Breaking $100 - Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2023 Valero Texas Open

Golf is an incredibly exciting sport, filled with volatility, twists and turns, and when your success solely relies on the one golfer you are matched up with who seemingly refuses to miss any putts, people like Cameron Young can leave the event feeling deflated as they were simply on the wrong side of a hot putter. On the other hand, Sam Burns poured in putts from all area codes of the Austin metropolitan for seven straight rounds, dismantling some of the games most explosive players on route to his first Match Play Championship and now ranks inside the top-10 in the World.

It is sad that match play will be scrapped from the schedule and I really hope that it makes a return sooner than later. However, I hope it's return involves a lot more golfers on TV on a Sunday, with only four matches throughout the course of an entire Sunday, leaving even me, one of the most diehard fans of the game, watching Matt Wallace win Puntacana instead of tuning in to the afternoon rounds. There is an ideal format that can embrace the chaos of the sweet 16 while still garnering our attention for the remainder of the event. The tour just needs to make that change when this hopefully returns to our TVs.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Real Talk

This article and golf betting has been a pride and joy of mine since I started a few years ago. I have had great success in the betting market from day 1 and have yet to really experience a down turn in results, until now... The last time we had a winner featured in this piece was almost six months ago. It has been 18 events since we have hit a winner. I no longer feel proud of the picks I put out there and even more so, not having hit a winner in almost half a year has sucked most of the joy out of betting golf for me (at least the last few weeks).

I am an extremely sympathetic and compassionate person, who enjoys seeing those around me succeed. But, seeing my twitter friends share their winners on Sunday afternoon week after week with me watching the party go on without me, is something that becomes harder and harder to do with each passing week. We then have to wake up on a Monday and do it all again despite feeling like a winner may never come again.

When it comes to gambling/betting on golf, there are so many variables and good breaks that are required to hit a winner. I understand this. There are also periods of "variance" that a bettor can find themself on the wrong side of, despite having found the best player/value on the board that week. There are also instances where you need to assess the process and determine if it is working or if it needs to be changed. As I sit here now, these are questions I have been asking myself the last few weeks. Am I unlucky? Am I bad at picking winners? Could it be both?

Well, as I always do, when in doubt, what do the numbers have to say? I shamelessly had to update my tracking file all the way back to the Genesis, as I have not had any motivation to see the crap that I would be pasting in there every week since. The numbers match my level of disappointment but there is hope at the end of the tunnel at least. This is what I found.

In the 2023 season these are outright bets that have finished in the top 5. We have had two runner up finishes, three 3rd places, and three 4th place finishes. What this tells me is that I am not TERRIBLE at picking who is going to give themself a shot at winning. In the 18 events that we have been drier than a nun's "you know what", we have had a guy finish top 5 half the time (9). To me, that suggests that we just have to keep plugging away.

Another thing to consider, is the fact that four of the eight events listed above were won by either Jon Rahm or Scottie Scheffler. Their emergence as victorious freight trains has made capitalizing on the weeks when they don't play even more important. I have typically bet on outrights to return 10x investment, but when both of them are listed at single digits to win the event, they are unbettable.

Having bet Max Homa 5 times (of his 10 starts) this season and not been on him when he won 2 of the other 5 starts is also something that has been excruciatingly frustrating. Maybe I need to stick with certain golfers for longer, as I usually have a good read on them, but are jumping on and off too much from event to event? Or maybe things will just balance themselves out over time?

I felt compelled to share this with you, as I don't want to pretend like everything is unicorns and rainbows over here. I am VERY frustrated and at least relaying those emotions to you, allows me to continue writing this article with a lot less shame and pessimism that I have felt publishing the last few weeks' worth of content. We are doing the right stuff, we just need one or two things to break our way. Sob story over. Let's get to some outrights shall we?

Outrights

If you are interested in tailing along as soon as I place my bets, join our discord, where I share my picks as I make them, along with entertaining any other questions and conversations taking place there throughout the week. By the time I get to writing this article, odds have often shortened to varying degrees, so if you are interested in following along with the best numbers, jump into that discord.

It's the week before Augusta and by my calculations only 9 guys in the field are certain to tee it up next week. The rest of them are all vying for an opportunity to walk through the magnolias with a win at The Valero Texas Open. We have five golfers who we like to win it all down in Texas for the Valero Texas Open. We have 5 guys who we will be spending $15 of our $100 budget on in hopes of returning roughly $128 if either of them wins.

Chris Kirk ($4.50 @ +3100 on FanDuel)

Chris Kirk has been playing some really impressive golf lately, winning the Honda Classic which saw him capitalize on his short game that has continued to be the 6th best in the field this week. He is also the 7th best iron player in the field over the last 24 rounds and is an average driver of the ball, with a lack of distance often resulting in lost strokes to the field. He ranks inside the top-35 in driving accuracy and good drives gained.

Kirk also likes to tango in Texas, with finishes of T35, T6, MC, T8 in his last four starts at the Valero. He has gained off the tee in 7 consecutive starts at TPC San Antonio, while gaining handsomely on approach in 7/8 of his career starts. It has usually been the putter that has derailed any chances of success, which seems to have rectified itself of late, making for an excitingly boring bag of skills that Chris will look to bring to the table in search of his second win of the season.

Matt Kuchar ($1.23 @ +3100 on BetRivers)

"All you need to know about Matt Kuchar is that you should not be fooled by his age, as he is still extremely competitive and will be teeing it up at a golf course that won't punish is lack of length off the tee, while giving him ample opportunity to put his seasoned short game to the test hole after hole", was what I wrote about the old fox heading into last week's match play, where he managed advance to the Sweet 16, only to lose to a surging Jason Day.

There is a method to our madness with Kuchar, as he has shown the propensity to have an extremely sticky course history over the many years on tour. Kuchar has made the cut at this event in his last 10 starts, with 7 of those being top 25 finishes, and three of them T7 or better. Kuchar seems to have bounced back in 2023, playing much better golf so far. Both his approach play and off the tee numbers are the best they have been since 2019 and 2017 respectively.

The short game has been hot and cold for Kuch, particularly through the Florida swing, but we know he loves himself some Texas golf, evidenced by last week's performance and his stellar course history here. If he can continue to ball strike it the way he has in 2023, all we need is that tidy Texas touch on and around the greens to have a real shot at taking down the Valero and sneaking his way into the Masters.

Nick Taylor ($2.35 @ +6000 on DraftKings)

Since going toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler at the WM Phoenix Open, Nick Taylor's putter has cooled off a little particularly through the elevated events in the Florida swing. He finished T10 at the Valspar two starts ago and struggled to escape his pod at match play. One thing that has remained constant throughout his season which will be important this week, is his short game that ranks 7th in the field over the last 24 rounds.

Taylor's approach play has been steady and impressive this season, with his worst recent performance coming at the water infested PLAYERS Championship. He averaged a stroke on approach at the Valspar and will look to continue that level of iron play heading into the Valero. Taylor has three top 10 finishes in nine starts this calendar year. He absolutely has the potential to put himself in contention in a weaker field, at a course that should reward his well-rounded game and rather impressive form.

Sam Ryder ($2.14 @ +6600 on BetRivers)

This is going to be one paragraph worth of explaining why Sam Ryder is on our card. He is THE BEST putter in the world over the last 36 rounds. He is averaging 0.2 strokes more than Maverick McNealy who is also an INSANE putter of the ball. His recent approach play has been rather poor, but we will blame that on the Flordia swing. If he resorts back to his baseline of being the 17th best player in weighted approach proximities to match this course, his combination of putting and iron play can set TPC San Antonio ablaze!

Davis Thompson - WITHDREW ($2.01 @ +7000 on  BetRivers)

Davis Thompson is 70-1 because there is a lot to be desired with the irons. However, he has gained with his putter in the last three starts, is usually pretty tidy around the greens and gains just shy of 3 strokes per event off the tee.

The reason for his inclusion on the card is his Par 5 scoring! TPC San Antonio's soft underbelly is its par 5s which is where most of the birdies come from throughout the week, as 12 of the 18 holes have birdie rates that are below 16%. If Thompson can dominate the Par 5s like he has done this season, and survive the 12 tougher holes, he should find himself flirting with the lead come Sunday.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Placings

We bounced back with $35.42 worth of profit in the placement (advance from pod) market last week, which secured profit for us despite not hitting a winner or cashing our Farewell Fiver. 3 of 8 golfers made it through to the Sweet 16, with all three of them failing to advance to the Elite 8 (sad trombone). We played the numbers game and it paid off, until we were wiped off the board Saturday morning.

Last week's results $35.42:

• Max Homa +140 +$22.44
• Corey Conners +225 -$11.84
• Sahith Theegala +250 -$10.99
• Seamus Power +280 -$10.12
• Matt Kuchar +350 +$29.93
• Harris English +360 -$8.36
• Maverick McNealy +400 -$7.69
• Lucas Herbert +500 +$32.05

This week we are going to roll out 12 placement bets but at $5 each to total $60. There are two golfers with +300 odds who can really go a long way in securing profit for us, but we are looking for about 4 or 5 of the 12 guys to cash in order to break even depending on which bet cashes.

• Matt Kuchar T20 +140
• Chris Kirk T20 +155
• Brendon Todd T20 +240
• Ben Griffin T20 +225
• Thomas Detry T20 +220
• Robby Shelton T20 +330
• Sam Ryder T40 +100 (Maniac Override 777)
• Eric Cole T40 +175
• Ryan Moore T40 +320
• Byeong Hun An T40 +120
• Erik Van Rooyen T40 +220

Matchups

Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets that can be placed, and you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut.

This is also part of the reason why I am so frustrated with betting. The books have essentially voided the matchup market with the lines they are putting out there. I just got done plugging in 20+ matchups into the model and no matchups were kicked out. In fact, you could add 30 points to any side of the matchup and we still wouldn't have an edge on a single bet.

Gone are the days where the model kicked out multiple matchups a week. We either need to come up with a new strategy or we need to double down on the bets that do get kicked out as edge. However, because we want to start enjoying betting again, we are going to take on Hideki Matsuyama with Taylor Montgomery at -112.

$20 Taylor Montgomery over Hideki Matsuyma -112 (FanDuel)

Hideki withdrew from the match play with a stiff neck, as a precaution for the Masters. He is still slated to play this week and has not been playing all that well when he does play. Montgomery provides incredible T20 equity in a field like this, so if Hideki manages to drag his niggly neck through 4 rounds of golf, he is still going to have beat Montgomery. However, there is nobody more likely in this field to WD than Hideki, and we are banking on that happening after a round or two.

A Look Into The Future

With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors, which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200, which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.

The Masters

Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)

If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight-up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.

His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination, and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.

(I probably should have time stamped this, but this piece was written for the Sanderson Farms article, 6 months ago: Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship | Fantasy News (rotoballer.com))

The Farewell Fiver

Christiaan Bezuidenhout T10 +600

Scottie Scheffler missed a 5-foot putt to potentially get into the championship match, which is all we wanted to cash our inaugural "outright Farewell Fiver". So close. Bezzy is going to be our farewell fiver, as he has changed coaches recently and looked really impressive on approach at the Players immediately after. He sucks at match play, so we are going to ignore that performance and count on his reliability around the greens to finish T10 for us. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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