Breaking $100: Free PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - 2023 Mexico Open

My good friend and the creator of this “Breaking $100” article, Byron Lindeque, has apparently never watched the classic baseball movie Bull Durham, a film in which the wise and all-knowing Crash Davis, played by Kevin Costner, implores his young pitcher to “Never fu*# with a winning streak.”

It appears as though our boy Byron has elected to ignore the awesome advice of late-’80s Costner (who I’m convinced possessed all the nuggets of wisdom needed to live a great life) because after nailing an outright pick for this article in the form of Nick Hardy and Davis Riley at last week’s Zurich Classic, Lindeque has decided that this is the perfect time to go on vacation. What a rookie move. While I understand that Byron’s parents flew in from South Africa to visit this week, there are times when you just gotta explain to mom and dad that they’ll need to catch the next plane back to Cape Town, because you’re in the midst of a PGA heater. They are lovely folks and would totally understand.

So, while young Byron and the family are off drinking Castle Lagers and pedaling their bicycles through the cornfields of Iowa or whatever, here I am, ready to grind. While I could easily advise you to just lay down this week’s entire allotted C-Note on Jon Rahm in a true "set it and forget" strategy that's probably not a bad line to take, that feels a bit too relaxed, too laissez-faire, too LINDEQUE-ISH. Unwilling to take the easy road, I’ve dusted off my calculator and my syllabus to pinch hit for my man in an edition of Breaking $100 that, despite all my hard work, will most definitely pale in comparison to the witty and sharp PGA analysis that Byron’s regular readers have grown accustomed to. Everybody knows the rules laid out by The Model Maniac... 100 bucks spread out among outrights, placings, matchups, and a "Farewell Fiver". My head already hurts from the math this is gonna require. No matter how tough the challenge of filling Byron's shoes is, if we hit a winner for this less-than-stellar Mexico Open event, I’ll be back writing this article again next week. Never fu*# with a winning streak.

Outrights

This is the portion of the article where Byron would normally break down his outright strategy for the week, usually by laying out a well-thought-out plan that features sound logic and some witty banter.

Unfortunately for you guys, I'm not as original as the Maniac, so I'll lean on a Hamlet-themed title that we'll call "To Rahm, Or Not To Rahm?". While I'm not at all qualified to analyze Shakespeare, it seems an appropriate fit for this week's Mexico Open, as I'm pretty sure Hamlet's words are a ponderance about life and death, while fading Jon Rahm this week feels almost like betting against death itself.

However, as many golf bettors will tell you, in order to live, you must be willing to die, with half measures rarely producing elite results. And so, in true Byron fashion, we'll brave the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune this week by selecting a few brave soldiers to march out onto this Vidanta Villarta battlefield against the 60-ton Abrams tank that is Rahm in hopes that there is a chink in the seemingly indestructible armor. Golf, after all, is hard. And Byron, after all, hates betting on Jon Rahm.

Gary Woodland ($7.50 @ +2500 Bet MGM)

I've long detested rostering Woodland in DFS formats, so this is a great way to grab some exposure to the Kansas Jayhawk on this slate. His volatility can make you seethe with rage while staring at a 5/6 lineup with Woody being the lone, uncooperative, ranger. However, that's no such concern with a saucy $7.50 outright, as there's little stress involved until the back nine on Sunday - should we be so fortunate.

I wouldn't dare attempt to talk myself (or you) into believing that Woodland is of the same ilk as Rahm or Finau, as there's been too many injuries and too much inconsistency for him to fall anywhere near those two. However, the 38-year-old is a major champion and - while his U.S. Open win at Pebble Beach feels like centuries ago - does possess elite-level talent.

Woodland's problem has always been harnessing that talent consistently. That still remains a significant issue, though there have been some reasons for optimism this year, including a T9 at Riviera and a T14 at Augusta National. With the talent - underlying as it may be - in place, form that appears to be trending, and a T24 in the first edition of this Mexico Open last year on his CV, I'm willing to gamble that Woody makes some noise this week.

Nicholai Hojgaard ($7.50 @ +3000 DK Sportsbook)

I've been in this game a long time and I've found that betting on talent is usually a good idea. While the phenoms might not always develop into what we'd originally hoped, they are phenoms for a reason and you'd much rather be early than late. The 22-year-old Hojgaard - along with his talented brother, Rasmus - fits the wunderkind mold, as he already has two DP World Tour victories under his belt and has played well enough in his limited U.S. appearances this year to have earned Special Temporary Membership on the PGA Tour.

Taking his talent and potential into account, a runner-up finish at Corales last month feels especially notable, as Hojgaard performed the feat on a long, resort-locale golf course with Paspalum greens and breezy conditions, an environment that's very similar to what he'll face this week at Vidanta Villarta. He's a destroyer of golf balls off the tee and ranks first in this week's field in Driving Distance. While I don't know if he'll have the opportunity to nearly ace a Par-4 like he did last week at the Zurich Classic, the Dane has the potential to overpower this driver-friendly layout.

Aaron Rai ($7.50 @ +4700 FanDuel)

I'm bullish on the Englishman's overall potential and feel like the form is trending in the right direction. Rai fired an opening-round 63 at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago, only to have his putter turn to ice over the next three days. He's gained strokes T2G in 9 of 10 2023 starts, so if the putter does cooperate for him this week we must feel good about his chances on a Vidanta layout where he posted a T24 last year.

Emiliano Grillo ($5.00 @ +5500 FanDuel)

It just wouldn't feel right to cover this column for Byron and not include his PGA muse, Emiliano Grillo. Perhaps it's no coincidence that since Byron and Grillo started getting all chummy on Twitter a few months ago, the Argentinian has started cooking up some better results, including a pair of top-fives during the Swing Season, and most recently, a T7 at the RBC Heritage, an outing in which he gained nearly four strokes on Approach. We ain't fadin' Grillo on my watch.

Ben Martin ($5.00 @ +6500 FanDuel)

Since we tossed in one of Byron's "Pet Players" in Emiliano Grillo, we'll tag one of mine in Ben Martin. I can't quite remember what got me on the Martin bandwagon, but I've been holding on for dear life over the last several weeks. His rounds can be Spieth-like roller coasters and he ranks fifth in this week's field in Birdies or Better Gained over his last 24 rounds.

Akshay Bhatia ($4.00 @ +10000 BetMGM)

I'll use the same thought process as with Hojgaard, in that Akshay is really freakin' talented and can go loooow. The 21-year-old phenom is going to have a breakthrough on the PGA Tour at some point and this feels like the type of spot where it could happen when considering his past success in the Bahamas, Bermuda, Puerto Rico, and Corales...weak field, scoreable conditions, and a breezy, resort environment.

Michael Kim ($1.75 @ +15000 Caesar's) & Kevin Chappell ($1.75 @ +22500 Caesar's) 

Everybody loves a good comeback story and I'm pulling for both of these two. Each has reached the mountaintop in their own way, only to have their games come tumbling down due to injuries in Chappell's case and the inability to handle success in Kim's. Both have played under-the-radar good as of late.

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Placings

This Mexico Open slate is vastly different from what we've largely seen in recent months on the PGA Tour, as this tournament is closer to a Swing Season event than a "Designated" one, which leads to loads of volatility. We are betting T20/40s on all our outrights, at minimized stakes on FanDuel.

• Patrick Rodgers T20 +120 ($5)
• Aaron Rai T20 +180 ($5)
• Dylan Wu T20 +320 ($5)
• Akshay Bhatia T20 +340 ($5)
• Michael Kim T40 +125 ($5)
• Harry Hall T40 +150 ($5)
• Augusto Nunez T40 +160 ($5)
• Kevin Chappell T40 +200 ($5)
• Carson "Don't Call Me Cameron" Young T40 +290 ($5)

Matchups

Matchups are fun because your horse doesn't even have to make the cut to win. In this spot, I'm simply going to lean on a player that I feel is very dependable vs. one that I feel isn't. Kinda like a golf writer that goes on vacation for the Mexico Open vs. one that sticks it out. Rai has gained strokes T2G in nine of his last 10 starts, while Beau Hossler has lost strokes on Approach in eight of his last 10 starts.

• Aaron Rai (-108) o Beau Hossler (FanDuel) ($10)

The Farewell Fiver

 First-Round Leader: Akshay Bhatia +7500 on DraftKings

It just feels like an Akshay kinda week. Yes, FRLs are tough to nail, but our $5 outlay here offers a juicy payout of $380! Bhatia has already recorded two rounds of 63 this season and can go on nuclear-hot birdie binges when things are clicking. In a volatile tournament such as this one, let's have some fun and gamble!

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