Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Mayakoba Classic

Former world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, will not be able to reclaim his crown with a win this week, but it would get him halfway up the royal stairs guarded by Rory McIlroy's booming drives and clutch performances. If Scottie were to win, it would mean that his putter has finally freed itself from the shackles that have kept him captive in a winless dungeon, losing -0.59 strokes on the greens in his last two-dozen rounds. Scheffler is still striking the ball at a world-class level, but he needs to figure the putter out before it plagues the rest of his game.

Viktor Hovland has the rare opportunity of a "3-peat" if he wins yet another textile chameleon at this year's ... World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, which is almost more difficult saying out loud than winning a PGA Tour event three times in a row. Regardless of the event's name, Hovland's aggressive accuracy off the tee, immaculate irons, and a putter that loves to make birdies on Paspalum greens, are all reasons why Hovland is a co-favorite to win in Mexico yet again. We will not be betting on either player, though, as we have our own challengers for the Mayakoba chameleon.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba: Par: 71, Yardage: 7,017 Greens: Paspalum

With a lot more seasoned PGA Tour players returning to this week's field, we have an exponential number of stats to lean on once again after last week's Korn Ferry conundrum. I reverse engineered the proximity buckets based off of a 300 yard drive on each hole and it makes sense why Viktor has played so well here. He leads the field in fairway proximity from 125-200 yards, which is where about half the shots come from each year.

Based off of these proximities above we have pro-rated our approach proximity buckets accordingly, dialed up the accuracy off the tee as well as the birdie or better scoring metric. The last six winners of this event have all found themselves at -20 or better. With scores this low, around the green play has been removed from our model and putting will be our sole short game driver of rankings. Course history will also play an important role in determining who we like here, as this course has seen a lot of the same people play well here each year.

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. After getting off to a hot start with Tom Kim at the Shriners, we are eagerly anticipating our next winner.

Billy Horschel ($6.75 @ +1800 on most books)

Billy Horschel heads to Mexico with three T10s in his three starts since the Tour Championship. His iron play is what has him on the card at such a short number, as he leads the field in strokes gained approach in the 2023 season. He gained +6.6 strokes on approach at the CJ Cup. If he brings THAT kind of iron play to a course that suits his accuracy off the tee, Billy is going to have more birdie looks than the Amazon Birdwatchers Club, if such a club did exist. When Billy misses a green, his around the green play is third-best in field.

In a field sprinkled with malfunctioning stars like Collin Morikawa (putter), Scottie Scheffler (putter), and Tony Finau (rusty?), Billy is one of the few top-tier players in the field that does not necessarily have a bugaboo creating doubt in our minds. He is also reasonably affordable at 18-1 when considering he has finishes of T33, T5, T8, and T21 at this course over the last five years. Recent form, course history, course fit, and a semi-affordable price tag has half our budget hitched to Horschel, who will be looking to spice up his reality with that bright-colored chameleon.

Emiliano Grillo ($3.49 @ +3500 on BetRivers)

Emiliano Grillo has become a staple of our outright card with four top-5s in his last 10 starts. His putter has been a fantastic weapon lately and now Grillo heads to Mayakoba where he has missed a cut and finished T8, T41, 15th, and T9 in his five trips down south. His game is arguably in the best shape it has been heading to a course that suits his accuracy off the tee and success within that 125-200 yard proximity range, ranking 9th in this field. There is just too much to like about Grillo's game to leave him off the card at this price point. His recent form is fantastic, his course fit is great, and we believe he has what it takes to win this event.

Nick Hardy ($1.63 @ +8000 on DraftKings)

Nick Hardy was on the card last week and will find himself on here again. He hit 75% of his greens in a blustery week at Bermuda, which is enough to tell us that he is still one of the best iron players in the field. This season's iron play is currently the fifth-best in the field, behind Horschel, Hoge, Day and Morikawa. Those are some serious ball strikers Hardy is wrestling with in that department and at 80-1 we are taking a chance that his putter sinks the multitude of birdie looks that he should have over the course of this week's Mayakoba Classic. Let's get ready to rumble!

Justin Lower ($2.21 @ +9000 on BetRivers)

Justin Lower has finishes of T4, T45, T20, and T8 in his first four events since the break. He is priced at 90-1 with two top 10s in half his last starts. His proximity numbers from 125-200 rank 4th in a field filled with Morikawas, Hovlands, and Schefflers. In fact, those are the only three guys who are ahead of him when hitting approaches from the fairway from those yardage buckets. Lower is blossoming from bubble boy, trying to simply stay on tour, to a weekly contender for victory. Since "missing that putt" to keep his tour card on the final hole of the season, Lower seems to be playing with house money now.

This course should suit his accuracy-over-distance mentality off the tee and if he can continue to play the kind of golf that has him sniffing around the top of the leaderboard in half his starts this season, 90-1 is downright disrespectful for a player of his caliber. Let's capitalize on this number and get low in Mexico!

Danny Lee ($0.49 @ +25000 on DraftKings)

Danny Lee has finished no worse than T26 in his last five appearances here. His results are astounding: T7, T26, 2nd, T25, T3. There is a withdrawal in there too, but he had already made the cut and was playing well. This is an absolute long shot, at ridiculous odds for someone who has played this well at this course, for this long. This week, he is known as Dan, the Mayakoba Horseman!

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Placings

We are back in action with six placement bets at $10 a pop. Two T20s and four T40s with most of the best odds on FanDuel.

Tom Hoge (T20: $10 @ +138 on BetRivers)

Emiliano Grillo (T20: $10 @ +190 on FanDuel)

Justin Lower (T40: $10 @ +110 on FanDuel)

John Huh (T40: $10 @ +210 on FanDuel)

Lucas Glover (T40: $10 @ +230 on FanDuel)

Austin Smotherman (T40: $10 @ +200 on FanDuel)

Matchups

I love these bets so much because outside of the juice you pay on the betting odds, you are not really betting against the book, but instead, betting against the opponent in the matchup, making this the safest of golf bets, in my opinion.

Let me explain why this is such a safe and profitable bet. If you place a T20 bet and that player withdraws, you lose. Similarly, if you place a matchup bet and he withdraws, you lose. BUT, if you place a matchup bet and your opponent withdraws, YOU WIN! The fairest of golf betting playing fields. It also provides you with opportunities to fade players you feel are overpriced, by placing bets against them in matchups with a player we think has a significant edge over "Mr. Overrated."

Last weeks matchup:

• Nick Hardy o Alex Smalley: $10 @ +100 on DraftKings - Hardy finished T26 but Smalley finished T11 two shots clear of our guy. Hardy went off in the opposite wave of Smalley which landed up being the exact difference as Friday afternoon played two shots harder than morning. It is what it is.

This week's matchup:

Joel Dahmen over Harris English -130 @ DraftKings

With Harris English still dusting off the rust from his injury, his driver has yet to return to consistently peppering fairways, which is why we are fading him in this matchup. He seems to make one or two really bad swings with the driver which can lead to a quick double bogey at this course. Dahmen has great history here, like English, but enters the week with much better form than Harris.

A Look Into The Future

With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.

The Players

Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)

After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.

The Masters

Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)

If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.

His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.

The Farewell Fiver

 (T20: $5 @ +650 on FanDuel)

Brian Gay cashed our first farewell fiver in some time, placing T11 last week to secure our T20 at +450. This week we are going to roll the dice on yet another horse for the course and sprinkle a little love on Danny Lee to finish T20 at +650 who has played tremendously at this venue over the years.

We are still not spending our entire bankroll ($100 per week) until we find some level of comfort with the model in full field events and bigger KFT sample sizes.

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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