RADIO
The golfing world is coming together for the second time since Augusta. Scottie has just had a baby, Rory just filed for divorce, Ludvig has a knee issue, Will Zalatoris has a bad back, Jon Rahm has essentially become irrelevant since moving to LIV, yet Brooks Keopka enters the week with his life in the most manicured shape of all the big dogs.
I do joke a little about the hyperbole of everything going on around the best in the game, but at the end of the day, golf is about as much mental strength as it is physical, and if you mind is not in the right spot, you are going to have a tough time handling Valhalla!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of Last Week
- Outrights -$10
- Placements -$3.64
- Matchup -$20
- Farewell Fiver -$5
- Live Tommy Par 5 Hole Bet +$8
- Total -$30.64
If Xander beats Rory, we have a profitable week. Tommy Fleetwood played the final four holes +2, parring one of the easiest holes on the course and then bogey two of the three green mile holes, to finish 1 shot out of T10. Wyndham Clark never showed up all week, making two doubles on his front nine on Thursday. Just a rough week overall. We will bounce back!
Outrights ($10)
Sahith Theegala $0.93 +7500
At some point he has to get across the line for us! Theegala has two 2nd place finishes and a fifth (while we have been on him this year). So the form is there, he just failed to beat one thing each of those weeks - Chris Kirk, Scottie Scheffler and the Arizona Weather. Last week Sahith had his best round on approach in R2 at Quail Hollow which he then promptly followed up with a 82 on Saturday. I then went ahead and pulled up Saith's best rounds on approach and considering Valhalla is 7,600 yards with thick rough, all but two of the other courses he has gained over 3 on approach were:
- Torrey Pines (South)
- Riviera Country Club
- Muirfield Village
- Vidanta Vallarta
- LACC
All of these courses are longer than 7,270 yards. He tends to find his peak form on approach at venues like Valhalla. Theegala also has a T9 at Augusta which checks the box for me to roster him as an outright, although, I would much rather have that T9 be a T2 as 64% of PGA Championship winners since 2019 have had prior major finishes of T2 or better before their win.
🔥Shout out to @SRTheegala who just sizzled his way to a -6 (65) around Quail Hollow on route to his BEST round on approach of his career, gaining +4.04 (raw) strokes in R2 of the Wells Fargo Championship🔥
Below are his career rounds gaining 3+ on approach... not sure why I… pic.twitter.com/s4E1BOjaIe
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) May 10, 2024
Wyndham Clark $2.25 (+3100)
I would go on about how well Wyndham Clarks's power and ability to generate stopping ability out of thick rough with long irons is what separates a lot of professionals in majors and tough signature events. In his last 13 months of golf, Wyndham has won the US Open, 2023 Wells Fargo Championship (Quail = Comp), set the course record at Pebble Beach and has finished runner up to Scottie Scheffler at both the API and PLAYERS.
I have often referred to him as Clark Kent, with Scottie now looking like his Kryptonite, BUT, Scottie may have his own form of Kryptonite in the former of his little baby that was just born a few days ago. Clark has all the skills required to win this event, and even though I have a +3100 ticket, there are +4500s and +4000s still floating out there if you still looking to get your hands on one of the most prodigious winners on the PGA behind Scheffler, at 10 to 15 times the price!!!
Bryson DeChambeau $2.48 (+2500)
For some reason we are going in reverse order of odds, because I guess I just couldn't wait to type about Sahith! Bryson, Bryson, Bryson. This is one of the first times I have bet the baby beef cake to win a tournament. He does the most important thing, the best, which is drive it far and relatively straight. In fact, in his last six majors (22 rnds) he has gained 30 (THIRTY) strokes off the, averaging +1.36 per round. What happens after that is usually a mystery for all involved, but if Bryson can put forth a similar performance to Oak Hill, where he gained 7 strokes off the tee ranking first that week off the tee. He also ranked 11th in approach play at a venue with rough that will likely be as thick, if not thicker this week! He is the perfect type of golfer for this golf course at a fair price considering he has a US Open win under his belt!
Brooks Koepka +1600 ($4.34)
The most expensive golfer on our outright card comes in the buff build of Brooks! He has five majors to his name, looking to add his fourth PGA Championship to a trophy cabinet that has been home to many Wannamaker Trophies over the years. Brooks also has an additional four more runner up finishes in majors since 2017, which is a total of eight top-2s. Over that stretch, Brooks has notched up TEN top-5s, which also leads the field since 2017. He is a major menace and after a win on LIV two weeks ago, Brooks is back on Zoysia grass in a PGA Championship and he could not be more primed to become only one of four people to win 4+ PGA Championships (Tiger, 4 - Jack, 5 - Hagan, 5). Make some history, Big Guy!
Placings ($65)
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10 (see Wyndham T10%/T5%). Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
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Matchups ($20)
THIS WEEK: Cameron Young over Sam Burns -115 (FanDuel)
The major track record speaks for itself. The closer Cameron Young climbs to the top of the leaderboard, the less likely Sam Burns has of catching him in a major. Burns has only one major top-20 in his career (T20) but five PGA Tour wins. He has struggled mightily in majors, while Cam Young has thrived. That top-10 rate is rather ridiculous, as Young looks to earn his sixth career major top-10.
LAST WEEK: Xander over Rory +105 (DraftKings)
"The fact that this bet is plus-money is the only reason we are really getting any value. Xander has been playing sensational golf this year, while Rory has only one top-20 on the PGA Tour this year, finishing third at the Valero, 9 shots back of the two leaders. Xander has seven top-10s in his ten starts this year, giving him an incredibly high floor at a venue he finished runner up last year!"
Of course the only person Xander gets beat by is the guy we had him in a matchup against... this $20 should have just gone to the top-10 for Xander which we felt was great value, yet only returned $10 back on that exposure, ultimately losing -$10 on Xander for the week despite him finishing 2nd... what. a. mess.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $255 +5101 (FanDuel)
We are swinging for the fences with this one but really like the chances of all five of our round one runners!!!
BONUS BET
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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