RADIO
Well done to JT Poston who now has three wins on the PGA Tour, at courses he has typically thrived at historically. His run of form entering the week was mediocre by his standards but his T5 and T4 finishes around TPC Summerlin since 2018 were enough to convince fellow bettors to get on him in Vegas.
This week we are watching golf as we go to sleep, which is how the golfing gods intended. Falling asleep to golf is one of my favorite past times and hopefully on Saturday night we have bets that keep us from drifting off to dreamland where I am doing shoeys with Cam Smith around Augusta.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Shriners Recap
Well, we got absolutely blown out of Vegas last week and got tantalizingly teased by some of our bets. Taylor Pendrith shot -10 to start off the tournament (+7.86 SG) in R1, and then gained a measly +2.5 strokes over the next three rounds to miss out on his second win of the year. Frustrating stuff after ending Thursday at +250 to win the tournament. Ben Silverman (Top 40 bet) was only three shots back of Pendrith after R1 with a 64 (+4.86 SG) and then went on to lose -8.5 strokes over the weekend and fall all the way to T56. We added Rico Hoey live in R1 and he landed up finishing T3 for yet another outright that was close, but no cigar.
- Outrights -$8.43
- Placements -$38.21
- Farewell Fiver +$8.10
Chesson Hadley was leading his 3-ball with 3 holes to go and then parred a par 5 and bogeyed his next two holes to lose to Will Gordon by one shot and blow our chances of cashing in all four legs of our parlay (+3400) to save the week. Thin margins, friends, thin margins.
2024 Betting Results
It has been a year of two tales, with the outright market eluding us every time we got close to a winner. However, the placement market has been my bread and butter since entering the golf betting industry and it has been crushing for us all year long. People love outrights, and so, I give the people what they want. But, if you REALLY want to profit long term, the placement market is where you want to be following me.
- Outrights -63% ROI -$213
- Placements +10% ROI +$210
- Head to Heads -17% ROI -$22
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Weekly Betting Tip
I started this article to keep you up to speed with my bets each week and also to help us grow as golf bettors. So, I will be sharing a random betting tip each week that may apply to casual bettors or people who take gambling on golf a little more seriously.
This week's tip probably applies to those that fall between casual and serious. Set up betting accounts at as many sportsbooks as you feel comfortable with and are available in your state. This gives you the opportunity to line shop and find the best odds for each bet so that when your bet loses, you not losing as much as you are betting less to return the same amount as a book/app with shorter odds. This week, for example, Xander Schauffele's Top 10 odds at various books (ties paid in full):
- Bet365 -210 (68% implied probability) - $21 investment to return $10
- DraftKings -250 (71%) - $25
- BetMGM -275 (73%) - $27.50
- FanDuel -340 (77%) - $34
This may not seem like that big of a deal in a vacuum, and I understand that some states have very limited books available, but if we take Bet365 (-210, $21) and compare it to FanDuel (-340, $34) over the course of 10 weeks, let's see how much money we would save. We will also assume this bet wins 7 of the 10 weeks, which is roughly the 68% implied probability of the -210 bet, and when you win the odds don't matter if you are betting to return $10 on the bet. But, when we lose 3 of the 10 bets, this is where we notice some massive benefits of having the better line.
- (-210) -$21 x 3 = -$63
- (-340) -$34 x 3 = -$112
$112 - $63 = $49 which is essentially two extra "free bets" and some change at Bet365, which is a massive difference in preserving your bank roll. If you want to take betting a little more seriously, set up accounts at multiple books to avoid settling for terrible numbers at the one book you have access to. This applies to outrights, placements, matchups and all other bets these casinos offer. Having had a terrible year in the outright market, knowing that it could have been even worse had I not found the best numbers at various books, makes me feel better about the situation.
Outrights $10
The odds in all markets are significantly shorter this week as we have a smaller field that is top heavy with talent. But we feel like we found some solid numbers on the two golfers we are going to be picking to win this week.
Hideki Matsuyama $4.42 x2 (+900 WIN / +225 top 5 each way @ Bet365)
Bet365 has a +900 out there and we also took the each way on it for Hideki Matsuyama, but +850 is also a number I would have settled for. Hideki could easily change his name to Drama Matsuyama, as he is always live to withdraw from a tournament regardless of how well or poorly he is playing (see BMW Championship where he gained 5 strokes in R1 and then withdrew). However, we are teeing it up in his home country in front of his home fans and Japanese culture is founded on respect and accountability, so hopefully he can keep his Asics on the course all four rounds for us and his adoring fans.
Drama Matsuyama has won this event before (2021) and finished runner up in 2019, so he is capable of dismantling Accordia GC. His T51 in last year came off the back of another WD at the BMW and a span of seven consecutive finishes outside the top 10 with similar form, including a WD at the 3M, plaguing his T40 in 2022 as well. I present these disappointing metrics leading up to the poor finishes the last two years to contrast his run of five top 10 finishes in his last nine starts heading into this year's ZOZO. Look at that recent ball striking in the Data Golf screenshot below!
Matsudrama also has two wins on the season at the Genesis Invitational and the FedEx St. Jude. With Accordia GC having Zoysia grass as its primary surface, his two wins this year are even more significant when realizing that Riviera's has Kakuya grass, which has similar characteristics to Zoysia, as the ball sits up really nicely on both these surfaces. TPC Southwind has Zoysia grass where Hideki held off Schauffele, Hovland and Scheffler on the same glorious grass he will see this week. The stars are aligning.
Lost in the shuffle of the USA stars trouncing the International team at the Presidents Cup, was Hideki Matsuyama's singles win over the World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler (1 up). Hideki birdied seven of the final dozen holes to dish out an unimpactful loss to the shuffling Scheffler. I attended the event in person and Hideki gained a massive fan, both on the scale and in support, as I was so impressed with his performance on Friday when he sank clutch putt after clutch putt, handing Xander and Cantlay their biggest defeat in alternate shot, walking off the course on the 13th hole. Probably my favorite experience as a golf fan, EVER!
Finally, the Japanese juggernaut has always been known for his ball striking, ranking third IN THE WORLD over the last 20 rounds of golf. But wait, there is more! The 2024 ZOZO Champion has also gained +0.9 strokes putting in his last 12 rounds before sinking every putt under the sun in Montreal, providing him with a bulletproof game from driver to drained putts. We have grass he has succeeded on, a course he has won on, form that includes a win only three starts ago, a putter that is gaining just shy of a stroke per round, ball striking brilliance and his last competitive round was a singles win over the World No. 1. If we had any more boxes to check, I'd have to get a second Sharpie! Deki, go do this thang, baby!!!
Beau Hossler $1.14 +3500
We are placing our remaining outright budget on player formerly known as Bryson DeScamBeau. Hossler enters the week having finished T23, T11, 2nd (playoff loss) MC and T12 in his last five starts. He has gained around the green in all of them and has seen some rejuvenation off the tee, gaining +0.4 per round in his last 28 starts, which, when compared to the 28 rounds before that losing him -0.2 per round, is the reason we have four top 23s in five starts. Recent form? Check!
At 35-1, despite not having won on the PGA Tour yet, two of his five second place finishes on the PGA tour seem to have merged entering the week, as he finished second in a playoff three starts ago and finished T2 here last year. He is in phenomenal form and will be looking to capitalize on that at a course where he has the best strokes gained average in this field with a T2 and T12 in his pair of starts at Accordia GC. It's go time. It's Beau time!
Placements $85
For those of you new to this article, this is really where we make our money! Betting roughly $85 a week on placements this year, we are up over $200 this year so far. Hopefully we can continue to keep that momentum going to finish out the year while adding a few outrights onto the profit side of things too! Below is how we came to the bets we are placing in the placement market.
Here is how we are allocating our funds for this segment.
Xander Schauffele T10 -210
Sahith Theegala T10 +145
Si Woo Kim T20 -110
Beau Hossler T20 -105
Maverick McNealy T20 +100
Tom Hoge T20 +125
Seamus Power T20 +120
The Farewell Fiver $5
This is just a little $5 fun round one 3-ball round robin to make sure that if we get four of the legs right, we still make some $$$ on the week. All five returns $137.52.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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