RADIO
We are going to enjoy an expedited article as we are running way behind this week. Life can just get away from you at times but we are behind the keyboard and sharing some thoughts and bets on the week for the Texas Children's Houston Open.
Congrats to Peter Malnati who took yet another piece of Cam Young's soul with another runner up finish. Peter Malnati outdueling Cameron Young pretty much sums up this year so far.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of Last Week
Breaking $100 recap: -$17.62 loss
❌ Outrights -$9.24
❌ Placements -$18.38
✅Matchups +$10
✅Winning Score +$10
❌Farewell Fiver (Thurs & Fri) -$10Notes:
Honestly happy to come away with basically outrights and farewell fiver being the reason we weren't profitable. Either of… https://t.co/LZkm2lyj1U
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 25, 2024
Outrights ($10)
Sahith Theegala $3.44 (22-1 FanDuel)
Rumor has it that Sahith Theegala won a dollar off of Houston's top hustler by hitting a golf ball through the bar's front door keyhole. His driver has been a lot more consistent than it was in 2023 and at this venue, he should be able to utilize his length and control of his driver to start the hole with a step in the right direction. He enters the week having gained the third most total strokes behind Scheffler and Clark. That kind of form and course fit (Silverado Resort is a comp) has me more than interested in him this week.
When it comes to short game magic and not backing down at the guy staring him down for the win that week, Sahith Theegala has a fiercely competitive element to his profile, which could see him become a major star now that his driver has rounded out the only area of his game that was not as shiny as the rest. A lot to like about our guy this week, with hopes that he can grip it, rip it, and chip it to victory in Houston.
Will Zalatoris $3.80 (20-1 FanDuel)
I am not a fan of how the rough has been cut down this week, but at a course that rewards overall ball striking, which Will Zalatoris does the 5th-best so far this year. If he can continue to keep peppering greens with long irons, Zalatoris should be playing relatively stress-free golf at a venue that has played over par for most of the rounds since playing here. The grass overseeds at this time of the year should see scores being a little easier. But the wind is going to be blowing harder than it usually does in November, hopefully the tournament doesn't see too many birdies and box Willy Z out, who should thrive on scores between -10 and -15.
The results at similar courses Zal has played at this year have been amazing, with a T13 at the Farmers, T2 at the Genesis Invitational, and T4 at the API. All courses with emphasis on driver off the tee and long irons into the greens with scores never really reaching much more than -15 at those venues. Now that they have cut the rough down even more, this reminds me more of Riviera CC than the other two courses. Great form, course fit and a price that I felt was reasonable in this field, Will Zalatoris is our second option on our card!
Live Add? 28-1 $2.76
We added Billy Horschel at 200-1 on Saturday, but never got it together. We have an option to add to our card at 28-1 once we get a better feel for how this course is playing this week.
Placings ($85)
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $167.69 (DraftKings)
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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