RADIO
Since the last edition of this article, Scottie Scheffler has gone on to completely dominate the world of golf, winning the RBC Heritage the week after slipping on his second green jacket! An incredible run of upside on a variety of courses against the PGA's best. It is rather fitting that Rory's 25th PGA win and Lowry's first on US soil come with both of them straddling either side of a decade in the win column.
Lowry last won in America in 2015, roughly 9 years ago, while Rory has eclipsed the decade mark and just miserably failed at attaining the green jacket that keeps him out the history books - history books that supersede the property lines of Augusta - history books that only requires five lines to list: Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Gene Sarazen ... winners of the Modern Grand Slam. Something that, likely, will evade McIlroy for the rest of his career. However, now that the Masters is behind him, WATCH OUT! Rory is about to try take back his jungle ... until the lead up to the Masters next year!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of Last Week
We absolutely crushed the in tournament props and kept ourselves afloat with the placement market profiting just north of the $15 we need to cover our Outrights and Farewell Fiver, which are 15% of our budget each week, but were it to hit, we would find ourselves almost certainly profiting that week! It's a game of patience over the long run!
✅Breaking $100 @RBC_Heritage : +$47 profit
Pre-Event (+$4.40)
❌Outrights (-$10)
✅Placements (+$19.40)
❌Farewell Fiver 3-ball parlay (-$5)Live Bets with @btngolf (+$42.67)
✅R1 Cam Young over 4.5 birdies (+$10)
✅R2 Matt Fitzpatrick over 3.5 birdies (+$10)
❌R2 Fitz T10… https://t.co/K2cHTK09M2— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) April 22, 2024
Outrights ($10)
Before we get into the outright selections, we found a market that gives us ridiculously good outright odds, BUT, you have to double down on your investment and also place the same amount on a top-3 each way bet that is 1/5th the odds of the outright. The outright odds are significantly better and as a result we can get to 7.5X return on our $10 investment which includes some runner up insurance while still paying out a decent chunk if we hit the winner. But if we hit the top-3 on one of these guys, we make our entire investment back and add $3-$5 to our profit column for a rather small insurance fee when you think about the outright odds we are still getting.
We have had EIGHT (50% of the 16 events this year) top-3s we have bet to win so far, and it is mind numbing to think we only have 1 win on the season. Top 3 finishes we have had on the outright card this year:
- Sahith Theegala (Sentry 2nd)
- Byeong Hun An (Sony - 2nd in 3-way playoff)
- Will Zalatoris (Genesis - top 3)
- Jake Knapp (Mexico - WIN)
- Wyndham Clark (API - 2nd)
- Wyndham Clark (PLAYERS - t2 chopped 1 place)
- Brian Harman (PLAYERS - t2 chopped 1 place ... but we had Wyndham too ... eye roll)
- Sahith Theegala (RBC Heritage - T2)
If you don't have access to this market, I have you covered in the below image for investments in normal outrights at the best numbers out there (https://www.oddschecker.com/us/golf/the-cj-cup/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/winner)
Byeong Hun An $3
All you need to know about Byeong Hun An is the fact that he popped up on the list above, losing in a playoff by missing a 4-footer to extend it after Grayson Murray of all people made a 40-foot bomb to force Benny to miss his. A disaster early in the season after Sahith finished 2nd at the Sentry to Chris Kirk... Benny's putter has been a bit of mess the last three starts, but all he needs is for his broomstick to return and the ball striking he possess (5th) will be excitedly idling in the Texas shadows as his incredibly explosive long iron play will translate well to this layout. An has finished T20 in 1/3rd of his starts this year and two second place finishes since the Wyndham Championship. We have invested in him heavily to win this year, so we are going to keep going back to the well!
KH Lee $1.82
This is more so a price grab than really liking the overall prospect of KH Lee entering the week. The two-time winner of this event was priced significantly higher than other past winners or course horses here. Commonly known as "TPC Lee" on the X (twitter) streets, has not been in the most consistent form this year, but he does have two top-10 finishes in the last two months at the Cognizant and the Valspar. That kind of spike potential recently, heading to a course where he is the best version of himself, gaining heavily on the ball-striking front here all three instances of the event he will be looking to win for the third time for us!
Tom Kim $2.28
This is a simple bet for us on one of our usual suspects in the outright market, as Tom Kim has won three events on the PGA Tour, coming at only two courses which are both comp correlations to TPC Craig Ranch (TPC Summerlin & Sedgefield CC). Kim had not gained more than a stroke putting in any event this year until the Valero, three starts ago. He gained +1.6 in just the two rounds he played on route to a missed cut at the Valero and then gained over five at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. His ball striking can be elite when he is feeling it and now that we are back in Texas where he has made his home base as professional, the signs are pointing towards our Netflix star we have hit for outrights in two of his three victories the last two years.
Ryan Fox $1.06
The reason Ryan Fox is on the PGA Tour is because he has played well enough on the DPWT the last year to earn his card. In his prior tour years on Euro soil, Fox found the winning hole three times and establishing himself as an up-and-coming star on the PGA Tour having earned his card after seven years on the DPWT. However, the Fox struggled to feel comfortable once his penguin feet (at address) touched US soil. He has more DPWT wins in the last two years (3) than he has top-30s in stroke play events (ZERO).
HOWEVER, we will start a new paragraph here in a metaphorical effort to encourage Fox to start an anticipated run of success on tour. He partnered up with Garrick Higgo at the Zurich Classic last week and in the alternate shot format they flew up the leaderboard to T4. Fox is an extremely talented golfer, and maybe, just maybe, the little bit of confidence he gained last week catapults him to his first win on this side of the Atlantic. Fox has shown a lot of promise in round 1 (29th in SG) while his other rounds rank 77th, 126th and 58th in rounds 2, 3 and 4. A little bit of confidence should see that R1 strokes gained spill over into the Texas fairways for four straight days. What does the Fox say?
Garrick Higgo $0.86
Fox's partner deserves as much credit for finding him on the card this week despite an abysmal track record so far this year. We have seen many golfers find some form after the team event that shows them the potential their game possesses. Higgo has won on the PGA Tour before and multiple times on the DPWT. He has a baseline of foreign success that has not translated well to the US side (outside of his win at the Palmetto in 2021). One of these two partners finds success this week after a rough start to the year. Higgo actually grades out really well for me
Peter Kuest $0.98
My long-term numbers on Kuest have him ranked 18th in my model with a T10 and T9 at the Valero and Corales Puntacana after missing the majority of his cuts on the KFT this year. His long iron play from his starts on tour in 2023 are getting him the love our model wants to portray to us. He is also a really impressive driver of the ball with tons of distance which will trickle into accuracy when clubbing down on some holes. The main reason we are going on this Kuest is because my co-host and fellow RotoBaller PGA colleague, Spencer (you know him if you reading this regularly), is on a complete heater this year, and convinced me on the show to pull the trigger on him along with Higgo!
Placings ($85)
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
If you are looking for this kind of information on golfers that are not in this screenshot, my full model is available >>>HERE<<< when you upgrade to our premium packages. Code maniac is going to save you 10% when signing up and really helps me out too!
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $135.33 (FanDuel)
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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