RADIO
If it puts into perspective how hard it is to have picked a winner last week at Pebble Beach, Justin Rose's golf ball was blowing around on the green and left him "patiently" waiting for a resolution on the matter while other golfers continued to get lambasted by the winds of the Monterey Peninsula. Wind wreaked havoc across all three courses and left many of the favorites stranded on windy, bogey-filled islands. We knew this would be the case, which is why we went with a few more long shots, but all of those got blown away too.
Rose displayed a level of comfort at the front of the pack that can be attributed to his 25 world-wide victories, including a major. He handled each treacherous scenario with wit, wisdom and a wealth of experience that many rookies on tour would offer their next two year's paychecks for. It did help that he made the majority of the putts he looked at, gaining 2.5 strokes on the Poa greens in R4 which spanned across Sunday and Monday.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights
If you are interested in tailing along as soon as I place my bets, join our discord, where I share my picks as I make them, along with entertaining any other questions and conversations taking place there throughout the week. By the time I get to writing this article, odds have often shortened to varying degrees, so if you are interested in following along with the best numbers, jump into that discord. This week, we have three outrights that range from 25-1 to 33-1. We will be spending $15 to net $130 or more.
***Before we dive into the outrights, I just want to address our horrible run of results since the season started. It is typically the worst time of the year for me betting wise, as we know the lack of sustained data affects the model, especially with so many new golfers graduating from the KFT tour and have done our best to limit our exposure to bets along the way.
On top of the lack of seasoned stats, I discovered last night that my model has been pulling in SG Total data instead of SG OTT which is roughly 5-15% of my model settings each week. I have no idea if that is what has caused such poor results, or if its a combination of the two, but we can hopefully expect things to turn around here soon.
If you want more on my analysis of results and overall track record since I began betting, feel free to check out my podcast I did last night about the struggles of the fall swing, and general strategies to overcome these kinds of down turns. I will be going over all the bets you read in the rest of the article on tonight's (Tuesday) podcast at 7 ET here.
Collin Morikawa ($5.62 @ +2500)
Starting off his calendar year with a 2nd and a 3rd place finish gives us the feeling that Collin Morikawa has recharged, reflected, and reestablished himself over the break as one of the best golfers in the world. He has always had an impeccable ball striking repertoire that should keep him away from the watery danger that lurks on a third of the holes around this desert track.
What is even more exciting about Mr. Morikawa is that he has gained +7.07 strokes putting in the 7 recorded rounds that led him to those two top-3 finishes. He has typically been a poor putter over the course of his career, averaging a measly +0.09 on the greens in his best year. What we do know about Collin, is that he tends to putt better in majors, and can almost consider this week as one being the first full-field elevated event of the year.
TPC Scottsdale is one of the most predictive courses for success based off course history. Those that have succeeded here in the past, will most likely do it again this week. King Collin finished T25 in his only showing over the last five years, losing 5 strokes on the greens. His ball striking will typically always be there, and if the putter can join the party along with the rest of the crowd, we should have a clear shot at victory in Phoenix.
Tony Finau ($5.11 @ +2500)
It feels so much better deleting Andrew Putnam's name from last week's cloned paragraph and adding Tony Finau who is only a few points shy of what we bet Putnam at. Tony had one of his worst putting performances at Torrey, losing 5 strokes in Round 1. He managed to overcome that with worldclass ball striking and still make the cut, soaring up the leaderboard with a tournament best -8 on Saturday and then whittled away on Sunday.
Course history matters here, and Tony provides a curious track record. He has three missed cuts in four of five starts, but lost in a playoff two appearances ago. When he is playing good golf, TPC Scottsdale is no match for Tony. If we can continue to strike the ball like we have become accustomed to and maybe make a few putts ... like we have become accustomed to ... Finau will notch his fourth win in less than a year and give us some more "duggie" victory dances on social media.
Tom Kim ($2.78 @ +3000)
Tom Kim finds himself in his first full-field premier event since winning twice on tour. He ranks first in my model and that is courtesy of his alien-like accuracy off the tee and world class iron play. Gaining strokes off the tee can be done by booming drives or hitting every fairway, and Tom has been playing from the middle of the fairway on 73% of his approaches this season (4th in the field).
Kim has won on courses he has never played before, making this week no different. He has an incredible short game and when he finds himself in contention, he tends to become one of the best putters in the field. With his combination of elite ball striking and sensational short game, look for Tom to shine bright when the pressure is on over the weekend, and in a field as loaded as this, maybe we get Presidents Cup Tom, who was an absolute joy to watch take on the world's best.
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Placings
Matthew Fitzpatrick decided to tee it up at Pebble last week despite disclosing an injury he had suffered to his neck. This information came out after we pounced on what seemed like a misprice for the majority of the T20 on DraftKings.
Last week's results -$23:
- Matt Fitzpatrick +105 T20 -$20 MC
- Matt Kuchar +200 T20 -$3.33 MC
- Brendon Todd +280 T20 +$9.33 T2 (almost won the tournament)
- Andrew Putnam +175 T20 -$3.33 MC
- Matthew NeSmith +125 T40 -$3.33 T55
- Russell Knox +125 T40 -$3.33 T41...
- Nick Taylor +120 T40 +$4 T20
- Ben Griffin +100 T40 -$3.33 MC (tough to bounce back from a 10 in R1)
This week's bets:
- Tom Kim +150 T20 $5
- Tommy Fleetwood +120 T40 $5
- Shane Lowry +115 T20 $5
- Adam Svensson +250 T40 $5
The model suggested we play Tom Hoge for T40, but I just don't feel comfortable betting him right now as his consistency is just not there at +120. Svensson is basically wracking up the same amount of T40s at double the odds, which we like.
Matchups
My favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets that can be placed, and you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut. We are back to honing in on a golfer who the books love a lot more than we do.
Not only did the two guys we bet against Pendrith fail to do anything of substance, Taylor Pendrith finished T7 at a course that he had no business playing well at, with recent form of T60 and MC to begin the year. He gained the 4th most strokes putting over the two recorded rounds. Just brutal stuff lately. We are going to bounce back! We really are!
- Matthew NeSmith over Taylor Pendrith +100 (DraftKings): -$5
- Matt Kuchar over Taylor Pendrith -118 (FanDuel): -$5.90
This week we do like Kim over Young at +108 on FanDuel. If you take a look at their recent results on US soil, Young has been rather steadily finishing inside the top-30 but with no result better than T13. Tom Kim on the other hand has finished T6, MC, T5, WIN, T11 in his last five starts. We will take Kim in a matchup at plus-money here.
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors, which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200, which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
The Players
Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright, and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.
The Masters
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight-up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination, and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
Top 10: Patrick Cantlay +210
Last week's Farewell Fiver was Jordan Spieth who had his worst finish at this event of T63. Woof. Let's hope for a turnaround this week. Patrick Cantlay leads the field with 53% of his starts resulting in T10s. He also finished 2nd here last year in his only appearance. Let's go Cantlay. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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