RADIO
Well, well, well, Scottie Scheffler can't win this event, or the John Deere Classic, or the Scottish Open, because he is taking a well-deserved break after his six wins this year. This week brings with it a group of golfers which could be equated to the B team, showing up in a van with the exhaust pipe dragging along the ground. The reason for the exhaust reference, is because both Akshay Bhatia and Tom Kim are playing in their 8th and 9th consecutive tournaments. They have to be exhausted. Well, at least my 32-year old brain would think so, but they are both 22 years young.
With the two of them and a few other big names like Cameron Young and Min Woo Lee stacking the top of the odds board, this event has often produced winners in the long shot range which will make for some interesting decisions as a few of these guys are really playing exceptional golf right now. Who ultimately lands up winning this thing, is as big a mystery to me as it is to you, but we are going to give it a go at finding that person this week.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights $10
We are betting $10 on our outrights AND each ways. I am starting to go crazy not having hit a 2nd outright this week.
Akshay Bhatia $2.28 x2 +2200 @ Bet365
I believe this is the first time we are ever betting Akshay. Yes, the spaghetti-legged lasers he hits off the tee will be in their 8th straight start, but the youngster is only 22 years old and could arguably outwalk Forest Gump if you gave him the opportunity. The exciting part about his last three starts are how his finishes are trending, with a T5 last week, T16 at the US Open and T22 at the Memorial. He also has only played four consecutive tournaments with four days of golf, having missed two cuts prior to his T60 at the RBC Canadian. So, let's call it his fifth start?
After his missed cut at the Charles Schwab, Akshay has gained an average of +0.8 off the tee in his last 18 rounds. Scottie Scheffler is averaging +0.57 in his last 16, for reference. In fact, baby long legs is gaining the fifth most strokes off the tee over the last 20 rounds in this field, despite his distance ranking 76th. He is absolutely dialed off the tee right now, which makes golf stress free and affords him middle-of-the-fairway birdie looks at a rate Rocket Mortgage would struggle to match.
After his win at the Valero, his putter has been mediocre (+0.11 per round), but in his last six rounds, we are looking at an average of +1.25 gained and with the greens this week consisting of the same surface as last week's Traveler's, where he finished fifth in putting expect some bombs on the greens too. The stars are aligning for our shortest, slinkiest outright and we fancy his chances to keep the ball in play and continue making those putts. Let's get that second win, Bhay-Bhay!
Taylor Pendrith $1.26 X2 +4000 @ FanDuel
Our only bet without an eachway, but we will bet him in the T10 market too! Pendrith has show a total turnaround in his game the last few starts since his T11 at the Corales Puntacana, following that up with a win at the CJ CUP (a comp course), a T10 at Wells Fargo, T21 at RBC Canadian, T16 at the US Open and T23 at the Travelers. Consistent for most of his starts lately, he has also finished T14 and T2 at this venue, making for a culmination of form and fit that we are looking to capitalize on. He is now +2800 in some places and +2500 at most, so we once again have massive closing line value on a golfer (CoughCollinCough) who hopefully won't let us down heading into Sunday with a chance.
Michael Thorbjornsen $0.77 x2 +6500 @ Bet365
The title of this write up is the last time I will be typing that finger-pretzel inducing last name in this article. Let's roll with Michael or Thor as the name we associate with the 22nd best putter in the Traveler's field and a short game that ranked 7th. He gained a total of +4.7 strokes putting in rounds 2, 3 and 4 after losing -3.1 on Thursday in his professional debut. Let's chalk it up to nerves. We are looking for guys who can make putts this week, and by golly, I am going to type his last name out because it appears Thorbjornsen can make putts, folks.
He is also very long off the tee, with TPC River Highlands not really doing him many favors to allow him to unleash the beast off the tee. There is a reason they call this tournament the Rocket, though, with the likes of Big Toney Finau, Cameron Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau having won three of the five events held here. Rickie's win ranked 35th in distance while his accuracy was 65th. You need one or the other, typically (don't look at Adam Hadwins T2 with 80th worst OTT numbers), as the other four top-5 finishers last year were top-20 in either distance or accuracy for the week. Thor has a bit of both, with a lot more distance likely showing up this week.
He was the first of our outrights we dropped in the discord. His irons remain a mystery with some sporadic gains and losses last week. But, at this price point, we are okay hoping they show up and the driver and putter continue to win him this tournament in his 2nd PGA start as a professional. This time, in a field weaker than Collin Morikawa's efforts on Sundays in contention. Boom Roasted. Go win this thing, Thor!!
Erik Van Rooyen $0.72 x2 +7000 @ Bet365
If you give Van Rooyen a soft easy golf course, with a weak field, he typically contends. He had a T4 at the Myrtle Beach Classic, T2 at the Cognizant and flirted with winning the Mexico Open for a while on route to a T8. The model loves EVR this week, courtesy of his stellar ball striking and a putter that both rank inside the top-20 for the year (in this field). My South African compatriot won the tournament after South Africa won the Rugby World Cup, and although the T20 Cricket World Cup has not ended yet, South Africa is starting to surge towards a potential break-through on the pitch, which EVR will be looking to match once again for us.
Jake Knapp $0.46 x2 +11000 @ Bet365
Our second sweet, mullet laden, penguin wearing prince, and our only outright hit of the year (so far), is 110-1 Jake Knapp. His effortless power has me staring at the screen wondering if my wife thinks I'm imagining some of my favorite Scarlett Johansson scenes. At a Detroit Golf Course where you need either distance or accuracy, Knapp has distance. His last few starts have been rather snoozy for the Knappster, but what does wake us up a little, is his last few non-major, non-signature events, where he finished 8th at the CJ Cup Byron, T4 at Cognizant and winning the Mexico Open, while also finishing T3 at the Farmers.
Those results could have to do with the fact that they were a while ago, but also, he has played some really tough courses and in some really tough fields after his win got him into those events. This week should be a little more like the venues he has thrived in this year, especially with it being a drenched Detroit Golf Club that has received tons of rain. Outside of Thor and Tosti, it appears that we are really honing in on guys who have won this year, with four of our six pack notching a win in the last 12 months. Nice price, very nice swing, let's eat that winner's cake Jake!
Alejandro Tosti $0.51 x2 +10000 @ Bet365
The reason Alejandro's last name is Tosti, is because he came out of his mother's womb swinging drives at such velocity that it immediately made the room warm and toasty. Okay, I reached a little far there, kind of like his drives on courses where he can let the big dog eat. His distance in this field is 14th in this field and his irons have also been firing up lately. The putter shows up like Rory McIlroy at signature events after a major disaster, aka, sometimes. Boom! Roasted! Like Tosti's drives, hitting the not-really drivable Par 4 13th which played 338 yards at this year's PGA Championship.
338 yards ➡️ 6 feet?!@AleTostiOK just drove the green at the par-4 13th!pic.twitter.com/BdeVtiHy71
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 19, 2024
If the putter can get a little lucky on the greens, we are in business with Tosti this week, who won the Pinnacle Bank Championship last year on the KFT where he averaged 28.7 yards more than the field average OTT. Tosti will likely be in the top 20 in driving distance, which is enough to take a gamble on him at 100-1, with his last start at the Charles Schwab seeing him gain +6.6 strokes on approach, gaining over a stroke in each of the four rounds that saw him finish T17. A nice little bit of form heading into the week, which, disgustingly was a month ago, with golfers not playing in the US Open and without signature event status, not playing any golf for three straight weeks.
Placings ($75)
We have seven additional placements this week.
These are the reasons we like these guys.
Matchups ($0)
The books are too chicken to throw out any matchups that have any sort of edge, with the majority of the tournament long markets providing no value in my matchup tool.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
We have been close, but we are going to try something slightly different this week, placing $1 on the 4-leg parlay, and an additional $1 on each of the 3-leg combinations that come along with it. These 3 of 4 weeks have driven us to this decision, while we still have that $1 on the full 4-legger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_N021hnhE4&t=485s
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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