Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - John Deere Classic

Since the last article two perennial bridesmaids managed to win the last two events. Matt Fitzpatrick waltzed down the grassy Country Club aisles on Sunday of the US Open with unabated blissful grins, showing off his braces which I believe are testosterone injectors, as Fitzy stole the show on the back of a powerful ball striking masterclass, hitting 17 of 18 greens. After catching the bouquet at The Country Club, Xander objected any possibility of Sahith Theegala finding eternal happiness with the Travelers Championship, birdying the final hole shortly after Sahith doubled it to clinch his first "real" win in quite some time. An incredible two weeks of golf at a time where the PGA needed its very best product to LIV up to its expectations.

A third week of sensational golf now awaits us as we head to the John Deere Classic where I am eagerly awaiting to make the field if one or two more players withdraw. Until then, we have some ridiculous placement bets to keep us engaged over the weekend, with my favorite bet being a top 40 at +430. It's going to be a birdie fest with 80% of the field debuting in the eyeballs of any average Joe who stumbles upon the golf while vegging on the couch. Although the field may not be star studded or remotely exciting, there is still golf to be played and money to be made.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

TPC Deere Run, Par: 71, Yardage: 7,289, Greens: Bent, Designer: D.A. Weibring & Chris Gray

When I was a sophomore in college we played 54 holes at TPC Deere Run for conference...in April...in 30-degree weather. The first day was 36 holes of windy, sleety conditions that had me stiffer than Jason Day and colder than Patty Ice on a Travelers' Sunday. I shot 82-80 in the blizzard and 85 the following day once the sun came out. I don't understand that logic either. Regardless, it's a beautiful course and I am very jealous that the professionals get to enjoy it in much warmer conditions. I will be at there on Sunday, so come say hi if you are also watching the worst field in golf.

Most holes feature wide fairways with danger dooming any errant drives. There are holes where a booming drive is the obvious choice, while other holes require a more measured strategy. The front nine has a few holes that are a severely sloped, making distance control even more important. The greens are guarded by bunkers and slopes that can leave a short-sided approach, dead.

Three par fives are all reachable with danger lurking around all three greens, often requiring an accurate wedge for your third if a drive misses the fairway in the wrong place. The three Par 5s are part of 12 holes that play under par at Deere Run and as a result the last 12 winners of this event have been around 20 under par, placing a premium on birdie making.

Below are the settings for the model:

• We use two seasons of data for all metrics that don't have an L24 (last 24 rounds). "Szn Weight" is comprised of 60% 2022 stats and 40% 2021 stats.
• Golfer power rankings are generated using Stats (70%), OWGR (10%), Course History (10%) and L24 strokes gained total (10%)
• The combination of stats that make up 70% of a golfer's power ranking

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $15.45 of our $100 to net $110 or more.

I typically try reflect my personal bets in the article, as this is a team effort after all. However, Daniel Berger's withdrawal exacerbated the typical shortening of odds as Monday unfolded. The three bets I placed on Monday morning allow me to bet 9.3 tournaments to break even, while the exact same three bets now break even after only seven events as odds have shortened over the last day or two. I don't want to exclude player X from the article as nothing would be worse than really liking a player that wins, that is not on our card.

We have been diligent with our bankroll management, so we are going to cough up a little more to get some skin in the game this week, recouping some budget in the FRL market. Not ideal for a tournament lacking any semblance of star power, but hopefully it pays off for us.

Adam Hadwin ($6.63 @ +1800 on FD)

Adam Hadwin is the fifth-highest ranked golfer in the model with the best baseline stats of our three outrights. For regular readers of this article, it should come as no surprise that we are back on Hadwin this week. The consistent Canadian finished T7 at the US Open which was the best finishing position in this field, tied with Denny McCarthy, who is also on our card. Needless to say, his recent form has been sensational, ranking fourth in strokes gained total over the last 24 rounds.

His approach stats could use a Fibre One bar as impressive iron play has been less regular this summer. If we can get back to gaining roughly a shot per round on approach, which was status quo earlier in the year, Hadwin's short game is eager to shine in the limelight at the top of the leaderboard. Improving on last year's scoring stats, in this field Hadwin ranks inside the top-10 in both Par 5 scoring and birdie or better percentage for the 2022 season. He has four top-10 finishes in his last nine starts, making himself quite comfortable at the top of leaderboards, hopefully culminating in his name at the very top on Sunday afternoon.

Sahith Theegala ($4.49 @ +2700 on FD)

Betting on Sahith Theegala is like trying to capture lightning in a bottle, with none of his five top-20s coming in back-to-back events. However, Sahith has two top-5s in his last three starts which gives us hope that he can continue his momentum and confidence from a heartbreaking T2 last week. In his two top-5 finishes Theegala has gained over 4.5 strokes with his irons, which will be a prerequisite for success this week. His lack of driving accuracy should be remedied by smart decision making off the tee, as his driving iron provides immediate accuracy while maintaining luxurious distance.

Theegala's short game has stolen the Fibre One bars from Hadwin's cupboard as he has been much more consistent on and around the greens this summer. Sahith ranks fourth in Par 5 scoring which is highlighted a little more than last week with three very scoreable long holes on this week's scorecard. He is also 12th in birdie or better percentage which is absolutely necessary to keep pace with the super low scores that will flood this week's prehistoric PGA Tour app. If Theegala enters the week with the drive and determination he has shown the last three weeks, he has the upside to make the JDC his first win as a Tour Professional.

Denny McCarthy ($4.33 @ +2800 on FD)

As mentioned in Hadwin's writeup, Denny McCarthy tied for the best finish at the US Open in this field. He then followed that up with a missed cut at the Travelers where he could not find the approach play that helped notch back-to-back top-10s in his previous two starts. McCarthy is accurate enough off the tee to give himself unimpeded opportunities to revive his approach play this week and his success hinges on his iron play that may or may not have resorted back to its baseline. The reason we are willing to take on this much risk from a ball striking standpoint, is because of Denny's brilliance with the flat stick.

Once he is on the green, McCarthy can lean on his field-best putting ability to capitalize on many of the birdie looks his ball striking hopefully affords him this week. His baseline birdie or better percentage and Par 5 scoring have typically been held back by his lackluster ball striking, but if he can microwave his approach play from two weeks ago, Denny's menu gets exponentially more appealing and with a bit of luck he leaves the weekend victorious.

First-Round Leaders

Because we went hard at the paint on the outright market we will be betting the same three "super stars" for first round leader honors at longer odds than their outright market, allowing us to recoup a little budget from our outright splurge.

We are betting $9.55 on our three outrights totalling $25 for outrights and first round leaders, which is our usual combined budget for the two markets.

Sahith Theegala 50-1 on PointsBet

Denny McCarthy 40-1 on FD

Adam Hadwin 33-1 on BetRivers (31 on FD)

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Placings

The model drank the John Deere Kool-Aid and kicked out FIFTEEN bets for the top 20/40 market. That seems a little excessive even for the Maniac's risk tolerance. Considering the fact that this tournament is about as predictable as a post Taco Bell fart, we decided to get rid of the 7 lowest odds leaving us eight bets ranging from +180 to +500. For most permutations, if any two of these bets cash, we break even. We are embracing the volatility of this tournament completely.

BetMGM is usually our book of choice for most of these bets as their odds are typically the best and they pay ties in full. One of the seven bets will be safe from dead heat rules as BetMGM was within 30 points of the best available odds on the market.

Mark Hubbard (T20: $8.75 @ +250 on BetMGM, +270 on DK)

Mark Hubbard has been uncharacteristically struggling around the greens lately, but his approach play and putting have been really impressive. When he loses off the tee, its typically because he sacrifices distance for accuracy, which is a tradeoff that will pay dividends at this course more than your average tour stop. Hubbard's nineth-ranked Par 5 scoring will also come in super handy this week when looking to sneak into the top-20.

Brendon Todd (T20: $8.75 @ +380 on FD, +200 on DK)

Brendon Todd is one of the shorter hitters on tour but makes up for the lack of distance off the tee with his fifth-ranked driving accuracy. His irons are mediocre which is palatable considering he is the best baseline putter in the field on all surfaces as well as Bent greens. If he can pound fairways and get enough approaches onto the green, his fiery flatstick should propel him into the top 20 this week. The difference in odds between FD and DK is delightful!

Lanto Griffin (T20: $8.75 @ +430 on FD, +260 on DK)

Lanto Griffin ranks second in baseline approach and 13th in baseline putting. The combination of those two stats make a top 20 at +430 super appealing, considering Griffin enters the week with the 20th-best recent form. He is also towards the top of the field in birdie or better percentage and can dismantle his fair share of Par 5s when he gets in the groove. Again, the discrepancy in odds between the two books is mind blowing!

Emiliano Grillo (T20: $8.75 @ +410 on FD, +300 on DK)

Emiliano Grillo ranks as the third best golfer in the model. His impeccable off the tee game mixed in with his incredible ability to make the fourth most birdies in the field are the two stats that thrust him up the model rankings. His recent approach play has drifted in the wrong direction, which is a slight concern, but at 4-1 if we get any semblance of his baseline iron play we are in business this week.

Tyler Duncan (T40: $8.75 @ +180 on DK)

Tyler Duncan has the 24th-best recent form in this field and also prides himself on a respectable course history at Deere Run. His recent and baseline approach play both rank inside the top-20 and his consistent accuracy off the tee combine for a ball striking one-two punch that allows us to turn a blind eye on below-average short game. His ball-striking should be enough to hopefully carry him to a top-40, and if his short game shows any enthusiasm this week, he could continue his impressive run of finishes at this event.

Vaughn Taylor (T40: $8.75 @ +210 on DK)

Vaughn Taylor has the best course history (11th) of all eight placing bets. His relatively impeccable approach play and tidy short game provide him with enough scoring ability around a shorter golf course which explains his impressive track record here. He is also a shorter driver of the ball who is hoping to take advantage of his accuracy off the tee this week and improve on an already stellar string of performances in the Quad Cities.

Charley Hoffman (T40: $8.75 @ +430 on FD, +200 on DK)

With FanDuel odds more than double DraftKings, Hoffman is a delightful +430 to finish top 40 at an event that he has typically done exactly that. In fact, his last six starts at the JDC have all been inside the top 40. He has been playing atrocious golf lately, but in a weaker field at a course he has thrived at historically, this may be my favorite bet of the week. He managed to salvage a t35 at the RBC Canadian when we were on him at +360 for a top-40. Let's run it back Chuck!

Jim Knous (T40: $8.75 @ +500 on FD, +350 on DK)

I had no idea who Jim Knous was before typing this article. Apparently in his 666 holes he has played this season he is 29th in birdie or better percentage ON TOUR! What? At a birdie fest that is exactly what we are looking for from some random dude who is 5-1 to finish inside the top 40. This is the definition of a number grab and number grabs have served us well in the past. This is one of my favorite reasons to bet golf. Nothing better than 5-1 odds on a random golfer to place inside the top-40 makes me smile.

The Farewell Fiver

Morgan Hoffman (T40: $5 @ +700 on FD)

Morgan Hoffman has an incredible story about battling Muscular Dystrophy. Steve Stricker, who has never missed a cut at the JDC, withdrew today and Morgan was invited into the field on a sponsor's exemption. This sequence of events seems like...fate. Hoffman made his first cut at the Travelers last week and now looks to take advantage of his first start on a sponsor's exemption after burning through his three medically exempt starts this year. FanDuel has him priced as the second-worst golfer in the field, which we can hopefully take advantage of or at least have some sort of connection to what feels like a fairy tale story this week.

It's going to be a weird week of golf, with lots of random names at the top of the leaderboard. We feel like we have covered our bases by including our fair share of random names on our card too. Looking forward to watching our guys go to work for us and hopefully a few of the "long shot" placing bets can come through for us.

And as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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