RADIO
Byron's free PGA betting picks for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.
It was a great week for Wyndham Clark and RotoBallers alike, as the Saturday finish had Clark securing his third PGA title in 9 months and Spencer Aguiar's second 100-1 outright hit on the Coloradan. Is he the hottest golfer on the planet right now? His consistency is not even in the same stratosphere as the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, but over the last 9 months, he has won more tournaments than both of them combined. Granted, Scottie Scheffler has won three events since he last played the WM Phoenix Open here last year, but Clark is at least throwing his sporadic, randomly atomic hat into the circle.
Speaking of winning here last year, and the year before, Scottie Scheffler will look to become the first person to "3-peat" since Steve Stricker thrice plowed through the field of the John Deere Classic from 2009 to 2011. Scheffler has had three of his seven best putting performances on the silky greens of TPC Scottsdale and is aptly priced at +500 in a field that lost both Hovland and Schauffele who withdrew after getting beat up around Pebble Beach and struggling to get out of the storm-swept Monterey Peninsula.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver" all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Recap of Last Week
The Nasty Nine did not manage to get into the winner's circle, but Sam Burns (10th) and Tom Hoge (6th) were sniffing around the top of the leaderboard and who knows what could have been had we got a fourth round of golf. Spoiler alert! We got them both back on our card again this week. After losing every one of our bets last week, we went with a light card that had immense upside, and boy oh boy did that upside come through.
We only invested a total of $40 into the week as we had no idea what the weather would do and managed to double our investment despite losing $20 in the outright market. Peter Malnati you beautiful bucket hat wearing son of a gun! He finished T14 and cashed our +900 T20 ticket on him, with other Rotoballers without access to ties paid in full, cashing larger tickets at +1100 and not having to worry about dead heats. Justin Thomas anchored our card with a solid return on his T10 bet at +230!
We also made four live bets in the first three rounds, going 3-1 and adding $20 our bankroll as Max Homa, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas all shot under their round totals in R1 and R2. Scottie Scheffler laid an egg in R3, losing our 3-ball matchup against Detry and Aberg, but the week was a resounding success, which was desperately needed after the Farmers Insurance Red Wedding the week before.
Outrights ($10)
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This week we are "Engaging Eight" hoping to blitz the leaderboard with golfers possessing elite characteristics in a few key areas of their game that could translate really well to this venue. We are not rolling out the full budget for outrights this week as we are holstering a few units to try grab a 40-1 or so on Justin Thomas if he gets off to a slow start, which he did here last year. Fingers crossed. I will be adding this after round 1 in my showdown article, if the opportunity presents itself.
Sam Burns $2.89 @ 25-1 (FanDuel)
The winner of the last WGC Match Play event, where he took down a rampant Cameron Young (arguably breaking the guy, as he has not really recovered since) and beating his buddy, Scottie Scheffler in the semi-final match. Burns owns a 2-0 record over Scheffler the last two times they found themself in contention, adding a walk off win at the Charles Schwab Challenge two years ago to his Scottie scalp collection. This is one of the main reasons I adore Burns this week, as he is not afraid to go toe-to-toe with anybody when in contention, as Scottie's ball-striking floor should have him loitering around the top of the leaderboard that he has made his very own travelling air BnB, week in, week out.
It is all good and well to be able to close out tournaments when in the mix, but getting into contention is arguably the hardest part and we are hoping to catch Sam Burns in some really good form entering the week. Burns has a 10th and a sixth-place finish in his last two starts, adding a sixth-place finish here last year to the list of reasons we like him this week. His putter and approach play have been trending really nicely, and if that confidence spills over into his driver, call management because Sam is about to waste this Phoenix Open field.
Sahith Theegala $1.44 @ 50-1 (FanDuel)
Sahith Theegala is the literal definition of lightning in a bottle, as his last few starts have had a win eight starts ago, a 2nd four starts ago, and nothing better than T19 in the other events in between. He is a boom or bust baller, which makes him an ideal outright and T5 candidate because of this profile. He also tends to handle the pressure of pursuing a win really well, choosing to fight instead of flight. He now heads to a golf course that delayed the blossoming of his career two years ago, with a really bad bounce on the 71st hole sending his ball into the water. Two years later, Theegala will be looking for redemption with a win now under his belt!
Byeong Hun An $1.44 @ 50-1 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun An has four top-5 finishes in his last eight starts. Let that sink in real quick. Half of his last eight starts have been fourth or better!!! Since graduating flying class he has hopped onto his broomstick and gained strokes putting in all but one of his nine starts since July. He has played TPC Scottsdale five times in his career, finishing T23 or better in four of those events. His iron play has flirted with gaining two total strokes in every one of those starts, even when finishing T53. His tee-to-green has been impeccable at this course and now shows up with the missing piece, a 50 inch broomstick that should see him soar to victory after many close calls lately.
We placed this bet Sunday night on the research stream that I do every week at 10ET while they are on the west coast.
Emiliano Grillo $0.66 @ 80-1 (FanDuel)
Emiliano Grillo is the 9th-best putter entering the week, and despite his iron play being a bit of a let down lately, he heads to a course where he will likely hit 45% of his approach shots from 150-200 yards. The Argentine and winner of last year's Charles Schwab Challenge, thrives from that range, gaining the 8th-most strokes on approach from there over the last 12 months. Those are two top-10 areas of his game that he gets to show off at 110-1, at a number which we are completely fine ignoring his mild lack of ball striking form entering the week. Let's get it Grillo!
Tom Hoge $0.66 @ 110-1 (FanDuel)
The only golfer hitting his irons better than Tom Hoge over the last two-dozen rounds? Scottie Scheffler. Despite lacking a bit off the tee, Tommy Tables grades out as the 19th best overall ball-striker in the field courtesy of the shiny silver sizzle sisters collectively known as Titleist 620 MB irons. Hoge has had mixed results at this venue, with his better performances notching finishes of T14 in 2022 and T25 in 2020. The way he is hitting his irons right now, getting triple digit odds on him while his putter seems to have found a bit of a groove, is very exciting.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $0.48 @ 150-1 (FanDuel)
"The last seven starts for my fellow countryman, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, have had a 2nd, 3rd, T6, T9 and T17 in five of them. Some were back home in SA, while the T6 at the Sanderson Farms and the 2nd place at the AMEX are two high end finishes for him on the PGA Tour which could potentially spill over into a win at a Pebble Beach golf course that will hardly punish his lack of distance off the tee, while his recent spike in iron play the last few starts should see him rolling in a lot of birdie putts. He had four wins on the European Tour in 2019 and 2020 which sprung him like a Springbok onto the PGA Tour where he is eyeing his first win on US soil." - Pebble Beach writeup.
Minus the distance off the tee, everything else mentioned above is still extremely valid, with his iron play even more impressive after a T20 at Pebble saw him enter this week with the third most strokes on approach in his last 24 rounds. Full disclosure, only 8 of them were shotlink. But, Bezuidenhout possess the lethal combination of approach play and putting that can see him at the top of the leaderboard in similar fashion to that of his AMEX 2nd-place finish a few weeks ago. He is due to follow in the footprints of his fellow South African, Erik Van Rooyen, adding another PGA Tour win to the Springbok trophy cabinet, making himself a very viable returner to this year's President's Cup.
Kevin Yu $0.48 @ 150-1 (DraftKings)
We have multiple golfers on our card who would be #1 in a respective stat, were Scottie Scheffler not in the field. Kevin Yu is second in the field in ball-striking over the last 24 rounds, that include 10 shot link rounds. He is a freak off the tee, possessing power and precision and now that he has flirted with gaining strokes on the greens, we have seen Yu finish T3 and T6 in half of his 2024 starts. The events he has lost strokes putting, he has finished T58 or missed the cut. We placed this bet on the Sunday Night Research Stream, and the number has since plummeted to 70-1. That makes us feel good about the value we got before the books refreshed the odds board. Go win it this week, Kevin!
Troy Merrit $0.14 @ 500-1 (BetRivers)
We have seen Troy Merrit overcome the YIPS and has been gaining strokes in a big way with the putter the last few starts. He is also really tidy around the greens and has the potential to spike on approach. We just had a bit of a gut feel here and I think what made this bet most enticing is that we also got him at 100-1 for a top-6 as we took the Each Way option at BetRivers. So we have $0.14 on him for a top-6 as well, which we will include in the placement part of the card.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($85)
The placement portion of this card is wild. We are loading up on some really long odds, but with minimal exposure from an investment perspective. We are also basically doing what we have done this year, and bet our outrights top-5. But this week we are going to assign that budget to markets each respective golfer has found the most success in over the last 12 months.
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based off the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10, or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10, but always find themself in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet?
The yellow columns are the dollars lost or won the last 12 months, white column being the return on investment % (profit(loss)/investment), and the green column being the rate at which a golfer finishes in each respective position tier.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball Parlay $5 to win $98.79 (DraftKings)
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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