RADIO
Wait, we have signature event without the World No. 1 who has won four of his last five starts? Hell yes! We get a chance to finally throw some semi-confident cash at some top names in the hopes that the second places they likely would have ended up with will translate to a "W" while the earthly golf god awaits the arrival of the PGA Tour's leading ball striker in 2055. If Scheffler's lovely lady has any semblance of athleticism in here DNA, little Scottie is going to likely come out feet first (like dad) with a plastic 7-iron resting over his/her left shoulder.
Quail Hollow the week before the PGA Championship is going to give us the opportunity to sweat a few names to win this week, and those that don't who still played well, will likely find themselves in some sort of consideration for the PGA Championship card which is next week for the 2nd major of the year.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Recap of Last Week
Boy oh boy are we having a fun time betting golf right now! We have profited $47 at the RBC Heritage and $58.82 last week to eclipse $100 in profit over the last two weeks of golf betting. The Jake Knapp ladder stopped a rung short, only cashing T10 and T20 bets after getting a little jumpy on Sunday in the final group, missing out on his T5 which would have returned us $100 of profit in the placement market. We were very close to a huge week!
🔥Breaking $100 recap: $58.82 profit 🔥
Outrights -$10
- Benny Missed 3rd place EW by a shot 🙁Placements +$73.82
✅Knapp T5/T10/T20 💀🪜🪜
✅Benny T5
✅Noren T20
✅Si Woo T20
✅D Wu T40Farewell Fiver -$5
NOTES
- Knapp not cashing the T5 of the 🪜 after being in the… https://t.co/RkYQSMprJb pic.twitter.com/sj6C4hj4Zg
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) May 5, 2024
2024 RESULTS
We have had a really weird year so far. The fact that we are only down -$23.69 considering we had three weeks where we lost a total of $290, while the other 13 weeks profited $266.46, hitting only 1 outright (-$10 per week) during that span. What was most exciting about the last two weeks' worth of results, is that we only profited $9 and $20 less than the week we hit an outright with Knapp in Mexico. But we need to limit the VERY bad weeks and keep stacking profit each week until we are back in the green for the year!
Outrights ($10)
Sahith Theegala $1.49 (+4000) $1.49 (+800 3 places each way)
Guys, Sahith Theegala is going to be a super star! He has two runner-up finishes to Chris Kirk at the Sentry, who was playing like the current version of Scottie Scheffler, and Scheffler himself at the RBC Heritage. I do like that we had the Zurich between his 2nd at Harbour Town and this week as he not had back-to-back top-5 finishes on tour yet. If you have not paid attention to golf the last few weeks, please know that it is not an error when I say that Sahith has gained the 7th most strokes off the tee in 2024. His driver and putter both ranking top-7 make him a VERY scary proposition when the irons start firing up.
His irons should find themselves with countless opportunities to show off their 10th-ranked proximity from 200+ in the fairway and 5th on approach out the rough from 150 yards and out. His weighted proximity ranks 8th in this field, making him a sneaky-underrated iron player at this venue that rewards those who can really dial it in from the longer yardages. It will also be really fun to watch Sahith's abundance of supporters when in contention who are summoned like Death Eaters (Harry Potter reference) on ecstasy the moment Theegala frequents the top of the leaderboard. Let's get that first BIG DUB, THEE. GA. LA!!!!!
Wyndham Clark $2.96 (+2000)
The defending champion from last year, who has won an additional two events since that include a US Open and course record at Pebble Beach, priced in the 20-1 range? Meanwhile, the group of much shorter priced golfers of Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Rory McIlroy all have to flip the pages of their record logs back to 2022 to find an individual stroke play tournament on US soil they won. And even then, Clark leads the field with a 32% top-5 rate, in the last 12 months with back-to-back runner up finishes to Scottie Scheffer at the API and PLAYERS. It simply makes no sense that he is priced this way based off all these arguments. Let's make the bookies pay when Clark once again overpowers this course off the tee and out the rough, while his putter also eagerly awaits to bring an abundance of strokes gained to the party any given week.
Max Homa $2.37 (+2500)
I am not going to delve into the statistical side of this bet, as Homa has been rather uninspiring for most of the year, notching his first top-5 of the season at the Masters of all places. His T9 at the Open Championship evidently giving him all the confidence in the world in the next major where he had a chance to win a green jacket had he not got a really brutal bounce on the 12th hole, leading to a double after bouncing just over the green. We will ignore the T55 the week after as I am sure Max was celebrating his first top end major finish well into the week.
Speaking of celebrating, that is what Max Homa has done at a Wells Fargo Championship, twice, winning his first PGA event here in 2019 and then his 2nd WFC in 2022 at TPC Potomac. His T8 here last year was his best finish that year in the span that dates from the Masters in April to the St. Jude championship in August, so good golf is possible here regardless of his form. He is so comfortable around this venue as he also won all four of his Presidents Cup matches here two years ago. All we need to know is that Homa has a smidgeon of confidence that can snowball into his third Wells Fargo win, which should make him a minority owner of the US bank at this point.
Matt Fitzpatrick +3500 ($1.70)
Fitzpatrick and his scrappy skill set that translates well to tough conditions, having already won a US Open is our final outright bet. I have joked about Fitz's dad banking with WF to take out his student loan at Northwestern as we are always looking for something sentimental to link to him at a venue. He won at Harbour Town where his family has vacationed for many years and the US Open was where he won the US AM a couple years back. Regardless of sentimentality, his length off the tee, precision with irons outside of 175 yards and ability to get his ball up and down for par from just about anywhere, makes him a great candidate to potentially get hot and win this thing at -12 after a windy week in Charlotte, NC.
Placings ($65)
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10 (see Wyndham T10%/T5%). Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
If you are looking for this kind of information on golfers that are not in this screenshot, my full model is available >>>HERE<<< when you upgrade to our premium packages. Code maniac is going to save you 10% when signing up and really helps me out too!
Matchups ($20)
Xander over Rory +105 (DraftKings)
The fact that this bet is plus-money is the only reason we are really getting any value. Xander has been playing sensational golf this year, while Rory has only one top-20 on the PGA Tour this year, finishing third at the Valero, 9 shots back of the two leaders. Xander has seven top-10s in his ten starts this year, giving him an incredibly high floor at a venue he finished runner up last year!
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $152.35 (FanDuel)
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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