Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - RBC Canadian Open

For the first time in this series and my personal betting history, we had a bet lose because Hideki Matsuyama decided to play with white-out on his 3-wood and was promptly disqualified for playing with a non-conforming club. Collin Morikawa (T20) had his worst around the green performance of his professional career and Seamus Power (T20) decided to have his second-worst putting performance in his five years as a pro, both losing just shy of four strokes in those departments on route to missed cuts. Jon Rahm led the field in total strokes gained on Sunday to save a T10, only to get chopped three ways adding to the losses. Daniel Berger seemingly never got the memo that it was whacky week on the Breaking $100 card, cashing our only top-20 with a solid T5 performance. The way in which we lost each bet last week was so random that the only way to deal with the disappointment was to laugh... LOL!

Next up, FRLs, where three of our five picks ended atop the leaderboard...in a six-way tie. This is seemingly what we do here now, as we also had two of our guys in an eight-way tie the week before. On the outright side of things, Cam Smith entered Sunday T2 and ended outside the top-10. By now you should expect that there was a much worse performance from an outright who had a chance to make a charge. Enter Cameron Young, who lost 9.79 strokes to the field (84) falling from T12 to T60 in one of the most epic ejections I have ever had an investment in. It has been a wild few weeks and hopefully moving to Canada can restore some order to a truly bizarre two-week stint.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

St Georges G&CC, Par: 70, Yardage: 7,014, Greens: Bent, Designer: Stanley Thompson

The RBC Canadian Open returns to St. Georges after playing there in 2010. The lack of data at this golf course leaves us feeling a little more creative when deciding what metrics to use. The tighter, tree-lined fairways will reward those with control off the tee. Smaller than average greens will place an emphasis on approach and ability to gain strokes around the Bentgrass greens. When looking for a proximity range that garners the majority of shots, 55% of approaches should take place from 150-225 yards, driven by four Par 3s that stretch out over 200 yards.

The three Par 5s are part of seven holes that played under par in 2010, with two of them getting eagled 6.1% and 3.9% of the time. With seven holes playing under par, birdie or better percentage will be our final key factor in choosing our golfers.

Below are the settings for the model:

• We use two seasons of data for all metrics that don't have an L24 (last 24 rounds). "Szn Weight" is comprised of 46% 2022 stats and 54% 2021 stats.
• Golfer power rankings are generated with stats (80%), OWGR (10%), and L24 strokes gained total (10%)
• The combination of stats that make up 80% of a golfer's power ranking

Outrights

It's the week before the third major and we believe that the elite players are hopefully focusing on next week which gives us an opportunity to try our luck with the middle of the odds range. The favorites are all priced through the roof with Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy all +900 which is single bullet range. Cam Smith is 14-1 on FanDuel which is a golfer we are never afraid to pull the trigger on, but we saw what penal rough at memorial did to his game and this course may pose a similar defense (maybe in the 20s).

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.

Tyrrell Hatton ($3.72 @ +3300)

If we can get a golfing performance that is 90% as elite as his tiny tantrums, we are in business with Tyrell Hatton this week. We like a lot about his game and the 33-1 odds allow us to still play another four guys in the 50-1 range. As the last two letters in his name would suggest, Tyrrell ranks 11th in the model largely due to his approach baseline ranking sixth. His proximity numbers improve the further he finds himself from the hole which should put him in good shape on the four Par 3s that are 200+ yards. His driver is historically really reliable, although his recent few rounds do not quite replicate that potency with the big stick.

His third-ranked putter is an area of Hatton's game that can really propel him up the leaderboard when the rest of his game behaves itself. Behaving will be a key word for this bet, as Hatton is a very risky play due to his mental meltdowns that can derail any round at any moment. Tyrrell is one of the better golfers in the field and this course definitely suits his long irons and tidy short game. If he can live up to his 11th-ranked birdie or better percentage and limit any tournament-ending, self-induced implosions, his ceiling performance is absolutely capable of walking away with a Canadian Open victory.

Chris Kirk ($2.43 @ +5000)

I am contemplating copy-pasting a Chris Kirk write-up from one of the many articles we have previously included him in. He made the cut at the Memorial and played some sub-standard golf over the weekend which happened to many talented golfers (see Cameron Young). He has been playing some fantastic golf lately and we will give him a pass for two days of bad golf on a very tough course. His irons have let him down the last two starts and if we can catch him on a bounce-back week on approach, the rest of his game has been steadily plodding along. In fact, his driver has been so steady that he has still yet to lose strokes off the tee in the 2022 season.

Kirk ranks second in strokes gained around the green, as he has only lost in that department in two of his 16 recorded starts which is almost as impressive as his zombie-like driver. Typically a bad putter, Kirk has gained putting in three straight starts and now heads to a course where his steady game could see him climb the leaderboard in a stress-free manner. If his putter continues to gain him strokes and his irons return to form, Kirk's game is built to win a tournament like the RBC Canadian Open.

Patrick Reed ($2.43 @ +5000)

Patrick Reed finds himself in the heart of our card, but not necessarily in our heart of hearts. The controversial professional is no longer playing with any of the clubs his sponsor manufactures, and his game has since seen an uptick in performance over the last three starts. Reed ranks 16th in approach over the last dozen rounds, which is 24 spots higher than his baseline. Although he is ranked in the bottom half of the field off the tee, he is in the top third when it comes to driving accuracy which will help him navigate the wooded wonders of St. Georges.

Reed's tremendous touch on and around the putting surface is the main reason he finds himself on the card, ranking eighth in putting and nineth around the greens, combing to place sixth in the field in general short game. Despite his poor ball striking he has displayed for most of the season, Reed still manages to make birdies at an impressive rate and is no stranger to capitalizing on Par 5s. He may not be ultra-confident in his ball striking right now, but at a course that has some of the smallest greens on tour, Patrick Reed's short game is world class enough to lead him to his maiden victory of the season.

Adam Hadwin ($2.43 @ +5000)

We would not live up to the Canadian stereotype of courteousness and hospitality if we never housed one of their own on our card. Luckily for Adam Hadwin he knows where the Breaking $100 bathrooms are as he has visited this article several times in past editions. His invite was usually in anticipation of his exceptionally steady approach play that resulted in an ACE at the Memorial last week. He seems to have rectified his recent lack of accuracy off the tee last week too, gaining in that area for the first time in four starts, which is much more representative of his long term accuracy.

Hadwin joins the rest of the card with a super tidy short game, ranking 11th in the field courtesy of his putting and around the green play ranking 13th and 10th respectively. With each week that passes on the season, Hadwin's scoring stats should drastically improve as his 2021 season was polluted with poor iron play resulting in any Par 5 scoring or birdie percentages floating belly up at the end of the season. In Canadian terms, 2021 was a single pancake with a hard piece of butter that only melted after the pancake got cold. This week, however, Hadwin can serve up a tall stack of steaming birdie-flavored pancakes, drenched in stripe-show syrup and an abundance of bogey-free butter on route to winning the RBC Canadian Open.

Sebastian Munoz ($2.24 @ +5500)

Sebastian Munoz loves himself a fully-fledged long iron into any green. He ranks 21st in proximity from 150-225 and 16th from the same proximity L24. His ranking on approach is trending wonderfully, ranking 25th (baseline), 17th (L24), and 12th (L12) which means our money on is on a golfer who is striking the ball purer than anything to ever come out of Columbia. Relative to the distance he gains off the tee, Munoz also manages to maintain a very rewarding amount of accuracy off the tee, ranking 16th in strokes gained driving.

He can be a little sloppy around the greens but that appears to have been a 2021 problem. His putter has caught fire since The Players, gaining abundantly in four of his last five starts, which is delightful to see heading to an event that may see a winning score of -15 or lower. Munoz's aggressive playing style is reflected in his birdie-to-bogey ratio, ranking 14th and 71st in each respective area. His driver and long-iron prowess leave his 14th ranked Par 5 scoring as no surprise and should be on full display at St. Georges. If Munoz can continue playing the style of golf that has him 11th in total strokes gained over the last 24 rounds, it will be no shock to see him FlexSeal the deal this week.

Martin Laird ($0.50 @ +25000)

Martin Laird has shown a propensity to put forth ball-striking performances that have him ranked 22nd in that area over the last two-dozen rounds. He has been an incredibly accurate driver of the ball for most of his career, ranking fourth in good drives gained and nineth in accuracy. His best finish this year was a T14 in Phoenix way back in February which was also the last time he gained strokes putting. However, coming off a T37 at the Memorial, maybe Party Marty can pull a rabbit out the hat for us at 250-1 and gain his annual allotment of strokes on the greens this week.

First-Round Leaders

We had five first round leaders on our card last week and three of them landed up in six-way split for the Thursday lead!! I'm still in shock. This is particularly hilarious as we had two first round leader tickets get chopped in eight-ways the prior week at the Charles Schwab. After 11 weeks of no FRL winners, we hit five in two weeks, profiting a monumental total of $74.97, which is 68% of what a single FRL ticket would pay out. Utterly bewildering, but money is money. We smell blood in the water and hopefully we can hunt down the most elusive bet known to Breaking $100.

This week we are rolling out five of our six outrights. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12.28 on five guys to net $110 or more.

Tyrrell Hatton ($3 @ +4000)

If we get a tantric Tyrrell on Thursday, expect birdies to fly and smiles to engulf the cameras of what is very likely to be a featured group involving the most animated golfer on tour. If we get a mad Hatton, we could go down a rabbit hole of emotion that may not seem relatable to an average American.

Chris Kirk ($2.43 @ +5000)

Chris Kirk was one of the FRLs that found himself at in an eight-way tie for the lead at the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course suits his player profile and he typically putts best on Thursdays. Go be brilliant, Chris!

Patrick Reed ($2.43 @ +5000)

With ball striking improving over the last few weeks, hopefully that can provide enough support to one of the most explosive short games on tour. We will take our first round Patty well done, please!

Adam Hadwin ($2.43 @ +5000)

A sizzling display of iron play last week hopefully gushes over the Canadian border and to the top of the Thursday leaderboard.

Sebastian Munoz ($2.24 @ +5500)

One of the most prolific first round scorers on tour should be an auto-play for FRL any time he tees it up. The Thursday Mythical Munoz was first discovered by @pgatout and should get most of the credit for this bet if it were to hit.

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Placings

We have $74 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $69 on one T20 and six T40s. Odds range from +130 to +400 so two or three of the seven guys we bet on need to cash to make a profit, depending on their respective odds. With the field so top-heavy in talent, the T20 market hardly had any respectable plus-money odds for guys at the top of the model. The theme for this part of the card will be more accurate golfers with terrible short game, hoping to ball strike their way to a top-40 at some really tasty odds.

BetMGM is usually our book of choice for most of these bets as their odds are typically the best and they pay ties in full. However, this week we will be utilizing DraftKings and FanDuel for our bets as BetMGM does not do T40 bets.

Doug Ghim (T20: $9 @ +400 on DK, +300 on BetMGM)

This bet is the definition of a number grab, as Doug Ghim only has one top-20 finish in his last seven starts. The field is remarkably weaker this week, and his proximity numbers from 150-225 are fifth in the model over the last two years. His approach baseline ranks nineth and is one of the reasons the Ghim Reaper finds himself ranked 14th in our model. His proficiency off the tee is another catalyzer for Ghim's ascension up the rankings of the model, ranking 26th off the tee and nineth L24. Ghim has typically been tidy around the greens, but that does not seem to be the case of late, which is a bit of a concern. His putting is atrocious, but we will try our luck on a 4-to-1 T20 in a weaker field on a course that really suits his style of play.

Emiliano Grillo (T40: $10 @ +130 on DK)

Ranked two spots lower than Ghim, Emiliano Grillo sits at sweet sixteen because he is second in proximity from 150-225. His recent iron play has been rather uninspiring, but with two of his last four finishes inside the top-40, Grillo can lean on his driver which is the most reliable aspect of his game, ranking nineth off the tee with distance and accuracy drenched all over that number. As we mentioned in the intro to the placing section, Grillo is pedestrian on and around the greens, finding himself in the bottom half of the field in that department. At plus-money odds to ball strike his way around this course for four days, hopefully Grillo finds himself in the top-40 come Sunday.

Vaugh Taylor (T40: $10 @ +320 on FD)

Vaughn Taylor's off the tee ranking comes up just short, because most of his drives come up just short. He is 130th in distance but is top-10 in accuracy and good drives gained, which allows him to lean on his approach play that is 27th in the field. His proximity ranking from 150-225 is seventh and he is also relatively tidy around the greens, until he has to putt. He has not played all that much this year, with two of his best finished taking place outside the country at alternate events, which is basically what 80% of this field is comprised of. Lean on the ball-striking, Vaughn!

Ryan Armour (T40: $10 @ +225 on DK)

Ryan Armour is the most accurate driver in this field, ranking first in good drives gained and accuracy. He is an average iron player, doing his best work from that 150-225 range where he ranks 32nd. His short game is not nearly as rancid as his fellow T40 card mates, but lately, he seems to be headed their way. Hopefully we can get a crisp short-game performance from the man who has two top-40 finishes in his last four starts.

Martin Laird (T40: $10 @ +225 on DK)

Party Marty is part of the bunch of guys who can hit it with the best of them, while stinking it up around the greens. Hopefully he can secure a top-40 for us this week.

Sam Ryder (T40: $10 @ +230 on FD)

Sam Ryder has missed six straight cuts but has gained quite nicely with his irons over the last three events. He lacks distance off the tee, but makes up for that with consistent accuracy. His short game is hit or miss but with Sam ranking inside the top-30 in Par 5 scoring and Birdie or Better percentage, hopefully he can snap his missed cut streak and cash our T40 for us.

Charley Hoffman (T40: $10 @ +360 on FD)

Charley Hoffman has been injured for most of the season but possesses the baseline metrics to dismantle this golf course using power over accuracy, which is a risky approach but at +360, it was tough to pass up. Hoffman is capable of hitting his irons far too well to be priced like this for a T40 bet. He has one of the better short games on the top-40 card and just needs to find a smidge of form for this bet to cash on Sunday.

The Farewell Fiver

Brendon Todd (T10: $5 @ +650 on DK)

Brendon Todd has two top-10 finishes in his last five starts on courses that placed an emphasis on driving accuracy, which is how he attempts to gain strokes off the tee. He is the shortest driver of the ball in the field, but once he finds himself on or near the greens, his best-in-field short game should feel right at home on the smaller greens of St. Georges. We are due for one of these long shot T10s to cash.

PGA Championship Recap:

• Outright: -$13
• FRL: $55.45
• Placings: -$15.83
• Farewell Fiver(s): -$5
• Total: $21.62
• Season Total: $43.13

Despite the chaos that ensued across the card last week, we will take a profit of $21.62 which continues our profitable season. After landing up in multiple splits for first round leaders, hopefully we can land a solo ticket this week and officially get on the board with that bet. It will be a different kind of week, but I can get behind sweating guys down in the top-40 market at 3-1 odds.

As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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