RADIO
Another week, another long shot winner in the form of 160-1 Austin Eckroat. These long shots are making me want to take shots ... of very strong alcohol. This has been such a wild start to the season as hitting Knapp in Mexico at 40-1 was the shortest winner in the first two months of PGA golf. We continue to search for winners, though, and we really like the seven guys on our card this week.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational gives us the tour's very best golfers once again teeing it up together in an elevated event with only 69 golfers looking to make the cut, which is the top 50 and those within 10 strokes of the lead. We never expected that to really impact the Genesis, but some really big names landed up not playing the weekend despite having the deck stacked in their favor.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
FSWA Golf Writer of the Year
This. Is. Insane. 🤯
So many people to thank, but without @TeeOffSports & @JoeNicely this is simply not a reality!!! 🙏🙌 Being a part of the @RotoBaller team has been a MASSIVE blessing!!! @AlexBlickle1 and @gdula13 do amazing work, and as they said on the show, the golf… https://t.co/agLpEJc6o7
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) February 28, 2024
I repeat. This. Is. Insane. Its been a week since this news graced my African earlobes and with it came an amazing outpouring of congratulatory tweets, messages and phone calls. I want to just say thank you to EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. OF. YOU. who are reading this, as without you, this is simply not possible as I would have nobody to write for. Your support in my two years of writing here at RotoBaller cannot be appreciated enough! Thank you, thank you, thank YOU!
It has been the best time working at RotoBaller since Spencer and Joe accepted my application and we hit the ground running. They have been instrumental throughout that time, with support, guidance and friendship that I treasure dearly. I know it is cliche, but their fingerprints are all over my award! Spencer also has his fingerprints on his own FSWA award from 2021 and Joe being nominated for this too a couple years ago, with both of them doing work that could easily have taken my place on the list.
Personally, I have never worked harder towards anything in my life than to bring the best articles, podcasts and X information. It has been countless late nights, early mornings and everything in between that had me absolutely exhausted at times, but because I LOVE what I do, it has been so easy to empty the gas tank on pursuing my dream of one day doing this full time. I really hope that if you are in a spot like I was three or so years ago, punching in and out of my 9-5 with little ambition, you find something in your life that gives you energy and pursue that wholeheartedly in whatever capacity you find comfortable and sustainable. With a bit of luck, sweat and tears, who knows what is possible if you dedicate yourself to succeeding in that passion or hobby!
Finally, Mrs. Maniac! When I told her about the award and thanked her for supporting me and sacrificing many nights that we once had free, I told her how much I appreciated all that she has done for me through this journey. She replied, "You are most welcome and thank you for not sucking at it!" LoL ... I guess I had never thought about it that way. Fortunately, I have had a reasonable amount success doing all this and her saying it in that way really made me realize how lucky I am to be in my current situation. Let's continue to have an awesome 2024 and win some golf bets!!!
Recap of Last Week
It was a rather disastrous week for us from a pre-tournament perspective, but fortunately our in tournament live adds kept us afloat, albeit a little unsustainably, if I am being completely honest. Hitting Erik Van Rooyen at +4000 for the lowest round 4 score was a great way to end the tournament. I used my round 4 showdown model to arrive at that decision, which is available to our premium subs. The last few weeks of placement bets have been a little rough for us, but we are hoping we can bounce this week.
📈📉Breaking $100 @the_cognizant: +$39.24 profit
Pre-Tournament (-$79.22)
❌Outrights (-$10): Pavon, Novak, Pan...
🥶Placements (-49.23)
- Horschel T40 +115 ✅
- 14 of 15 placements (see notes) ❌
🙃Matchup (-$15)
- Ben An (T21) over Min Woo (2nd) ...
👋Farewell Fiver Parlay… https://t.co/UGtXTnafm5— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 6, 2024
Outrights ($10)
The outright market is becoming like a battle royal throughout the course of a Monday, with crowd favorites getting tossed out of the ring before the majority of bettors can get their hands on fair outright numbers. It is becoming more and more important to have your research done before the week begins so that you can pounce on any numbers before the likes of Jake Knapp are hammered from 90-1 all the way down to 60 in the space of a few hours. I do a Sunday Night Research Stream at 9ET, where I deep dive into the most likely winners for the upcoming week. After the show ends, I add time stamps for each golfer that was covered so you can use it as a research tool if listening to me for 3.5 hours is not your cup of tea (I commend those of you who do... LoL)
If you are interested in getting these picks as I make them on Mondays, jump into our premium discord, where you will have access to my early bets if you use code MANIAC to save yourself 10%. You will also have access to Spencer's picks as he makes them, too, along with EVERYTHING else Spence and our "double cup of Joes" have to offer to RotoBaller subscribers!
My fingers must hate me as we once again are engaging eight, blitzing the odds board hoping to get home to the Arnold Palmer quarterback. The common theme with these seven selections (+ some space for a live add) is their ball striking prowess with five of them inside the top-20 in ball striking this year, while the other two having finished 2nd in either of the last two tournaments. All seven of them are top-20 in driving distance, which makes getting out of the thick rough that much easier as they are using a club with more loft than most of the field, while also having the swing speed to muscle their balls out the cabbage.
Will Zalatoris $1.98 (35-1 FanDuel)
Will Zalatoris is the shortest option on our card at 35-1 and despite disappearing when he turns sideways, his spaghetti frame can generate some serious club head speed which is of major importance at the Bay Hill Club & Cabbage patch. Throwing a little cabbage into Will's spaghetti has proven to be a recipe for success as he has lost in a playoff at the Famers Insurance Open, which has a very similar type of penalty for missed fairways with its very thick rough and long iron approach shots. Bay Hill does have a little more water than Torrey but Zalatoris has typically driven the ball exceptionally well here, gaining roughly 5 strokes off the tee in each of his last two starts.
He has also gained on approach in all three appearances here, adding a few extra cabbage-fed meatballs to the bowl for ball striking excellence at this event and entering the week with finishes of T2 at The Genesis and T13 at the Farmers in his last two starts. In his three meals here, we overcooked the noodles on the green in all three instances, losing an abundance of sauce to the field on and around the putting surface. However, he has been really impressive with the broomstick putter to start the year, so much so that those who are looking at his stats without context may call him an impasta (I had to). At 35-1 we are afforded a bowl of world class ingredients that are due to win their second tournament at a course that plays to his strengths in a big way.
Min Woo Lee $1.26 (55-1 FanDuel)
I stumbled across the Zalatoris spaghetti metaphor before realizing that our next outright selection is the Chef himself, Min Woo Lee. Now, let it be know off the bat, I think the whole let him cook thing is a little overblown, but after he finished 2nd last week we FOMO'd (fear of missing out) a bet on him at 55-1. The reason for his success last week was playing the 12 par 5s -14 under par, which was his finishing score for the tournament. We now add an additional par 5 to the mix, giving him an extra hole to cook with his immense power with his driver, woods and long irons. It is critical to score on the Par 5s, as you are just trying to keep your head above and out the water on all the other holes. The Chef, on this course, will produce a feast or famine set of results, making this our only exposure to him in betting and DFS markets.
Wyndham Clark $1.23 (60-1 FanDuel)
The winner of two signature events and a major in the last 10 months gets slapped with a 60-1 price tag. Clark has the fifth most distance off the tee in this field and ranks 2nd in weighted green in regulation rates. If he can get the driver dialed in and hit a few more fairways this week, the rest of his game is very much suited for this golf course. Clark is built more like a penne noodle, with strength and stature that could see him overpower this course after mixing in some Bermuda bolognaise putting stats, having the fifth-most success on the greens that Florid courses serve up. Clark also tends to keep slippery meatballs in the bowl better than most, ranking sixth in bogey avoidance and par 5 scoring entering the week. A lot to like about our Penne Prince!
Byeong Hun An $0.94 (80-1 FanDuel)
Byeong Hun An's power has him one spot behind Clark in driving distance (6th) while his spicy around-the-green play (14th) adds some heat to his 80-1 bowl of guksu Korean noodles. The Koreans typically serve their noodles in a very simple manner, which could describe the reason we like Benny this week. Since moving to the Broomstick he has had tons of success putting on Bermuda greens, gaining strokes in Hawaii, before struggling a little on the West Coast. An has four finishes of 4th or better in his last 11 starts and had a T10 and T14 here in 2019 and 2018, hopefully microwaving that performance to get hot enough to win it this time around.
Kurt Kitayama $0.89 (80-1 FanDuel)
Kurt Kitayama returns to defend his title at Bay Hill and also has the best recent ball striking of all our outright candidates this year, ranking 8th when combining the strokes gained off the tee and on approach in 2024. Kurt "Calzone" Kitayama is a meal that can be whipped up in an instant when the urge for a meaty microwavable meal arrives. He hasn't missed a cut since July and just had an 8th-place finish at the WMPO. As is the case with any microwaved meal, there is always a chance biting into it can burn the buds right off your tongue, as Kurt's form has been hot and cold lately. But, if the short game can spark up at a course he dominated on and around the greens, we should be in business.
Jake Knapp $0.77 (90-1 FanDuel)
If the swing of Jake Knapp could be bottled it would be the most smooth and flavorful sauce known to man. His delicious distance off the tee and pristine approach play could serve up the best result of his PGA tour career, which would eclipse the win he had in Mexico. He handled the heat of getting paired with Macaroni McIlroy for three days, ultimately outlasting him and going on to finish T4 at the Cognizant the week after his Mexican masterclass. Over the last 16 rounds, Knapp has wrapped up tee-to-green brilliance (3rd) that could serve up a Bay Hill burrito filled with sizzling iron play, prosciutto putting and powerful flavor that may just win another tournament if he is in the mood.
Luke List $0.63 (110-1 FanDuel)
Luke List has had finishes of T10, T7 and T17 in his first three starts around Bay Hill. His putter was poisonous in 2022 and 2023 leaving any of those that consumed him on the floor in the fetal position. Most of his starts here have had really impressive ball striking numbers, which, when paired with the incredible iron play and resurgent putting we saw in his second-place finish at the Genesis two starts ago, makes for a really appetizing entre. What the entre is, not I, nor Luke knows, as he could serve up disaster or delicacy. But at 110-1 we can afford to take a nibble and find out.
LIVE ADD $2.31 (30-1 ??? 2 x 60-1??)
The wind and weather in Florida is a rigatoni roulette wheel, never knowing what comes out the oven. We are hopefully going to try take advantage of golfers going off in a window of relative calmness, ideally in the morning when the course is softest. There are going to be some really talented golfers who inevitably hit a ball or two into the water early in the event, making their odds a little more palatable in hopes that once we add a little parmesan to that price, they start making their way up the leaderboard in the scorable conditions and give us a chance at a W come Sunday afternoon. Stay tuned to the RotoBaller discord or my X account (@TheModelManiac) to follow along when we pull the trigger on those bets.
Placings ($85)
We are rocking with a mixed bag
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
The yellow columns are the dollars lost or won in the last 12 months, and the green column is the rate at which a golfer finishes in each respective position tier.
Matchups ($0)
No matchups this week.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 Matchup Parlay to win $109.17 (DraftKings)
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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