OTT: #62
- Par 5 scoring: #38
Seamus Power
($1.55 @ +8500, GW $10 @ +350)
Seamus made the cut at The Players and finished T35 to cash our T40. We had missed on Seamus the previous few weeks, but he found enough of his game to get it done for us. If he can start gaining with his irons again, the rest of his game is capable of making Seamus a tough matchup. Even with three missed cuts prior to The Players, he has played well enough this season to sit inside the top-10 in bogey avoidance this week. Power scores well on Par 5s and ranks 20th in BoB%, which makes him a dangerous match-play opponent, as he limits mistakes and capitalizes on opportunities.
Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, and Keith Mitchell are going to make winning his group quite challenging, but Seamus has the ability to go toe-to-toe with any of his three opponents and emerge victoriously. Hopefully, his finish at The Players provides him with the confidence to play like he during his run of five straight T20s that ended just over a month ago.
- Matchplay record: First time
- SG: APP: #22
- SG: P: #41
- BoB%: #22
- SG: OTT: #62
- Par 5 scoring: #38
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The Farewell Fiver
Xander Schauffele (Group Winner: $5 @ +175 on DK, +150 BetMGM)
Xander Schauffele has been playing really great golf for a while and is now in a group with three golfers who have not been playing at Xander's level at all. Anything can happen in golf, but if Xander brings his current game to each match, Tony Finau, Lucas Herbert, and Takumi Kanaya are going to have to play way above their current baselines to keep it competitive.
Valspar Recap:
- Outright: -$12
- FRL: -$12
- Placings: -$37
- Farewell Fiver: $16
- Total: -$45
- Season Total: +$64.80
After embracing the chaos at The Players, our eight outright picks are looking to once again embrace the chaos of match play this week.
As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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