RADIO
We dialed back our budget for the American Express from $100 to $25 and I am very glad we did because an amateur landed up winning the tournament, with the golf outright community getting slapped with a third long shot check mate to begin the year. We placed one placement bet for Eric Cole to finish T20 and he bogey the last hole to finish T21 ... yup ... did we mention he started the round in T5?
We now head to a course that requires a very specific skill set to succeed. Either elite distance or elite accuracy is required to navigate cabbage-lined fairways that are 10 yards narrower than tour average. Pro's hit these fairways 50% of the time last year, so coming from the cabbage into firm greens with 5 irons can prove a task too tall for any PGA professional who doesn't gain tons of strokes in the short game department. It's just that simple. Some variation of elite ball striking or elite short game, will allow you to contend.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver" all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Prior Week Recap
Our Farewell Fiver went 1-3, Tom Kim, our lead outright, missed the cut and we already know what Eric Cole did to us. We had a gut feeling it would be a bad week and limited the damage. We did manage to hit JT Poston live on Friday morning to finish T20, while Nick Taylor over Matt Kuchar was derailed by Kuchar making eagles on Par 5s while Taylor was making pars. We head to Torrey Pines next!
Outrights ($20)
The odds market shifted incredibly quickly Monday afternoon as some steam came in on a few guys we grabbed early Monday morning. If you are interested in getting these picks as I make them on Mondays, jump into our premium discord where you will have access to my early bets and if you use code NEW on our platinum Package for only $17.40 a month. You will also have access to Spencer's picks as he makes them too along with EVERYTHING else Spence and our "double cup of Joes" have to offer to RotoBaller subscribers!
I have also made some adjustments to our allocation of funds to this market. We have hit two top-5s in the last three weeks but even when we were hitting the top-5, this part of the card was not profitable, so we have shifted some outright funds to the top-5 market to ensure that if we land up inside the top 5 this week, we walk away with a few bucks if we have to cover the outright spending spree.
Min Woo Lee $1.83 @ 30-1 (BetMGM) & $3.79 T5 +500 (BetMGM)
"Launch sequence engage in ... 10, 9, 8, 7, 6 ...!!! 5, 4, 3, 2, 1!!!!! Wooooooooo!" Over the last six months Min Woo Lee ranks as the sixth longest driver in this field, behind three KFT guys, Cam Champ and Gary Woodland. His iron play has typically been his biggest weakness of the four main strokes gained categories, which is okay, as he is likely going to be muscling out mid irons from the cabbage, while the rest of the field will be using 5 irons and hybrids from similar spots.
However, once he gets to the green, only Sahith Theegala has gained more strokes in the last half a year. For some golfers, having to chip is a sequence of events that they ultimately hope to not drop a shot. Min Woo? He sees that as an opportunity to chip it in and make birdie from spots that others would never imagine is possible. His putter can also get very hot, which helped him win two tournaments towards the end of last year in Asia and Australia. Speaking of Australians, Jason Day and Marc Leishman have both won this tournament in the past and hopefully the Wallaby Woozy Wizzard can cook us up a winner.
Keegan Bradley $1.57 @ 35-1 (FanDuel) & $3.16 T5 +600 (Bet365 <-- who are now paying TIES IN FULL!!!)
Keegan Bradley finished 2nd here last year while we were on him, only to have Max Homa have the best approach week of his career, by a significant margin to give the outright community a massive win. Keegan has just come off a playoff loss in Hawaii and hopefully he can keep that form heading into an event where he has three top-5 finishes and an additional T16 since 2017. His game is so well-rounded and can rely on any area of his game to get the job done this week, on a double redemption tour to avenge his runner up last year and the last time he teed it up.
Sahith Theegala $1.22 @ 45-1 (FanDuel) & $2.92 T5 +650 (Bet365)
Over the last six months, Sahith, is THEegala best around the green player in the field. His game is also rounding into some really good form, finishing 2nd at the Sentry to start of the year, ranking inside the top-10 for three of his four main categories. The one that now ranks 34th (OTT), he has improved drastically after a stretch in the summer where he lost strokes off the tee in six consecutive events. Since the Scottish Open, he has gained in six of eight events, with the two losing weeks losing only -0.05 and -0.19 per round. It is go time for Sahith, who will be looking to improve on his T4 finish here last year.
Sepp Straka $0.79 @ 70-1 (BetRivers) & $2.53 T5 +750 (Bet365)
In half of his last four appearances here, Sepp Straka has finished T16 and T13. Upon investigating his round-by-round numbers for his Farmers events, he has lost -2.5 on approach in a single round EVERY TIME he has played this event. He still has two top-20 finishes regardless of his irons nuking his chances once a week. IF, we can get those irons to not go rogue this time round, he could very quickly find himself contending for a win as he has driven it well here and has loved putting on the Poa greens. The potential is through the roof for our winner of the John Deere Classic in his "Diet Coke Iron Man Suit"!
Luke List $0.61 @ 90-1 (BetRivers) & $1.58 T5 +1200 (Bet365)
Only Jon Rahm and Cameron Champ have averaged more strokes off the tee around Torrey Pines than Luke List (5+ rounds minimum). When you are gaining a stroke per round off the tee at a course like this, it makes your floor exceptionally high. List, despite being one of the worst putters on tour for the longest time, has finished T40 or better in EVERY start here since 2018 including a win. To me, that is just too good of a track record to pass up on now that he has gained putting in five of his last seven starts. Six of his last eight starts have also been T25 or better. 90-1 is just to good of a number for somebody rounding into form heading to a golf course he has been sensational at for the better part of a decade.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($60)
$15 Sahith Theegala T20 +160 (BetMGM)
His two starts at this event have been a T4 last year and T25 back in 2022 when he was still just a young buck on tour.
$20 Luke List T40 +100 (BetMGM)
"has finished T40 or better in EVERY start here since 2018 including a win"
$10 Taylor Moore T40 +130 (Bet365)
Taylor Moore grades out really well for this course from a baseline perspective, while his recent form is starting to round out quite nicely. In four of his last six starts, Moore has gained over +0.62 per round with finishes of no worse than T25 in those events. Moore has also finished T11 and missed the cut in his two starts here.
$10 Adam Svensson T40 +115 (BetMGM)
The course history is not necessarily on his side, but he has never really had the ball striking prowess that he currently is exhibiting, grading out as my 8th best ball striker recently. The model kicked him out as a T20 bet at +250, but considering that he has finished T40 in 52% of his starts since 2023, +115 just felt like a bit of a safer bet.
$5 T20 Joseph Bramlett +750 (BetMGM)
The below tweet is referring to Brosef Joseph, who we are looking to capture some upside on at a course that really suits his game.
Matchups ($15)
$15 Adam Svensson over Emiliano Grillo -120 (DraftKings)
We get Adam Svensson playing some really good golf entering the week, with his long iron play and accuracy off the tee, hopefully enough to keep him ahead of Emiliano Grillo, who is not necessarily playing to his potential lately.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball Parlay $5 to win $100 (DraftKings)
Ludvig is an elite Round 1 scorer (2nd) and will be playing the easier North Course, essentially taking Hideki (56th) out of the equation on that kind of course, only having to take on Rose (75th) in R1. Peter Malnati plays incredibly well on the South course, while Adrian Meronk will be playing from Dubai to play an event that starts on Wednesday, with a rather lack luster track record on the south, Josh Teater has missed all four of his last PGA starts. Sepp Straka taking on Harris English on an easier North course as a bit of gut play, hoping he can get off to a fast start in the week.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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